Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[swanvesta] 03/4/2024 11:43

While everyone is moaning about MBL... As far as I'm concerned the rot began with Voisey's Bay, which seemed to me too reliant on high Cobalt prices and ZIRP forever. That was under the watch of Julian Treger.

[tommygriff] 29/3/2024 15:53

Does Julian still hold shares?

[bagpuss67] 29/3/2024 13:57

Just seems to be such a common theme amongst small listed companies. Some shocking cases of mismanagement. Unfortunately I seem to have a fair few of them in my portfolio.. Take a look at DG19. Unbelievable.

[santos123] 29/3/2024 12:24

Hi QP.

I do not normally read the drivel you write.

But in 758 I have to agree with your summery.
The dividend needs to rise, because of the lack of cash, and the royalties in the future that may or may not pay out.

The only way that can happen is a share price fall.

I do not have a crystal ball, so have no idea what will happen tomorrow, never mind far out into the future.
Buying so many royalties that are not producing income now, or in the near future was a huge mistake.

There were also other mistakes that have been talked about already, the B.O.D. have ruined this once great company.

Santos123

[quepassa] 28/3/2024 17:44

Maths.

Share price 75p
Dividend 3p

Yield 4%

By comparison, Interest rate on a high-street/internet savings account 4.5%.


If this is a pure dividend/ yield play paying 4% , the yield is now poor compared to a risk-free FSCS backed savings account.

The risk premium for holding this share should dictate a significantly higher yield than 4% in my opinion.

Perhaps a yield of 6-7% would be a more suitable risk/reward return.

And a 6-7% yield (on the basis of a 3p dividend) drives a share price of some 45p to 50p.



all imo. dyor.
qp

[cocopah] 28/3/2024 15:17

His smugness (MBL) is about as good at capital allocation as Southgate is at understanding free-flowing attacking football!

He should’ve apologised for the destruction of shareholder value and being late to the party with near-term accretive income. At one stage he said that those kind of deals were not available … and then later he said that they were just the kind of deals that they were now looking for - clueless.

Basically, he is asking investors who are at least 40% or more down on their investment to suck it up for about 4 years plus, (with a 3p per share per year dividend) whilst income remains depressed.

The only person who might gain from the share buyback is himself who bought shares at 76p and then panicked into a buyback when the share price dipped to 70p … not what I call an ethical move!

The share price might’ve improved marginally over the last day or two (and this may continue as the buyback takes place) but there is no hiding from the fact that near term income and by that I mean over the next 3 years looks awful … and as a result I fail to see what would be the impetus for any kind of sustained share price rally.

What a mess!😡

[1knocker] 28/3/2024 10:05

The CEO does come across as conceited and self satisfied, notwithstanding having nothing to be satisfied about. I hope it is just for the cameras!

It would be reassuring to see him at least go through the motions of disappointment with the share price performance and regret over the dividend cut.

It may just me, but the '4 pillars' stuff irritates me too. In the context in which it was used it sounded straight out of the buzz phrases handbook (Noddy edition). If it had been rolled out as an explanation of a royalty diversification policy, or a split between immediate payers and development projects, it might have meant something.

Anyhow, for reasons which pass me by, the share price has had a better couple of days than it has for months. So i guess someone in the market must regard the results and announcements, and the cheery grin of the CEO more highly than I do!

[andydaf] 27/3/2024 19:14

Rarely have i seen a ceo who has destroyed value on a massive scale,diluted shareholders and cut a dividend in half appear as conceited as MLB on brr media today.Hopefully the new chairman will remind MLB its his job to make shareholders money.Should have gone after the thermal coal royalty fiasco.He enjoyed massive luck with the queensland royalty change sadly that now seems to have runout.Why would new investors wish to invest in a risky finance company(some projects do not come to fruition)paying a yeild going forward of around 4%?Unfortunately i topped up the other day and 1knocker was right about the dividend.GLA

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2024 17:47

#Cyfran101 - the groups obligation to advance the USD20M in funding under the financing agreement is subject to a number of conditions, including Incoas successful construction and operation of the project by 31 January 2025. Should the conditions precedent not be satisfied by the 30 April 2025, the Groups obligation to advance funding under the financing agreement will be terminated.

An interesting day today which did surprise me, if saving USD10M on the dividend and spending it on a BB is the catalyst for an share price reversal, long may it continue..

[cyfran101] 27/3/2024 16:39

Noted the following small comment:

"Absent the Incoa project meeting its phase II conditions, the Group has no further capital commitments"

So is that a further investment to sweep from the Portfolio?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2024 12:26

The USD10M saved from the 2024 dividend cut roughly squares with the buyback spend, so no net gain here, I doubt S32 are very happy with their 43M shares (16% holding) and 154 pence cost either, worth watching what they do next..

