Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 07/10/2023 14:23

Interesting how Uranium Royalty Group are showing Ecora on page 6 of their latest (October 2023) Corporate/Investor presentation which details the YTD performance of more than a dozen peer-group royalty streaming companies.

hXXps://www.uraniumroyalty.com/investor-centre/presentation/




Not flattering to say the least.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[fabius1] 07/10/2023 13:55

LLB - Noted. Thanks.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/10/2023 13:18

#Fabius1 - JT left 31 March 2022 (having led as CEO since 2013) overseeing the VB deal
MBL closed the S32 deal in July 2022 but JT would have been instrumental in the build up to that deal..
MBL led the recent Vizcachitas copper deal which is a good starter

We will have to wait and see what comes next, but as you will know the timing for opportunity is presented by market conditions, and with softer commodity prices those will now come our way, the wrong decisions are made rushing into deal making when commodity prices were high..

[fabius1] 07/10/2023 11:16

Notwithstanding the fundamental picture, I am not convinced by the current management. I was in APF back in the day when it was run by a bunch of canny and crusty old accountants who knew their onions. My increasing concern across the investing world is that there is an abundance of managers who lack real world experience away from central government/big corporate dogma.

[1knocker] 06/10/2023 20:01

que and llb, the moral seems to me to be pretty clear. Accumulate cash, don't chase shares, and keep good lookout for some bad news or a heavy fall before topping up. When investors are jumpy, there is a good chance of an overshoot to the downside. I hope I found a couple this week when I bough more DEC at 68 and IMB at 1596. Time will tell if I dived in too soon. Its no bad thing to keep in mind that ANY share can fall 10%, from ANY price.

We also need to be very well attuned to the way the wind is blowing, even if we do not know why. The big hit to AAZ followed a lengthy period of price weakness. Sometimes though the storm strikes out of an apparently clear sky: eg XP Power and Spirent, two of my positions, happily not large ones as I had only put a toe in the water again with Spirent after selling out a fairly big holding at a cracking profit some years ago, and I did at least have the sense to sell 25% of my XP Power when it rocketed a few years back. The only real precaution one can take there is to cull holdings with weak balance sheets, and those vulnerable to downturns in turnover. The former (weak balance sheets) are easy enough to spot, the latter not se easy as barring utilities virtually any company can suffer a sales contraction.

I expected this year to be harder than last where it was easy enough to see that energy and basic materials miners were the sectors to be overweight and most of us had a pretty good year. I was right: this year certainly is proving damn difficult, and I am down. It is disconcerting rather than reassuring that my two of my few big winners have been Rolls Royce and Marks and Sparks in which I opened small positions at the end of last year in the hope (rather than expectation) of (modest) gains! The only big shift that I can claim to have got right is uranium, and I took my positions there about 2 years ago!

[quepassa] 06/10/2023 15:33

This share reacts increasingly to the drivers of the fixed income market.

Strong US payroll figures announced figures today when softer ones for hoped for.

This means the FED is now more likely to raise rates again.

In turn, this directly hits the commodities market. And in particular any stocks which have set out their stall as an income/yield/streaming stock.


This share is likely in my view to fall further until it is clear that the FED has cooled the US economy sufficiently to curb inflation. For the moment, it's not there yet and pundits are now increasingly predicting a further US rate rise.

State-side Fixed income yields are surging today in anticipation and de facto the underlying instruments are falling significantly in price.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/10/2023 13:45

#1Knocker, agreed, but the same couild be said for any share with a payout, and we do not need another miss this year.. :o), bad enough DLG dropping out, then AAZ to boot..

Steady as we go here, but Q3/Q4 will be light compared to H1, however we do still have some Narrabri income to come from the sale of the coal assets in 2021..

05.09.2023 - whilst not included in portfolio contribution, the Group has continued to benefit from the price linked contingent consideration in conjunction with the Narrabri disposal..

[1knocker] 06/10/2023 13:33

With China (big buyer of metals) in a mess and likely poor Q3 results to be announced it seems worth holding off from any purchase in the hope of a further price drop. Nothing is certain, but it seems to me to be the way to bet. If there were any words of caution about the dividend (unlikely, but not impossible) the drop could be big.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/10/2023 08:59

Stating the obvious but:

High Oil/Gas prices result in higher producer costs and consumer inflation
Higher inflation leads to higher interest rates
Higher interest rates lead to a stronger USD
A stronger USD results in weaker commodity prices
Weaker commodity prices result in lower income

The real Q is for how long will we be in this higher inflationary environment and can it go higher still..? OPEC+/BRICS are sending us inflation through turning the taps down to shore up the OnG prices..

Some very interesting market dynamics currently in the bond markets unsettling equity market prices as we get towards risk free 5/6% yields sucking money out of the LSE..

We can get 6.2% from the NSnI issue 72 bond but it is declarable taxable income and 20/40/45% of that comes off, so anything yielding more than 5% tax free inside the ISA wrapper is doing just fine for base rate tax payers and a whole lot better for higher rate payers.. :o)

The Q3 results here will not be good in terms of income with Kestrel contributions minimal, but our next royalties are making strong progress towards when Kestrel cuts off in 2026, specifically VB/WM income, so if holders take a longer term 5-10 year view here, pick up the dividends, roll them back in IMO this will still outperform when we are back up to our stable USD100M income..

