Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/4/2024 14:26

#Sword77, our royalty over Amapa should have survived the restructuring Cadence have done, last time I asked the company it was in litigation, but their view was it still stands..

Dugbe is moving forward, updated DFS work in progress 2024, it will get built or sold, but our 2% royalty stands over it..

I agree BKY/BRN are a long way off yet, Incoa is the closest, but also the smallest earner, but if it comes through, USD2-3M a year is still adding..

[sword77] 26/4/2024 12:35

You forgot Amapa iron ore project ^^

But I wouldn't bet on BKY, Piaui, Incoa and Dugbe.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/4/2024 11:45

#Sword77, plenty going on behind the scenes..

Capstone Santo Domingo updated DFS expected during the first half of 2024 (May/June)
BHP - WM build update August 2024
Incoa - update pre FY
Piaui - updated full scale DFS underway
BKY are back to court to appeal the overturning of their existing permits
Dugbe is progressing well now through VEIN, new BOD appointment from ESAN
VB ramp up to full scale 2,500 tonnes a year * 22.82% (our share will be 600 tonnes or 30 deliveries from 2025)
Share buyback work in progress
Royalty additions work in progress tba

[sword77] 26/4/2024 11:30

Yes, elimination of uncertainty should help the sp, in addition I also expect good news from Capstone. If management does aswell they want to be finished even earlier with the BB.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/4/2024 09:06

#Sword77, I too came to that conclusion a while back on the news that spending could pause at WM, BHP will want to leverage their position at Gov level with 3,000 jobs on the hook, if it comes in terms on NW grants/subsidies we will see how that plays out with their build review decision in August..

The BB is 62/100% complete so far, the company is in the market most days but not all, treasury shares coming up on 10M, and when more plates are spinning they will be worth a whole lot more, 3 months grace before the BHP update which is sure to be an share price driver.. :o)

[sword77] 26/4/2024 08:40

Yes, they will continue to build WM, I am very confident.

They just want to put pressure on government regarding Nickel West subsidies.

I believe Ecora is confident as well regarding WM, so I guess they want to finish share purchases before BHP communicates their decision.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/4/2024 07:49

#Sword77, BHP bid declined, Copper 10,000 a tonne, Nickel 19,000 a tonne, BHP want access to Copper, an interesting development, they have already picked up Oz minerals for the same so why not push on and built out what you already have..?

[sword77] 25/4/2024 15:01

@LLB no cash involved, all stock offer

[quepassa] 25/4/2024 06:54

What is astonishing about the Share BuyBack is the speed with which it is being executed.

The broker has irrevocable authority to buy £7.9m/$10m of shares over a six month period from 27/3/24 to 27/9.

According to my calculations, the broker has already bought 5.87 million shares in less than a month. Using a guesstimate average of 80p per share, that's around £4.7 million already spent - or approaching 60%.

The broker started buying shares on 27/3 at an average of 74.17p.
On 16th. April, the broker paid 87.4p.

Yesterday, the broker paid 79.95p.



Despite the on-going heavy buying by the broker, this has not been able to continue to support the price and the share has fallen over the last ten days or so, from a peak of 87.4p to 79.95p yesterday

Clearly, there are a lot of willing sellers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andymunchkin] 24/4/2024 20:04

bountyhunter6 Oct '22 - 08:18 - 4 of 798
0 2 0
Morning, 'Ecora' is a long term hold for me, the transition from coal to commodities required to support a sustainable future being a welcome one.
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bountyhunter6 Oct '22 - 08:24 - 5 of 798
0 1 0
I've added a 5 year APF chart so we don't lose track of the history.
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isTis pUmp being dUmpD @ boUnts??

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 20:01

Worth remembering WM is a dual royalty, with a 2.0% net smelter return on the West Musgrave copper and nickel project in Australia, average annual production is expected to be 26,000 tonnes of Ni and 32,000 tonnes of Cu..

Clearly the stronger Copper prices get the more weight there is on the finish build decision by BHP in August..

[riskvsreward] 24/4/2024 19:57

Looks like the new CEO has spent a lot of money and not getting much in return. The only return is from an old asset on rundown.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 18:18

#Cocopops, your glass in half empty again..:o)

FY2023 - the VB stream produced four deliveries in Q4 taking the number of deliveries for 2023 to 11..

FY2024 - guidance remains unchanged at 12-16 deliveries of cobalt subject to scheduled ramp of underground activity in H2..

Net debt up from 75M (Q4) to 87M (Q1), in January 2024 the Group made the final 9.2M deferred consideration payment to South32, most likely why but we will have another +20M income over Q2 to reduce the debt..

[cocopah] 24/4/2024 16:56

Without Kestrel, income is dire! 2 deliveries from VB in the quarter, bet we’ll struggle to get 10 this year, no matter the plan. £87m in debt (the buyback is money down the drain), no near-term accretive deals, divi slashed and overpaid for S32 … on top of it all smugmeister MBL sits in front of investors with zero humility. Shambolic.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 08:38

FY2023 1.6MT
Kestrel Q1-2024 660KT sales.
FY2024 1.9MT (est)
Kestrel Q2-2024 est about the same.
Kestrel H2-2024 balance of 1.9 MT sales.

VB - Q1 2024 - 2 deliveries
VB - Q2 2024 - 3 deliveries (est)
VB - Q3 2024 - 4 deliveries (est)
VB - Q4 2024 - 5 deliveries (est)

[quepassa] 24/4/2024 08:10

CORE PORTFOLIO:-

DOWN 9% QoQ.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2024 08:28

#Cocopops, the buyback is only 59% complete, so 41% to come.. :o)

Q1-2024 results tomorrow morning, see how the deferred Kestrel income stacks up for us.. (ref Q1-2023 - USD22.9M)

27.03.2024 - Kestrel saleable volumes from Ecora royalty area in 2024 expected to be 15-25% ahead of the 2023 volumes. Majority of 2024 Kestrel royalty receipts expected in H1..

Kestrel runoff in FY2026

[cocopah] 23/4/2024 08:21

MBL clearly out of his depth and now the buyback is complete we really will see the share price fall. Bad luck tends to follow poor decisions. Dropping like a stone. Shambolic.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/4/2024 17:25

Oz minerals had already started building WM, nobody would forecast BHP making a bid, then the Nickel price softening resulting in the new owners making their own decision on a possible pause on the mine build, due diligence is not going to plan for that variable..

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 17:19

Like due diligence on WM not going ahead as planned. Hard to see that one coming

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 17:14

“To be fair” as you put it … one expects the CEO to have done due diligence and invested at the right price and time … not bet the farm on a generalisation.

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 15:21

To be fair, it was a clearly telegraphed strategy to move in that direction. All holders had time to sell out before the share price decline if they didn't agree with the path management were taking. Captain hindsight has great investment results.

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 14:20

Interesting read albeit from a vested interest … [...] … what a pity our gung-ho CEO chose to bet the house like he did.