Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[the deacon] 26/7/2024 09:48

Nice looking tungsten deal executed by Elemental Altus in recent days. $4.5m for a royalty over the Mactung tungsten project in Canada being developed by the Lundin Group. Advanced stage, environmentally permitted asset that should pay ELE circa £3m per annum for many decades once in production. Mactung expected to benefit from US government critical mineral grants too. Seller in this instance was Cornish Metals. Would have been a good asset for ECOR...

[the deacon] 24/7/2024 10:52

A small plus for Ecora is the new CEO for Vale's base metals operations. They've just appointed Shaun Usmar to the position, who is leaving his post as CEO of TFPM. Bittersweet for me, as TFPM has been a long term hold and has done well for me. A very good appointment for Vale, and I've no doubt he'll get things in shape.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/7/2024 10:40

#The Deacon, I am not so downbeat on Cobalt, the primary use is in steel making, with batteries secondary, so either way we will always have a market, H2 Kestrel income will be negligible, but overall a good H1 for us..

Our project portfolio takes years to come into play but SD is a big 1 for us to get moving forward to income in the absence of WM now..

[the deacon] 24/7/2024 10:27

Reads well, but taken in conjunction with the previous kestrel update and things don't look great. Although I expect cobalt to perform adequately, we're not going to see the energy transition rush for the metal, as western developers follow their Asian counterparts into LFP battery dominance. Really need to see the pipeline start to get a shift on, but nickel weakness isn't going away anytime soon as the Indonesians continue to flood the market. Capstone releasing the PFS for Santo Domingo is key, however that has always been expected to be a high cost option for them.On today's numbers the company looks cheap. However if things continue to fall away for Ecora that won't be the case.. And that starts in H2 this year if Kestrel contribution is negligible

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/7/2024 08:08

Nice update for Q2... :o)

VB guidance is now way above where I was expecting, 40 deliveries means our share is 800 tonnes of Cobalt, my prior expectations were just 600 tonnes..

USD20M revenues coming up less cost of sales in 2026 even at todays prices..

[cocopah] 12/7/2024 16:23

The CEO is so smug when he addresses shareholders, he reminds me of those people at work who are completely out of depth and just blunder on regardless. We have wasted the opportunity presented by the Kestrel income and are now in dire straits for several years. I reached out to him on LinkedIn and suggested that he apologises to shareholders and has a good long hard look at the company strategy because it ain’t working.

Unfortunately, he isn’t alone in his stupidity.🫣🙄

[quepassa] 12/7/2024 08:41

tut, tut, tut LLB.

if you were expecting, planning, forecasting, projecting income of X in years 2024, 2025, 2026 etc. but will now be receiving X minus Y, you have most certainly lost something.

You have lost forecast royalty income in those years which would have gone to service debt and to pay dividends.

So without that forecast income, you have lost part of your expected income in those years. That stresses the maths behind those investments and in turn stresses the balance-sheet and income statements.

That's not good. That's not going to help pay the much-vaunted royalty-based shareholder dividends.

On top of that, who can - for example- say for sure what BHP will do in three years time.

And finally, under your thesis, where you say you have "deferred" income, you can hardly defer paying interest on the financing/borrowing backing that investment.

Let's hope that doesn't also mean "deferring" shareholder dividends which would have derived from the projected income on those investments in those years.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 12/7/2024 08:15

We have not lost anything, just deferred the income, with share price weakness comes opportunity for the longer term and the patient.. :o)

[the deacon] 12/7/2024 07:53

Franco got knocked down on the Cobre Panama news QP. You know that. It's recovered, but still well off its previous high. Wheaton has performed very well over recent months.

[quepassa] 12/7/2024 06:29

There is ZERO evidence of any M&A interest in Ecora.

Good try guys! - but no-one would likely be interested in this Heinz-57 assortment of investments.


Meanwhile the uranium markets have started moving again after an early summer lull as Biden has just signed the Advance Act to promote US nuclear industries and Kazakh has hiked tax on uranium exports.

Astonishing how little Ecora has in uranium.

Elsewhere and to put things into perspective, peer-group streamer Franco-Nevada by comparison UP 30% since March from C$1.40 to C$1.75 compared to Ecora's losing share price.


The big problem in my view with Ecora is their portfolio. It's over-diversified and nebulous. They need to re-invent themselves again as the latest strategy is not bringing home the bacon.