[dogberry202000] 05/10/2023 23:49

The share price now reflects the much lower prices of the base metals in the royalty holdings. Now is the best time to buy. Even a cursory look at the chart over time suggests this is so. Base metals will be a strong source of value in an inflationary environment. I've been adding all week.

[andydaf] 05/10/2023 19:09

MBL sold the thermal coal royalty which imho opinion was a cardinal sin.However MBL i think really believes in the green energy transformation,as many on this board will guess i think its nuts.Having said that i like commodities and will be looking to buy back my stake after the q3 results which i expect to be dreadful.Que might be right that the share price has furthur to fall but as many will know the best time to buy commodities and therefore royalty companies is when prices are on the floor.Always wise to hedge ones bets though my fossil fuel companies are doing the business as far as dividends go.As always GLA

[pockstones] 05/10/2023 11:49

Hmm QUe your gurning here is always welcome as marking a turning point so keep them coming though I agree with you you might be a shade early 110 downwards normally you are spot on
Around a pound happy to add there is a growth story building which will be reflected in the dividend

[cocopah] 05/10/2023 07:12

MBL continues to preside over the destruction of shareholder value (the lower income for at least a couple of years will surely see the share price decrease even further from here). He does come across as a pompous Nero to me. At the end of the day you can hang your hat on green credentials but if it ain’t paying …

[quepassa] 04/10/2023 06:08

The share price has fallen from 190p in 2022 to less than 100p yesterday.

But during this period, there has not been a SINGLE comment over the last 18 months by a certain poster which is anything other than astonishingly bullish. And no "red flag" such as the clearly tumbling share price graph has ever been called out.

Not a single instance.

And yesterday's comment will go down in the annals of investing as perhaps the most crass and charlatanical of all, namely that "the share price is not material".


Beware that you are being peddled a very false bill of goods.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[dogberry202000] 03/10/2023 23:57

Balanced, as always, Laurence. Of course, Everyone would prefer lower debt yet this increases and decreases as new royalty agreements are made as well as the proceeds of the royalties over time. I'm looking forward to the company building out their uranium portfolio by doing more business with uranium companies over the medium and longer term.

Graham, thankfully, I'll get a decent dividend as I have held a position in ECOR for a few years. The quarterly payments are always something to look forward to while we wait for the bull market in commodities to get into its stride.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/10/2023 18:00

#Dogberry, we say it as we see it, but we are not blind perma-bulls, if there are red flags we will call them out as we see them too..

The dividend is well covered from income, we earn and report in dollars, we have plenty of fire power for new acquisitions, the stronger dollar is really hurting some commodity prices and this is where we do our deal making at the lows, not buying in at highs, we also might do another BB to let some holders out if they really want to sell..

We need GBP18M/USD22M to cover the dividend once at 8.5 cents, adjusted earnings in H1 remained resilient at USD23.4M or 9.06 cents per share (just from H1).

Kestrel is winding off 50% for 2024/5/6, but other PF contributors will be winding up, ie VB/WM for starters..

Net debt as at 30 June 2023 of USD43.3M
Cash USD6.3M
Liquidity for deal making USD150M

[grahamburn] 03/10/2023 17:47

dogberry. True, though you've missed out on the dividend later this month.

[quepassa] 03/10/2023 17:32

a certain poster used to come across as genuinely interested in the share with some knowledge and credibility.

now more akin to a desperate ramper pushing something whiffing of snake-oil as the share price has plummeted by near 50% in less than 12 months.

there is every chance that this share will fall significantly further.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[dogberry202000] 03/10/2023 16:35

I've been waiting for sub 100p. It's a great buy with a very useful 6.5% divi around this area and it's great reading posters like Laurence Llewelyn Binliner and The Deacon who provide such balanced thinking on this Board.

[the deacon] 03/10/2023 16:20

Yeah I'd like to see some buybacks here.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/10/2023 13:17

#The Deacon, what chance another share BB at 100 pence, same as last time would be just fine.. :o)

25.09.2020 - APF PLC is pleased to announce the initiation of a share buyback programme to purchase up to GBP 5M of the Companys ordinary shares, (c5M purchsed)

Purchases pursuant to the Programme will be carried out in accordance with the Company’s existing general authority to repurchase Ordinary Shares (at the AGM in 2020, shareholders gave the Company authority to purchase a maximum of 18,147,039 ordinary shares)

We went from 100-150 pence between September 2020 and May 2021..

[quepassa] 03/10/2023 09:35

"the share price is not material"

HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT?

Someone who bought at 150p or higher will have suffered a massive capital loss.

Ask them if they think the share price is material to their investment


Have you not heard of the basic concept of RETURN ON INVESTMENT?

If you bought the share at 150p, your yield on investment is very different to someone who buys at 100p.

Thing is that it is 50/50 that interest rates will go higher and if so, this share which trades more like a bond nowadays, will fall further in price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/10/2023 09:14

#The Deacon, same logic here, well covered dividends, as interest rates go up we need more protection from the cover as our debt/costs rise, but our R/S income is shielded from inflation.. :o)

We can trundle along here, the share price is not material when income is the primary driver for investing..

PF management this year, and last is more about sheltering from the storms bought in by higher rates and inflation, and rolling dividends back into ever cheaper shares, or building cash and waiting to do the same..

[the deacon] 03/10/2023 09:01

Indeed. Well covered dividends are starting to become endangered species. Adding when I can here. Great opportunity to add for the long haul