Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/4/2024 19:02

A broad red brush day today #1Knocker, 87/88 pence was holding up well, 02.05.2024 for the AGM and the XD date to pick up the next dividend..

The buyback is ongoing, to use (or not), and will be 50% complete tomorrow if they repeat todays purchases (which I am tracking)..

I agree we should have kept Narrabri and the diversification that came with it instead of going all out on the green agenda, we have yet to get paid for it all too..

WM might yet get kicked into the long grass, but we still own the royalty and it will be built sooner or later..

Copper, Nickel, Cobalt prices rebounding well, our Q1 update next week 24th..

[1knocker] 16/4/2024 18:33

I confess that I am not optimistic here. The mining industry has broadly taken the view that the green revolution is overhyped. Copper production is totally inadequate to meet the tonnage requiredto come close to fulfilment of the electrification and renewable poiwer generation promises, yet the price of copper has remained pretty flat and investment in exploration and mine development has been minimal. Much the same can be said for the battery metals, save for cobbalt which is in oversupply and its price on the floor.

The CEO seems to have listenned to the hype rather than keeping his eyes and ears open to the sector consensus. Perhaps we should not be surprised, given the name change to the riddiculous Ecora. that should have sounded warning bellls as well as irritating us.

A royalty company absolutely need a CEO who is a realist, driven by the numbers and not hype and setiment. Ah well, some you win, and some you don't.

Time to use any price spike to selll down the holding.

[giltedge1] 16/4/2024 11:14

Looks like South32 buy a pup, can't see any income soon. Paui Nickel & Capstone strapped for cash. Lucky break BHP bought WM but on hold. Simple DD would have shown all this.

[cocopah] 16/4/2024 07:48

IMHO this will fall like a stone after the buyback finishes. His smugness (aka MBL) is clueless and incapable of securing good deals. The underlying fundamentals are poor for at least 3 years, if not longer. If this hits a £1.00 I’ll be cutting and running. The HZM news doesn’t bode well either.🫣9763;

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 16:56

#Brucie5, has to be said, an excellent turnaround since the dividend cut and buyback was announced from a low of 70 pence, but I do not think this was the sole catalyst, see BRWM for reference..

Although disappointing as an income investor to see the dividend cut in half, it does add USD11M a year to debt reduction/buybacks or new royalty purchases for free..

Next stop 100 pence..? .. :o)

[quepassa] 15/4/2024 16:50

The ONLY thing which has boosted this share recently is the expensive BuyBack Program.

Not fundamentals.

The shares are being held in Treasury and are not being cancelled.

When the BUYBACK program ceases - it is in my view highly likely that the share will drift back down.

The recently reduced dividend and poor dividend outlook dictate a lower price.

A good time to sell as the broker independently handling the Program is clearly prepared to pay up to acquire stock.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 16:21

Well very oddly - or not- this has risen above its 200 WMA in fairly short order since cutting the dividend.
I think the oddity lies mainly in the voices of despair which would have urged us all to sell at at 74p. Which kind of illustrates the danger of over actively engaging in buying and selling of what is really a long term income with growth stock, based on the world's growing need for sustainable metals.
The SMA lies somewhat higher at about 95p. I know that charting and income are separate strategies, but simply seek to highlight that they can sometimes have similar results.

[sword77] 15/4/2024 14:23

Hello fellow Ecor investor colleagues, I just found this forum and I am very pleased to see that I am not the only active investor Ecora investor although the depressed share price might indicate that^^

Thx for the HZM news, supports my assumption that Piaui won't get build in the near future.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 09:37

#Starastar.. 27.03.2024 - the buyback programme will commence today 27 March 2024, and end no later than 27 September 2024, with a max spend of USD10M / GBP7.9M, currently we are about 1/3 the way in on purchases by costs, so it could end a good deal earlier, or be dragged out to keep the market there for us...

BRWM is my benchmark for reference, and an overlay shows exactly the same trend, so it is hard to say the buyback is the only catalyst for the share price recovery, but it has certainly helped support the share..

[starastar] 15/4/2024 09:01

What makes you say that re September, LLB? They are a quarter of the way to £10m already...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 07:29

The HZM update this morning makes for grim reading, they failed to secure funding for their 50% complete Nickel project after a global roadshow and courting 150 parties reduced to 40, they all cited the poor Nickel market outlook and none wanted to take part in a round of funding to finish the project..See how BHP go with their build decision at WM, which directly impacts us..The buyback here is doing a very good at supporting the share price to date, and will run through to end of September..

