Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2024 07:28

#Cocopops, the buyback is only 59% complete, so 41% to come.. :o)

Q1-2024 results tomorrow morning, see how the deferred Kestrel income stacks up for us.. (ref Q1-2023 - USD22.9M)

27.03.2024 - Kestrel saleable volumes from Ecora royalty area in 2024 expected to be 15-25% ahead of the 2023 volumes. Majority of 2024 Kestrel royalty receipts expected in H1..

Kestrel runoff in FY2026

[cocopah] 23/4/2024 07:21

MBL clearly out of his depth and now the buyback is complete we really will see the share price fall. Bad luck tends to follow poor decisions. Dropping like a stone. Shambolic.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/4/2024 16:25

Oz minerals had already started building WM, nobody would forecast BHP making a bid, then the Nickel price softening resulting in the new owners making their own decision on a possible pause on the mine build, due diligence is not going to plan for that variable..

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 16:19

Like due diligence on WM not going ahead as planned. Hard to see that one coming

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 16:14

“To be fair” as you put it … one expects the CEO to have done due diligence and invested at the right price and time … not bet the farm on a generalisation.

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 14:21

To be fair, it was a clearly telegraphed strategy to move in that direction. All holders had time to sell out before the share price decline if they didn't agree with the path management were taking. Captain hindsight has great investment results.

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 13:20

Interesting read albeit from a vested interest … [...] … what a pity our gung-ho CEO chose to bet the house like he did.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2024 16:54

#1Knocker, not much we can do about it really, just have to wait for it to unfold, either way 2024/2025 will be just fine, and our basket of commodity prices are firming up, particularly Copper..

The buyback is just over half way now..

[1knocker] 21/4/2024 14:12

That sounds like a 'mea culpa' if ever I heard one, LLB !!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2024 13:25

#The Deacon - BHP 18.04.2024 - as announced in our HY24 results in February 2024, we continue to review our plans for Western Australia Nickel with a focus on preserving cash. This includes optimising operations and maintenance schedules, reviewing capital plans, reducing contractor spend and equipment hire. Our review also includes assessing the potential to place Nickel West into a period of care and maintenance and the phasing and capital spend for the development of the West Musgrave project.

We expect to provide an update on the longer-term future of Western Australia Nickel by the FY24 results in August 2024.

The Nickel price has firmed up well over March/April and will be the key driver on decisions..

[cocopah] 19/4/2024 15:04

My hopes of the buyback getting to £1 are not going to materialise. I can see this dropping like a stone as soon as the buybacks are finished. Locked into this for at least three years. It beggars belief that their incompetent social media team are now promoting Kestrel just as it is winding down… you couldn’t make it up! Seems like it’s not just the smug CEO who is out of his depth. 🙄 😫

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/4/2024 18:02

A broad red brush day today #1Knocker, 87/88 pence was holding up well, 02.05.2024 for the AGM and the XD date to pick up the next dividend..

The buyback is ongoing, to use (or not), and will be 50% complete tomorrow if they repeat todays purchases (which I am tracking)..

I agree we should have kept Narrabri and the diversification that came with it instead of going all out on the green agenda, we have yet to get paid for it all too..

WM might yet get kicked into the long grass, but we still own the royalty and it will be built sooner or later..

Copper, Nickel, Cobalt prices rebounding well, our Q1 update next week 24th..

[1knocker] 16/4/2024 17:33

I confess that I am not optimistic here. The mining industry has broadly taken the view that the green revolution is overhyped. Copper production is totally inadequate to meet the tonnage requiredto come close to fulfilment of the electrification and renewable poiwer generation promises, yet the price of copper has remained pretty flat and investment in exploration and mine development has been minimal. Much the same can be said for the battery metals, save for cobbalt which is in oversupply and its price on the floor.

The CEO seems to have listenned to the hype rather than keeping his eyes and ears open to the sector consensus. Perhaps we should not be surprised, given the name change to the riddiculous Ecora. that should have sounded warning bellls as well as irritating us.

A royalty company absolutely need a CEO who is a realist, driven by the numbers and not hype and setiment. Ah well, some you win, and some you don't.

