Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 22/9/2016 09:37

Thanks Red ; the mystery remains.

[rcturner2] 22/9/2016 07:07

Interesting find. Max coupon on the bond is 2.5%, this must lower their costs going forward.

[redartbmud] 21/9/2016 15:16

wad

I have asked the company. The hedgies number 14 US based funds. They have no interest in the Convertibles.

red

[rcturner2] 21/9/2016 13:32

LG, you may well be right, but I would imagine that the shorters know more about the pension fund deficit than we do.

[haywards26] 21/9/2016 13:06

Interest rate rises could be many years away....further cuts still to come many are predicting...

[lord gnome] 21/9/2016 11:50

A lot of the actuarial pension deficits will reduce dramatically once interest rates start to rise. We are in a very unusual position at present. It is artificial.

[rcturner2] 21/9/2016 10:20

wad, there was a table in the IC last week that showed that Carillion has one of the worst pension deficits out there, when you take into account the size of the company and the debt owed by the company.

[wad collector] 21/9/2016 09:03

It is an enigma ; there are other companies with much bigger pension deficits that are not shorted nearly as much. And why did the positions stay open even when the price plunged?
The convertible hedging theory would support those observations but also seems surprising.
In summary , we don't know.

[rcturner2] 21/9/2016 07:27

I don't think it is as simple as that. No way would that explain the size of the short position.

I think it is most likely to do with the pension deficit.

[lord gnome] 20/9/2016 23:07

Haywards26 you have it in one. This was all debated a long time ago on this thread.

[haywards26] 20/9/2016 20:46

The shorting could also be linked to the US convertible debt that is to convert to equity at a future point in time.

[spoole5] 20/9/2016 20:31

I think it's around speculation the company doesn't have sufficient funding to take on large contracts, something they disprove time and time again.

[salpara111] 20/9/2016 19:58

has anyone read any decent explanations for why there are such large short positions here?

[tini5] 20/9/2016 17:43

Ditto. Like the co, wary of the shorters.

[zcaprd7] 20/9/2016 17:11

Glad I bailed when I did. I'll sniff around at the lows. Such a depressing share!

[haywards26] 20/9/2016 13:40

I have just topped up again. 255 seems to be too good an opportunity to refuse. When taking into account the divi yield, recent trading updates and expected government autumn infrastructure budget update.

[salpara111] 20/9/2016 13:15

I have never owned this but have been tempted on many occasions but I just cant get around the massive short positions that have been built up and never unwound which suggests to me that a lot of people are expecting something pretty unpleasant to happen.
There is a pretty decent divi and it would appear to be pretty safe so that should provide support to the share price
I guess if it retests that 220 level again I will take a stake but cant see why it should be that weak.

[bigbertie] 20/9/2016 11:26

Mitie seemed to be particularly affected by cuts in local authority spending - they mentioned budget cuts on care and housing I think. I don't think CLLN are heavily into those are they?

[rcturner2] 20/9/2016 10:47

Mitie said that a lot of their clients are stating brexit when they are cutting work, which I suspect means the clients are getting shot of Mitie because they are useless and saying brexit just to make the whole thing easier.

[tini5] 20/9/2016 10:44

Chart doesn't look particularly positive. I'd wait for lower prices to buy.

[wad collector] 20/9/2016 10:08

I do like the Brexit blaming point ; it is a bit like the retailers blaming the weather.
We do remain in a bit of a share price slump though , 2 month low. However , CLLN is not one I worry about long term ; one day it will re-emerge. The trader in me wants to buy again today but I have to remind myself that I have rather a lot here , sit on hands time again.

[rcturner2] 20/9/2016 09:32

It makes sense now you have put revenue and employees the right way round!

[zcaprd7] 20/9/2016 09:21

Or they are booking revenue in a funny way?