They once made a lot of money by placing a big bet at the right time on coal.

Now they've spread their chips all over the roulette table under the guise of green metals/commodities and they are losing lots of their bets.

This company needs to double-down on a smaller spread of investments and focus on that hard.

Until something changes, this share will continue its downwards trajectory in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[pockstones] 11/7/2024 23:36

Hmm the wisdom of paying 84p to buy back shares only a couple of weeks ago looks increasingly shaky.
The bone headed arrogant stupidity of the current CEO continues to amaze
Institutional investors backed the strategy which 8 guess explains the silence but what a bunch of muppets

[the deacon] 11/7/2024 21:35

The obvious buyer would be Altius, but tbh I'm not sure they'd be interested in an optionality portfolio right now. Deterra a possibility as you say. MBL has really let this valuation fall a long way on his watch. Maybe a tie up with another royalty co of similar size makes sense. Elemental Altus could be a good fit, though as a shareholder there I'd really like the ELE team to jettison MBL and co at an early opportunity if it were to happen.

[sword77] 11/7/2024 20:29

And I am pretty sure Money of Mine will talk tomorrow about the WM suspension, so tune in:

[sword77] 11/7/2024 20:29

@1knocker: Which assets, do you think, make ECOR an takeover target?
And for whom?

The only one I could think of would be Deterra, but they are buying now Trident, don't think they buy another company right away.

[bagpuss67] 11/7/2024 17:54

Just trying to think where I got this from. I think it was Simon T at IC. Been terrible.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/7/2024 17:31

Stinker of a day, the BHP/WM decision has weighed heavy for us, but an over shoot IMO, we are still holding a strong PF of royalties and income generators which will continue to deliver, VB is just ramping up now from 24/25..

[1knocker] 11/7/2024 16:30

This really has become a stinker. Lowest price since 2015. Even on a BB it is difficult to see how anyone can claim to be in the blue. Most will be lucky if they are down less than 50%, though on a total return basis it is not quite so bad. Unfortunately, though the dividend is flattered by the falling price, the return on capital invested by existing shareholders is not.

Frankly, if ECOR is not a takeover target at this price the potential purchasers must take a very jaundiced view of its assets.

Very depressing. Wish I had a better idea of what a fair value might be. Not so long ago I thought it might be about 100p, and a year or so back I thought it a buy under about 140. There were even those who hoped for 200p, though that always seemed a stretch to me. It has been a precipitate fall since the change of CEO, though from the company announcements it appears that the BoD thinks they are doing just fine. .

[quepassa] 11/7/2024 15:11

tut, tut, tut LLB,

zero stake-building....



you always sing the same old song.

meanwhile the share price sings a very different song.

[tommygriff] 11/7/2024 15:08

Julian jumped at the right time didn't he

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/7/2024 14:53

We are still generating USD28M ex Kestrel, we earned USD41M from Kestrel in H1-2024 plus the extra deliveries tbc from VB going forward, not that bad here for 2024/25/26, but the income outlook from there out is less clear, annual dividend payouts are now just USD11M a year now so the payout is well covered, we are still moving going forward, but disappointing news this morning from BHP.

Could be time to average down soon and keep for the longer term IMO too, maybe we become a takeover target at these prices too..?

[reddirish] 11/7/2024 14:39

What I didn't mention is that I sold out my previous holdings in what was APC at a weighted average of £1.54 between March and July of 2022, so I don't feel quite as aggreived with the situation as I would have done had I held. Back then it was an income holding, and I sold out when it no longer fitted that category. It's now in my SIPP portfolio as a growth holding, hence my relaxed view of the current malaise - and of being 4% down already!

[farrugia] 11/7/2024 13:12

they tried to mention Kestrel outperformance to soften the blow...? But I believe Kestrel is coming to an end soon?

I agree this could go down more. They've paid US$8.5 million for a royalty in Rainbow Rare Earths that is still very early on - how many years will this take for this to start generating something (?) - if it even managed to get the project into operation... These guys don't seem to think much about spending shareholders funds.

[quepassa] 11/7/2024 12:45

Oh dear...

That's really unwanted, undesired and undermining news.

As long predicted by me, the share price is now likely soon to sink into the 50p levels in my opinion .

The forecast/outlook for nickel in the full BHP release makes sobering reading.


all imo. dyor.
qp