Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the deacon] 03/11/2023 09:11

The LOM estimate was $77m attributable to ECOR from Dugbe (topping out at $8m/yr at peak). I've not seen any buyback/sale clause LLB - can you point me to it?There is a ratchet where if the output falls below 50koz/yr and the gold price is above $1800 then the 2% becomes a 2.5% NSR. Sometimes there's a partial buyback option for the operator (say 1%), but haven't seen one in this particular agreement.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/11/2023 07:08

#1Knocker, those were some bargains at 82/83 pence, very nice additions and 8% to sit on them and wait..ECOR has an option to sell the HUM royalty for USD15M or keep it, a 2% NSR could be much more valuable over time IF someone builds it, however we will have to wait and see how the strategic review goes but ESAN and VEIN could do a JV on Dugbe and move it forward..A much better day yesterday all round off the back of a rates hold and the outlook seems they have now peaked, the next ONS inflation data 15th will drive market direction..

[1knocker] 02/11/2023 20:29

In case I should be thought too downbeat on Ecora, I should perhaps reveal that I bought a few more at 83.3. Below about 95, perhaps as much as 115, it does look a pretty decent prospect to me, albeit that it may take a year or two for the share price to rise substantially (because of the coming income winter), but all being well we should be paid very satisfactorily to wait. There appears to me (famous last words) to be no reason to fear a dividend cut, though i am not expecting an increase.

When the price was in the mid 90s, put in what i thought to be a very low ball limit order at 83.5 and unlikely to trigger. It did, at 83.3. In a volatile market I highl;y recommend optimistic limit orders, both buy and sell. most do not trigger, but the odd one catches a big dip or spike.

For those building a position here, and prepared to hold for a couple of years, this seems to me to be a good opportunity to do so.

[the deacon] 02/11/2023 20:19

True, though there'll be precious metals royalty co's that'll pay over the odds for it. Given the small cap counterparty, iffy jurisdiction and outlier status within the portfolio it's probably the more attractive option

[1knocker] 02/11/2023 20:02

If it pays at all, it should be good for Ecora, I suppose. Doing business with Hummingbird is like taking sweets from a child.

[dartboard1] 02/11/2023 19:25

Probably why they took it off the website

[the deacon] 02/11/2023 19:19

I'd imagine they'd been keen to cash in on Dugbe when the time is right. As much as I like gold within the portfolio, it doesn't fit in the 'energy metals' focus that ECOR have nailed their flag to.

[1knocker] 02/11/2023 19:17

Please don't remind us that Ecora has struck a deal with Hummingbird !!

Every time the share price ticks up a bit and my hopes rise, someone reminds me that one of our royalties depends upon the least competent miner in the gold mining universe doing something it has never done before, and making a success of a project.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/11/2023 16:53

#Cyfran101, ECOR do have a royalty over Dugbe, I have asked the same Q recently and was told it is still active..

Well spotted.. :o)

[cyfran101] 02/11/2023 16:25

Just a quick question of low importance but thought I'd quickly ask. I thought they had an early stage gold royalty with Hummingbird in Dugbe, Liberia. That's no longer on their website under early stage and wondered what happened to that?

[quepassa] 31/10/2023 20:12

yawn. yawn. yawn.


watch out below.

[1knocker] 31/10/2023 19:43

So all you are really saying is that you think Ecora a poor investment, and have long thought that?

When did you sell, or did you never hold any?

If you see no prospect of a turn around, or any price at which you would wish to buy, why do you continue to follow the share?

As you say, you have already given warnings enough to those who are willing to hear, so your continued posting can't even serve any philanthropic purpose, can it?

[1knocker] 31/10/2023 19:09

qp, some reasoned analysis would be welcome. Why do you pick upon 50% rather than, say, 25% or 75%, or indeed 100% if you are merely extrapolating from the falls we have seen?

Ox, Congratulations. It always feels good to be up on a purchase at close on the day of purchase. Long may it continue. up, or at least hold today's closing price!

[quepassa] 31/10/2023 18:59

When it was 120 you said it couldn't fall
When it was 110 you said it couldn't fall
When it was 100 you said it couldn't fall
When it was 90 you said it couldn't fall.

But somebody did - at every stage.

There is every chance that this share will fall another 50% from here.


All imo.Dyor.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/10/2023 17:21

Was that the low today..?



KF - with pain comes opportunity, and we are positioned with liquidity to take advantage of it, Q3 should be the low in terms of income as VB and Kestrel come back in Q4/Q1 (8.25% yield at today prices).

[0x3f] 31/10/2023 14:13

Getting silly now. Just picked up a bunch at 82p.

[1knocker] 31/10/2023 12:04

I am happy to say that I also hold Altius. Even on a total return basis (the right way to look at returns) it has greatly outperformed Ecor. I am tempted to top up there, but the current exchange rate makes that an expensive option. It is also worth remembering that the strength of the dollar flatters its capital performance for a sterling investor.

I am also mulling further topping up trident, which is heavily down at present.

I don't see any sharp rebound for Ecoor until we get a lot closer to the end of its earnings winter, and if it should cut the dividend ('rebase' it is the euphemism managements prefer to use) who knows how low the share price might fall.

[the deacon] 31/10/2023 11:34

I'm talking from an individual point of view. I've said about the disconnect between Altius and Ecora many times before. There's some good CEO's/management teams in the royalty and streaming space, and Brian Dalton is very much up there. Besides the chalk and cheese management comparison, Altius has some very long life assets. They also have an extensive development pipeline running alongside a project generation arm. You're right, a shrinking valuation for ECOR might make it a target. But more importantly, it will start to have a detrimental effect on their cost of capital.

[0x3f] 31/10/2023 11:26

>Of course, it means little if you're not selling

Not necessarily. There's a large valuation disconnect between us and Altius, for example. At some price we must become a target for another royalty company, the risk is that someone else benefits from the large potential upside here.

[the deacon] 31/10/2023 11:10

What I find most disappointing is management standing by and doing very little to arrest the slide. I've seen nothing from MBL to suggest he's bothered. Of course, it means little if you're not selling, but nevertheless the disregard from the board says a lot.

[1knocker] 31/10/2023 10:58

Oh dear oh dear. I hoped we were at about the bottom circa 110 !

Now a 60% drop from the price 10 years ago.

The problem appears to me to be likely to lie in the thin earnings outlook over the next few years.

[0x3f] 31/10/2023 10:30

Management need to be more supportive of share price here. Do more long form interviews to get story out, not the pointless 3min ones that get released. They need to buyback stock, or at least mention it is under consideration.

Terrible performance (both management and share price).