Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 25/4/2024 06:54

What is astonishing about the Share BuyBack is the speed with which it is being executed.

The broker has irrevocable authority to buy £7.9m/$10m of shares over a six month period from 27/3/24 to 27/9.

According to my calculations, the broker has already bought 5.87 million shares in less than a month. Using a guesstimate average of 80p per share, that's around £4.7 million already spent - or approaching 60%.

The broker started buying shares on 27/3 at an average of 74.17p.
On 16th. April, the broker paid 87.4p.

Yesterday, the broker paid 79.95p.



Despite the on-going heavy buying by the broker, this has not been able to continue to support the price and the share has fallen over the last ten days or so, from a peak of 87.4p to 79.95p yesterday

Clearly, there are a lot of willing sellers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andymunchkin] 24/4/2024 20:04

bountyhunter6 Oct '22 - 08:18 - 4 of 798
0 2 0
Morning, 'Ecora' is a long term hold for me, the transition from coal to commodities required to support a sustainable future being a welcome one.
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bountyhunter6 Oct '22 - 08:24 - 5 of 798
0 1 0
I've added a 5 year APF chart so we don't lose track of the history.
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isTis pUmp being dUmpD @ boUnts??

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 20:01

Worth remembering WM is a dual royalty, with a 2.0% net smelter return on the West Musgrave copper and nickel project in Australia, average annual production is expected to be 26,000 tonnes of Ni and 32,000 tonnes of Cu..

Clearly the stronger Copper prices get the more weight there is on the finish build decision by BHP in August..

[riskvsreward] 24/4/2024 19:57

Looks like the new CEO has spent a lot of money and not getting much in return. The only return is from an old asset on rundown.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 18:18

#Cocopops, your glass in half empty again..:o)

FY2023 - the VB stream produced four deliveries in Q4 taking the number of deliveries for 2023 to 11..

FY2024 - guidance remains unchanged at 12-16 deliveries of cobalt subject to scheduled ramp of underground activity in H2..

Net debt up from 75M (Q4) to 87M (Q1), in January 2024 the Group made the final 9.2M deferred consideration payment to South32, most likely why but we will have another +20M income over Q2 to reduce the debt..

[cocopah] 24/4/2024 16:56

Without Kestrel, income is dire! 2 deliveries from VB in the quarter, bet we’ll struggle to get 10 this year, no matter the plan. £87m in debt (the buyback is money down the drain), no near-term accretive deals, divi slashed and overpaid for S32 … on top of it all smugmeister MBL sits in front of investors with zero humility. Shambolic.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/4/2024 08:38

FY2023 1.6MT
Kestrel Q1-2024 660KT sales.
FY2024 1.9MT (est)
Kestrel Q2-2024 est about the same.
Kestrel H2-2024 balance of 1.9 MT sales.

VB - Q1 2024 - 2 deliveries
VB - Q2 2024 - 3 deliveries (est)
VB - Q3 2024 - 4 deliveries (est)
VB - Q4 2024 - 5 deliveries (est)

[quepassa] 24/4/2024 08:10

CORE PORTFOLIO:-

DOWN 9% QoQ.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 23/4/2024 08:28

#Cocopops, the buyback is only 59% complete, so 41% to come.. :o)

Q1-2024 results tomorrow morning, see how the deferred Kestrel income stacks up for us.. (ref Q1-2023 - USD22.9M)

27.03.2024 - Kestrel saleable volumes from Ecora royalty area in 2024 expected to be 15-25% ahead of the 2023 volumes. Majority of 2024 Kestrel royalty receipts expected in H1..

Kestrel runoff in FY2026

[cocopah] 23/4/2024 08:21

MBL clearly out of his depth and now the buyback is complete we really will see the share price fall. Bad luck tends to follow poor decisions. Dropping like a stone. Shambolic.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/4/2024 17:25

Oz minerals had already started building WM, nobody would forecast BHP making a bid, then the Nickel price softening resulting in the new owners making their own decision on a possible pause on the mine build, due diligence is not going to plan for that variable..

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 17:19

Like due diligence on WM not going ahead as planned. Hard to see that one coming

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 17:14

“To be fair” as you put it … one expects the CEO to have done due diligence and invested at the right price and time … not bet the farm on a generalisation.