Kestrel run off has always been an income issue, but we are covered for 2024/2025 and some of 2026, however the gap between VB ramping up over 2024 and WM adding is now far less clear, the BHP decision has been and will be a drag on the share until they decide what to do with the mine build, Piaui is 5 years out yet, Santo Domingo could be less but their FID on a build is not due until H2-2025 so that is 2027/28 earliest for any income..

Also not a fan of the Narrabri divestment, although we do still have income and proceeds to come back from it..

SP up a little today so far but time to consider options and portfolio weightings going forward for income investors..

[brucie5] 27/3/2024 11:58

Well sometimes a dividend cut presages a change in chart direction... That can also be the consolation prize. The underlying business isn't going anywhere, though there may/may not be better homes for your hard earned.

[1knocker] 27/3/2024 11:25

On 19 March I posted that either the dividend would be cut or the share price would rise, as the two were totally out of kilter. I also said that if the dividend was cut by 50 or 60%, the current share price looks about right.

Sadly, that post has proved prescient.

Even 100p now looks a long way off.

I have made a mistake here. I didn't like the move away from coal, and I was worried that the move into battery metals was mistimed and at too high a price. that move was made when green revolution optimism was at its height, before the cost and difficulty of the 'revolution' was properly considered.

We have to accept it - the new CEO has not done well. timing is everything in the mining sector, and he has got his timing badly wrong.

When a company with heavy debt spends its (its creditors') money buying its own shares I am not encouraged. When it does so when its shares are about fair value (as I think they now are)I am distinctly unimpressed.

I think we have to be honest and accept that the new CEO has destroyed value. He has harmed the company, and thus us as shareholders. There is nothing in the company release to indicate that the company acknowledges that, or that it will do better in future. Far from it: I consider the share buy back another mistake from a management which does not see a clear path forward. Whether CEO's days are numbered remains to be seen, but even if he does get the old heave ho that will usher in anoher period of uncertainty under a new hand.

I shall be looking to reduce here, perhaps take my medecine and sell out completely.

Full marks to the sceptics. You were right.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2024 10:20

#The Deacon, very disappointing re the dividend cut, fortunately for us longer term holders we will have already received a sizeable return to offset against initial capital outlay, the next 2.125 cents payout coming will also help but moving forward holders might be considering their options, there are other opportunities out there..

Did anyone catch the BRR presentation, was there a QnA..?

[the deacon] 27/3/2024 09:18

Julian Treger must be shaking his head in disbelief this morning. MBL's job done attitude has largely led to this mess.

[cocopah] 27/3/2024 08:40

Buybacks are fine in theory but they don’t necessarily result in a rerate (BP is a classic example). They do tend to work when near-term income looks good (something that isn’t the case here) or debt is negligible (again not the case here). Watch the share price fall as people work through the disappointing numbers and dividend news.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2024 08:25

#Swanvesta, yes, buy back starts today, approx c10M shares out of 257M, better spent on debt reduction IMO, disappointing for income holders and the payout reduced to bi-annual from quarterly too..

[swanvesta] 27/3/2024 08:09

Has the trigger not already been pulled?! Peel Hunt have the authority to start buying from today.

[quepassa] 27/3/2024 08:06

And let's first of all wait to see them pulling the trigger in earnest on the Share Buy Back program before anyone puts the bunting out

[swanvesta] 27/3/2024 08:02

Is the buyback really that token? It seems to me it represents a large portion of the dividend cut.

[cocopah] 27/3/2024 07:56

I can’t see MBL being given the time 2028-2030 to ‘realise’; his pipe-dream. Could do with a take-over IMHO by a larger organisation with a better BoD. Right now I’d swallow the loss if that happened within 10% of ‘NAV’. The chance of seeing £1.28 again in this decade is slim (god knows how others with a more substantial investment at a higher purchase price are feeling). MBL should be put on the rack at the Investor meeting tomorrow.

[quepassa] 27/3/2024 07:37

And all those hundreds of posts of yours, LLB, telling everybody how safe the dividend was and that the share price didn't matter because of the reliable dividend...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/3/2024 07:31

#Cocopops, very disappointing news, I agree the token buyback is a waste, just reduce debt, the last buyback held in treasury has still not been sold on as was expected..The payout policy was only relatively recently changed to a 8.5 cents a year, 2 poor decisions IMO but WM could get mothballed, and Piaui needs to be paid for from income..