Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[1knocker] 10/3/2024 15:12

Agreed. a prediction without a timeframe is no prediction at all.

Few predictions are worth much, even with a timeframe. The beginning of wisdom is to recognise how little we know, or can even make useful guesses at.

The best I can do is look only at profit making companies with resilient balance sheets, and then try to buy low and sell high (or at any rate higher), and to remind myself every day
1. That when I make a mistake with a purchase, generally because the company runs into long term unexpected headwinds or does something expensive and silly, the earliest bale out is generally the cheapest,
2. it does not matter how many good opportunities to buy I miss, because like busses, there will always be another coming along behind, and
3. the bad shares you avoid buying make at least as much difference to portfolio returns as the good ones you do buy.

I guess I am a timorous soul!

[bhoddhisattva] 10/3/2024 11:46

The broken clock is right twice a day in other words 1kmocker!

I’d argue a prediction should have some idea of timescale for it to be genuine.

[1knocker] 10/3/2024 10:04

The bottom did subsequently fall out of Scottish Mortgage.

It is an interesting question: 'How much too early does a prediction which ultimately comes true need to be to be classed as wrong, rather than too early'?

For years i resisted buying Scottish Mortgage because i feared I had missed the boat and because it was at a premium to NAV, only to see it keep on rising. I could have made big money there, had I got out again anywhere near the top. But I would probably have been as reluctant to sell when it was falling as i was to buy when it was rising!

As it is, I HAVE now bought, and am currently 9% up (and still at a big discount to NAV). Was Que right or wrong? The answer, I suppose, is that every prediction of a fall, and most predictions of a rise, will ultimately be proved 'correct' to some degree at least, provided that the prediction includes no time-frame.

[pockstones] 09/3/2024 14:24

Dear Que,
Anyone who followed you in Scottish Mortgage lost rather a lot perhaps a little honesty nearer to home might be good

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/3/2024 08:22

Nobody noticed the Nickel price rebound over the last month..?

16,000 up to 18,000 per tonne, sure to have some leaning on BHP/WM decisions to progress the build (or not)..

[quepassa] 08/3/2024 09:57

Yes but doggo won't comment on his recent October words that "It's a great bargain here"at 90p when price now 73p.

Anyone who listened to his words has already lost near 20% of their capital.

Like LLB and others, he'll try to sucker in other poor punters to support the position he just took - a total lack of honesty and integrity.

But when it comes to losing money or being honest about his words, it's a completely different story and it's avoidance at all costs.

The vast majority of you guys are totally dishonest in your bulletin board postings.

Look at the share price graph. That doesn't lie.

All imo. Dyor.
QP

[stemis] 08/3/2024 09:41

Yes, remember QP haunting the GATC board when they were struggling

[quepassa] 08/3/2024 09:23

doggo's 542 of 31/10/23 refers:-


"I've been shopping........It's a great bargain here"


down 18% in four months

price then 90p. price now 74p

care to comment??


a fool and his money are soon parted

[dogberry202000] 08/3/2024 09:12

You beat me to it bhoddhisattva,

Like others invested in ECORA, I know the reasons why I invested here - and I am comfortable with them even during a draw down in the prices of non precious metals.

What is QUE doing here, if not acting as a troll?

[bhoddhisattva] 08/3/2024 08:35

QP is just a troll who claims to have no position or interest in Ecora yet regularly posts negative or snide comments here - ask yourself why.
ADVFN should bar such repetitively trolls.

[pockstones] 07/3/2024 19:17

Never a truer word said Que your sale of Scottish Mortgage at five quid on its way to thirteen must still sting.

Nice to have you back again.

[quepassa] 07/3/2024 15:37

doggo's 542 of 31/10/23 refers:-


"I've been shopping........It's a great bargain here"


down 18% in four months

price then 90p. price now 74p

care to comment??


a fool and his money are soon parted

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/3/2024 15:29

1Knocker, there are some much bigger players in the royalty space than ECOR, we will have to wait and see what comes along, the WM deal from S32 is a drag, OZ minerals made the FID and were all set to build it before their BHP bid came along, hopefully they will progress it all the same, but we have 24/25 to get by on for now with Kestrel contributing nicely..

