Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 23/8/2016 11:44

I do like to see a share rising the day before results ; a few little leaks of better than expected?
Mind you , the share price here has confounded me so many times before that I shall lower my expectations....

[thorpematt] 23/8/2016 10:43

Today's continuation of rise is encouraging. CLLN and others like it often rise in advance of a positive statement.


As discussed already, those short positions are significant (19% as of yesterday's close). I can only see one fund exiting its short position recently (Och - ziff).

It's important to remember that the hedge funds trade portions of their positions to glean trading gains and also that they use various methods (pair trades etc.) to balance positions and (hopefully) to provide a net return. Many of these shorts have been held for some time and in part this is in the knowedge that CLLN will trade within a range and that it is very liquid that enables the hedge funds to profit (most of the time).

CLLN has always been a complicated stock to understand financially and that often creates conflicting views on balance sheet strength, bankrupcy risk etc.

All of that said a break above 300p may very well see a squeeze and with such a lot of stock on loan there is certainly some scope for some drama.

[edmundshaw] 23/8/2016 09:20

Ex dividend on 1st September too, another cost for the shorts.

[edmundshaw] 23/8/2016 09:19

With HY results tomorrow, perhaps some short covering is already happening?

[wad collector] 23/8/2016 08:40

Carillion remains quiet about announcing its contract wins . I notice another big one went by without an RNS. Ultimately the announcements have little effect in the long term , but it would help the company profile when negotiating other contracts if they keep announcing that they are winning contracts all over the world.

hxxp://www.constructionweekonline.com/article-40279-al-futtaim-carillion-negotiating-1bn-reem-mall/

[apad] 23/8/2016 08:02

Agreed RCT, but there have been August increases in short positions and there were no large exits at the beginning of July.
apad

[rcturner2] 23/8/2016 07:50

lab, shorters are not correct all the time, but if you look at the chart over the time period of when the short position started to build, I would suggest that most are in profit and any that have closed made a profit.

[zcaprd7] 22/8/2016 22:52

I think you're right, I nearly sold for a small gain today, but I think a rerating is overdue, and the dividend is juicy whilst I wait...

[lab305] 22/8/2016 22:48

I have long argued on here that the large short position taken by hedge funds in Carillion has no justification . As time goes by it becomes more and more apparent that this is so. To anyone left who seriously disputes this are they really saying that eighteen months ago, and more, the hedge funds knew something negative about this company that has yet to materialise ? I think not. A strong well run company paying a fantastic dividend . The fundamentals are good and the share price still ridiculously cheap despite the recent rise. Hopefully on Wednesday the results will convert a few more sceptics and who knows even some hedge funds.

[zcaprd7] 22/8/2016 12:01

They seem to have been progressing the business for a while now, so not sure where the bad news is? The debt and/or covenants? Surely in the current interest rate environment, these aren't an issue?

[bend1pa] 13/8/2016 14:56

The stock's had a nice climb since the Brexit vote, but I don't think the shorters will leave this stock alone anytime soon. Most must be losing money now since Brexit and having to stump up premiums, but that doesn't seem to deter them. Looking for a ceiling of 300p. Twice it's failed to hold that level within the past 6 months. The last time it did breach 300 reluctantly (317) was late Dec, and that only lasted for a week before it crashed down again to 250.

[wad collector] 10/8/2016 16:00

I do like the look of this steady rise , not sure the IRV results are the cause , but good for the sector . What the share price needs now is a panic amongst the shorters , but they have been pretty cool about rises in the past.

[edmundshaw] 10/8/2016 08:57

Well Interserve business seems to be chugging along nicely. Price up 10% though is partly on the basis of no dividend cut and no worsening of the bad contract provision (even though that was as indicated by the board). No change here though... yet...

[zcaprd7] 09/8/2016 17:50

A bit of good news would send the shorters scurrying though...

[edmundshaw] 09/8/2016 14:14

IRV interims tomorrow, so we might get some read-across...

[m4rtinu] 09/8/2016 10:44

Just about dragging itself back to pre-Brexit levels. 280p would be good; 300p even better.

[rcturner2] 09/8/2016 10:00

There isn't a lot of point trying to understand short term price movements as they are mostly random.

It's clear there is support around 250p, but also that there are forces keeping the share below 300p. I think we will stay in this zone until there is wider news one way or the other.

[wad collector] 09/8/2016 09:57

Looks like it is still creeping upwards to me , though I keep thinking that only to watch another plunge. There is a slow downwards trend in the short positions too , but still 18.3% according to shorttracker ( Which ignores the cumulative smaller positions so underestimates I believe)

[zcaprd7] 08/8/2016 15:06

Well, that ran out of steam...

[zcaprd7] 01/8/2016 19:00

It looks like we are out of the brutal downtrend visible on the 3 year chart?

[edmundshaw] 27/7/2016 17:53

Two results today of relevance to us included these texts:

VP:
"I am pleased to report that the Group has experienced a positive start to the financial year.
In the UK, the key markets are generally performing well, with construction and housebuilding in particular generating good demand.
[...]
The business performance year to date is encouraging and we have not seen any impact to trading post the recent Brexit decision.

We anticipate making further good progress this year."

Taylor Wimpey:
"Whilst it is still too early to assess what long term impact the EU Referendum result will have on the UK housing market, there has been no meaningful change to date, with trading in the last month at a normal seasonal range with a net private sales rate of 0.65. The net private sales rate for the year to date (w/e 24 July 2016) is 0.77 (2015 equivalent period: 0.78).

Since 24 June, the early forward confidence indicators amongst homebuyers, together with the continued competitive lending by mortgage providers, have been encouraging and support confidence in the resilience of the UK housing market.
[...]
Customer interest remains high, with website visits solid and customers continuing to register interest in forthcoming developments and to make appointments to progress their home purchases. Whilst we saw a small increase in the average cancellation rate immediately following the Referendum, this remained low compared to long term historic norms and is now back in line with recent low levels. "

[haywards26] 27/7/2016 13:25

A nice rise today, it appears to be across the sector.