[1knocker] 03/4/2024 17:54

Cut the dividend massively, promise bread and water only for the next few years, and the share price rises. A CEO's job is clearly a lot easier than I thought.

[the deacon] 03/4/2024 17:28

The price of cobalt has no bearing on whether VB operates or sits idle. Our cobalt stream is a byproduct of Vales nickel sulphide operation.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/4/2024 15:36

VB has taken a year longer than expected to ramp up the new UG mines, our share will double over 2024 into 2025 to c600 tonnes a year and 25-30 deliveries..The S32 deal was expensive, but fine as OZ minerals soon after committed to building WM, BHP taking over was a surprise to everyone, but now we just have to run with the results..Kestrel will run on for 24/25 and some in 26 so we have plenty of time to explore value royalties now commodity prices have cooled off some, fortunately we are loaded up with Copper already which is performing very well indeed, USD4.20/lb today.. :o)

[swanvesta] 03/4/2024 15:08

Voisey's Bay was $205m

[riskvsreward] 03/4/2024 14:14

S32 deal was the one that has done the biggest damage. Far too big at $185 m relative to the size of the company, badly timed and overpriced without enough return and margin of safety. Since then the share prices has been on downfall, although the general commodity market has not helped but that is part of the mis-timed acquisition.

[swanvesta] 03/4/2024 12:43

While everyone is moaning about MBL... As far as I'm concerned the rot began with Voisey's Bay, which seemed to me too reliant on high Cobalt prices and ZIRP forever. That was under the watch of Julian Treger.

[tommygriff] 29/3/2024 15:53

Does Julian still hold shares?

[bagpuss67] 29/3/2024 13:57

Just seems to be such a common theme amongst small listed companies. Some shocking cases of mismanagement. Unfortunately I seem to have a fair few of them in my portfolio.. Take a look at DG19. Unbelievable.

[santos123] 29/3/2024 12:24

Hi QP.

I do not normally read the drivel you write.

But in 758 I have to agree with your summery.
The dividend needs to rise, because of the lack of cash, and the royalties in the future that may or may not pay out.

The only way that can happen is a share price fall.

I do not have a crystal ball, so have no idea what will happen tomorrow, never mind far out into the future.
Buying so many royalties that are not producing income now, or in the near future was a huge mistake.

There were also other mistakes that have been talked about already, the B.O.D. have ruined this once great company.

Santos123

[quepassa] 28/3/2024 17:44

Maths.

Share price 75p
Dividend 3p

Yield 4%

By comparison, Interest rate on a high-street/internet savings account 4.5%.


If this is a pure dividend/ yield play paying 4% , the yield is now poor compared to a risk-free FSCS backed savings account.

The risk premium for holding this share should dictate a significantly higher yield than 4% in my opinion.

Perhaps a yield of 6-7% would be a more suitable risk/reward return.

And a 6-7% yield (on the basis of a 3p dividend) drives a share price of some 45p to 50p.



all imo. dyor.
qp

[cocopah] 28/3/2024 15:17

His smugness (MBL) is about as good at capital allocation as Southgate is at understanding free-flowing attacking football!

He should’ve apologised for the destruction of shareholder value and being late to the party with near-term accretive income. At one stage he said that those kind of deals were not available … and then later he said that they were just the kind of deals that they were now looking for - clueless.

Basically, he is asking investors who are at least 40% or more down on their investment to suck it up for about 4 years plus, (with a 3p per share per year dividend) whilst income remains depressed.

The only person who might gain from the share buyback is himself who bought shares at 76p and then panicked into a buyback when the share price dipped to 70p … not what I call an ethical move!

The share price might’ve improved marginally over the last day or two (and this may continue as the buyback takes place) but there is no hiding from the fact that near term income and by that I mean over the next 3 years looks awful … and as a result I fail to see what would be the impetus for any kind of sustained share price rally.

What a mess!😡

[1knocker] 28/3/2024 10:05

The CEO does come across as conceited and self satisfied, notwithstanding having nothing to be satisfied about. I hope it is just for the cameras!

It would be reassuring to see him at least go through the motions of disappointment with the share price performance and regret over the dividend cut.

It may just me, but the '4 pillars' stuff irritates me too. In the context in which it was used it sounded straight out of the buzz phrases handbook (Noddy edition). If it had been rolled out as an explanation of a royalty diversification policy, or a split between immediate payers and development projects, it might have meant something.

Anyhow, for reasons which pass me by, the share price has had a better couple of days than it has for months. So i guess someone in the market must regard the results and announcements, and the cheery grin of the CEO more highly than I do!