Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 21/6/2016 15:26

red, how do you know this?

[m4rtinu] 21/6/2016 09:01

Thanks. MU

[redartbmud] 20/6/2016 11:01

RCT

APAD is correct. The main shorters are US hedge funds. They do not hold any of the bonds.

red

[apad] 20/6/2016 09:55

RCT in addition to the bond issue there are a slew of US players shorting.
apad

[m4rtinu] 20/6/2016 09:19

On shorting, will the duration of these "bets" be linked to the timescale of the CLNs which were issued a couple of years ago? Don't know, but hope someone else might.

[m4rtinu] 20/6/2016 09:16

On pension fund deficits (in general):



Extracts:

"The deficit at BAE for example is around £5.4bn, more than a third of its market cap, while BT’s £10bn deficit is about a quarter of its value."

And,

"According to the Pension Protection Fund, the 5,945 large schemes it oversees had a combined deficit of £294.6bn at the end of May, £24.4bn higher than a month earlier. Of those, an incredible 4,864 are in deficit, more than 80pc.

Perhaps more worryingly, despite strong signs that the crisis is worsening, Britain’s big companies are still paying out billions in dividends to shareholders, money that could easily have helped to plug the gap."

[rcturner2] 20/6/2016 09:09

APAD, I think there is some technical shorting relating to a bond issue, this has been discussed previously.

[apad] 19/6/2016 19:04

Trading statement due in a couple of weeks might clarify.
A brexit is likely to make their shoes fit comfortably, red.
apad

[redartbmud] 19/6/2016 17:08

Maybe, but Clln appears able to deliver fairly constant margins and the order book gives forward visibility.
The pension fund deficit is a cause for concern given the potential downside for the UK market.

blomers
I wonder how long it would take for the shorters to fully unwind their positions. We are probably looking at several months before they can reduce to nil. Not sure that I would want to be in their shoes.

[apad] 19/6/2016 13:55

The assumption by the shorters has to be that there will be a need to raise capital or cut the divi - probably the latter.
Given the reduction of free cash flow over the years and the size of the pension fund this is not an unreasonable bet.
apad

[salpara111] 19/6/2016 12:52

It does seem rather cheap even by sector standards.
I would have thought that a yield of around 5% would be more appropriate which should allow for a decent share price uplift.

[blomers] 19/6/2016 12:03

I've been checking the percentage of the stock each week on short tracker, and it creeps up about 0.1% each week, currently standing at 20.3%. I agree with AdamB, the fundamentals look strong, and if it's concerted shorting keeping the price down, it can't go on forever. When the shorters bail it could get very interesting - at least I hope it will!

[redartbmud] 18/6/2016 21:41

eeza

Correct, but I know for a fact that they are shorting on a regular basis.

[adamb1978] 18/6/2016 21:18

These look astonishingly good value at current levels:

- PE of 7.6x for FY16
- 7.1% yield
- div cover approaching 2x
- business performance turning the corner (see most recent results announcements)

The dividend is completely safe and multiple can hardly go down from here so buy it and back your 7% p.a. I'd expect this to re-rate such that the yield goes down to 4% - 5% and suddenly you're sitting on a nice capital gain

[eeza] 18/6/2016 07:38

Reducing a holding is different to shorting (which involves selling stock that you are not the beneficial owner of).

[eeza] 17/6/2016 07:22

Blackrock reducing - to zero ???

[redartbmud] 16/6/2016 22:48

Hmmm.... Really unloved at present.

[bend1pa] 16/6/2016 16:53

Does deem the shorters are back in force sgain. I'll wait until sub 240 before buying more.

[gswredland] 15/6/2016 16:49

Seems to have bounced back from just under 250 three times in the last 5 years. Let's see....

[m4rtinu] 23/5/2016 18:49

Red

Thanks. Sounds like a good strategy.

[redartbmud] 23/5/2016 16:44

m4

I have a long term holding in Clln. It is not a growth stock, but it is a steady performer with a reasonable risk profile. I regularly buy and sell a few.

red

[m4rtinu] 23/5/2016 16:34

Not a bad day today, share price wise. FTSE 250 up 0.6%; CLLN up 1.7%.

Seems possible that if you were a day-trader who could deal in large volumes there is quite a bit on money to be made here.

Any thoughts?

[garycook] 20/5/2016 12:51

Why down today,when the market is up ?

[rcturner2] 18/5/2016 07:39

I've seen a lot worse charts than this.

It seems to be holding quite well to be honest.