Time to use any price spike to selll down the holding.

[giltedge1] 16/4/2024 10:14

Looks like South32 buy a pup, can't see any income soon. Paui Nickel & Capstone strapped for cash. Lucky break BHP bought WM but on hold. Simple DD would have shown all this.

[cocopah] 16/4/2024 06:48

IMHO this will fall like a stone after the buyback finishes. His smugness (aka MBL) is clueless and incapable of securing good deals. The underlying fundamentals are poor for at least 3 years, if not longer. If this hits a £1.00 I’ll be cutting and running. The HZM news doesn’t bode well either.🫣9763;

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 15:56

#Brucie5, has to be said, an excellent turnaround since the dividend cut and buyback was announced from a low of 70 pence, but I do not think this was the sole catalyst, see BRWM for reference..

Although disappointing as an income investor to see the dividend cut in half, it does add USD11M a year to debt reduction/buybacks or new royalty purchases for free..

Next stop 100 pence..? .. :o)

[quepassa] 15/4/2024 15:50

The ONLY thing which has boosted this share recently is the expensive BuyBack Program.

Not fundamentals.

The shares are being held in Treasury and are not being cancelled.

When the BUYBACK program ceases - it is in my view highly likely that the share will drift back down.

The recently reduced dividend and poor dividend outlook dictate a lower price.

A good time to sell as the broker independently handling the Program is clearly prepared to pay up to acquire stock.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 15:21

Well very oddly - or not- this has risen above its 200 WMA in fairly short order since cutting the dividend.
I think the oddity lies mainly in the voices of despair which would have urged us all to sell at at 74p. Which kind of illustrates the danger of over actively engaging in buying and selling of what is really a long term income with growth stock, based on the world's growing need for sustainable metals.
The SMA lies somewhat higher at about 95p. I know that charting and income are separate strategies, but simply seek to highlight that they can sometimes have similar results.

[sword77] 15/4/2024 13:23

Hello fellow Ecor investor colleagues, I just found this forum and I am very pleased to see that I am not the only active investor Ecora investor although the depressed share price might indicate that^^

Thx for the HZM news, supports my assumption that Piaui won't get build in the near future.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 08:37

#Starastar.. 27.03.2024 - the buyback programme will commence today 27 March 2024, and end no later than 27 September 2024, with a max spend of USD10M / GBP7.9M, currently we are about 1/3 the way in on purchases by costs, so it could end a good deal earlier, or be dragged out to keep the market there for us...

BRWM is my benchmark for reference, and an overlay shows exactly the same trend, so it is hard to say the buyback is the only catalyst for the share price recovery, but it has certainly helped support the share..

[starastar] 15/4/2024 08:01

What makes you say that re September, LLB? They are a quarter of the way to £10m already...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 06:29

The HZM update this morning makes for grim reading, they failed to secure funding for their 50% complete Nickel project after a global roadshow and courting 150 parties reduced to 40, they all cited the poor Nickel market outlook and none wanted to take part in a round of funding to finish the project..See how BHP go with their build decision at WM, which directly impacts us..The buyback here is doing a very good at supporting the share price to date, and will run through to end of September..

[1knocker] 03/4/2024 16:54

Cut the dividend massively, promise bread and water only for the next few years, and the share price rises. A CEO's job is clearly a lot easier than I thought.

[the deacon] 03/4/2024 16:28

The price of cobalt has no bearing on whether VB operates or sits idle. Our cobalt stream is a byproduct of Vales nickel sulphide operation.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/4/2024 14:36

VB has taken a year longer than expected to ramp up the new UG mines, our share will double over 2024 into 2025 to c600 tonnes a year and 25-30 deliveries..The S32 deal was expensive, but fine as OZ minerals soon after committed to building WM, BHP taking over was a surprise to everyone, but now we just have to run with the results..Kestrel will run on for 24/25 and some in 26 so we have plenty of time to explore value royalties now commodity prices have cooled off some, fortunately we are loaded up with Copper already which is performing very well indeed, USD4.20/lb today.. :o)