[dartboard1] 22/4/2024 15:21

To be fair, it was a clearly telegraphed strategy to move in that direction. All holders had time to sell out before the share price decline if they didn't agree with the path management were taking. Captain hindsight has great investment results.

[cocopah] 22/4/2024 14:20

Interesting read albeit from a vested interest … [...] … what a pity our gung-ho CEO chose to bet the house like he did.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2024 17:54

#1Knocker, not much we can do about it really, just have to wait for it to unfold, either way 2024/2025 will be just fine, and our basket of commodity prices are firming up, particularly Copper..

The buyback is just over half way now..

[1knocker] 21/4/2024 15:12

That sounds like a 'mea culpa' if ever I heard one, LLB !!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/4/2024 14:25

#The Deacon - BHP 18.04.2024 - as announced in our HY24 results in February 2024, we continue to review our plans for Western Australia Nickel with a focus on preserving cash. This includes optimising operations and maintenance schedules, reviewing capital plans, reducing contractor spend and equipment hire. Our review also includes assessing the potential to place Nickel West into a period of care and maintenance and the phasing and capital spend for the development of the West Musgrave project.

We expect to provide an update on the longer-term future of Western Australia Nickel by the FY24 results in August 2024.

The Nickel price has firmed up well over March/April and will be the key driver on decisions..

[cocopah] 19/4/2024 16:04

My hopes of the buyback getting to £1 are not going to materialise. I can see this dropping like a stone as soon as the buybacks are finished. Locked into this for at least three years. It beggars belief that their incompetent social media team are now promoting Kestrel just as it is winding down… you couldn’t make it up! Seems like it’s not just the smug CEO who is out of his depth. 🙄 😫

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/4/2024 19:02

A broad red brush day today #1Knocker, 87/88 pence was holding up well, 02.05.2024 for the AGM and the XD date to pick up the next dividend..

The buyback is ongoing, to use (or not), and will be 50% complete tomorrow if they repeat todays purchases (which I am tracking)..

I agree we should have kept Narrabri and the diversification that came with it instead of going all out on the green agenda, we have yet to get paid for it all too..

WM might yet get kicked into the long grass, but we still own the royalty and it will be built sooner or later..

Copper, Nickel, Cobalt prices rebounding well, our Q1 update next week 24th..

[1knocker] 16/4/2024 18:33

I confess that I am not optimistic here. The mining industry has broadly taken the view that the green revolution is overhyped. Copper production is totally inadequate to meet the tonnage requiredto come close to fulfilment of the electrification and renewable poiwer generation promises, yet the price of copper has remained pretty flat and investment in exploration and mine development has been minimal. Much the same can be said for the battery metals, save for cobbalt which is in oversupply and its price on the floor.

The CEO seems to have listenned to the hype rather than keeping his eyes and ears open to the sector consensus. Perhaps we should not be surprised, given the name change to the riddiculous Ecora. that should have sounded warning bellls as well as irritating us.

A royalty company absolutely need a CEO who is a realist, driven by the numbers and not hype and setiment. Ah well, some you win, and some you don't.

Time to use any price spike to selll down the holding.

[giltedge1] 16/4/2024 11:14

Looks like South32 buy a pup, can't see any income soon. Paui Nickel & Capstone strapped for cash. Lucky break BHP bought WM but on hold. Simple DD would have shown all this.

[cocopah] 16/4/2024 07:48

IMHO this will fall like a stone after the buyback finishes. His smugness (aka MBL) is clueless and incapable of securing good deals. The underlying fundamentals are poor for at least 3 years, if not longer. If this hits a £1.00 I’ll be cutting and running. The HZM news doesn’t bode well either.🫣9763;

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/4/2024 16:56

#Brucie5, has to be said, an excellent turnaround since the dividend cut and buyback was announced from a low of 70 pence, but I do not think this was the sole catalyst, see BRWM for reference..

Although disappointing as an income investor to see the dividend cut in half, it does add USD11M a year to debt reduction/buybacks or new royalty purchases for free..

Next stop 100 pence..? .. :o)