[dogberry202000] 07/3/2024 15:15

"au contraire" ? LOL! Vous et un pipe!

[0x3f] 07/3/2024 12:35

I'm surprised they haven't bid already. They must be considering it, the possibility of picking up some world class royalties on the cheap.

[quepassa] 07/3/2024 12:09

no bid likely or foreseeable - so let's just squash that old chestnut.

au contraire - the share price IS behaving as one would rationally expect.

i.e downwards...

.... in tandem with the bleak environment for many commodity prices, especially
in the steel-making space, combined with increasing challenges faced by certain portfolio companies.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[1knocker] 07/3/2024 11:56

There is a very marked contrast between the altius and the Ecora price performances. Altius is well up over 5 and 10 years, and has rebounded sharply over the past few weeks. Ecora is at 10 year lows and shows no sign of a rebound. Ecor has of course paid a multiple of Altius dividend, so a fair long term comparison should be on a total return basis, but the divergence has nevertheless been striking over the past few weeks.

I would actually feel easier in my mind seeing posts justifying the price performance than posts saying that the horizon is clear. I grow uneasy when shares are not behaving as one might rationally expect!

One thing is for sure, if all is as well with Ecor as some (pretty convincingly to my eye) assert, at this price someone should be running the rule over it with a view to a bid!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 07/3/2024 08:15

2022 VB - 19 deliveries (380 tonnes) income USD18.8M
2023 VB - 11 deliveries (220 tonnes) income USD5.6M
2024 VB - 12/16 deliveries (240-320 tonnes / USD8.4M income at todays prices)
2025 VB - 570 tonnes forecast and USD17M income at todays prices

[cocopah] 06/3/2024 23:33

MBL so obviously out of his depth and hugely responsible for this mess. He always has that smug smile on his face when presenting too (when he should be full of humility). Completely decimated a great company that was Anglo Pacific. VB will probably contribute £4m at best this year! 🫣🫣

[podgyted] 06/3/2024 21:27

The value destruction here given Kestral's swansong is eye-watering.

I'm more and more of the opinion they over-paid for VB and S32.

They are suffering now because they went with the fashion for transition metals - as normal fashion only lasts a couple of years.

I'm used to delays in mining stocks but these guy's take it to extremes. Summary of the Development Portfolio - Nothing is happening this decade.

Really surprised it only fell 2% today - but it gave me a reasonable opportunity to finally depart early on.

GL

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 06/3/2024 19:29

#The Deacon Incoa rests on achieving milestones over 2024, IF they do not, the deal is off, but we follow on from Orion for tranche 2 so it has not cost us anything yet, it is a right to buy subject to meeting those conditions..

2024 major contributors outlook:
Kestrel + 10 to 20%
VB +10 to 25%
Mantos Blancos +10%

2024 income similar to 2023
2025 outlook the same
2026 is looking weaker right now for sure as Kestrel drops off and West Musgrave MIGHT get held back, but this is not a given just yet, and the company has 2 years to address income shortfalls by adding new near term royalties with the commodity cycle on our side for adding better value deals with bigger % NSR/GRR income..

[tommygriff] 06/3/2024 18:19

I see Julian Treger dumped this at the right time

[cocopah] 06/3/2024 15:56

Actually I can see this dropping below all time lows into the 50ps … there literally is no good news. What a mess! 😡

[the deacon] 06/3/2024 07:56

Disappointing. West Musgrave being delayed is a real kick in the teeth. Santo Domingo is promising, but given the current commodity environment I suspect there's no rush from Capstone there either. No mention of Incoa. Short/medium term pipeline looks threadbare. A lot rests on VB as Kestrel tails off. The other producing assets just aren't of sufficient scale to pick up the slack. Commodity downturn coming at the wrong time for this portfolio.

[cocopah] 06/3/2024 07:33

Dreadful update … income looks dire for at least 18-24 months … even the smarmy CEO might have helped himself to shares too early. Looks like I’ll have to wait even longer to get out at b/e. All that Kestrel money wasted. 🫣