Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[lord gnome] 20/9/2016 09:18

Very much sense Matt. CLLN are clearly into the higher added value end of the market. Not sure how much these figures can be manipulated, but taken at face value they look very good for CLLN.

[thorpematt] 20/9/2016 08:26

Company name; Employees(thousands); Revenue(£m); rev per employee

MTO Mitie Group PLC 62,674 2,231.90 35,611.26
SRP Serco Group plc 96,462 3,177.00 32,935.25
CLLN Carillion plc 32,055 3,950.70 123,247.54
IRV Interserve plc 47,216 3,204.60 67,871.06


CLLN as we can see produces a much higher return per employee

Make sense?

[rcturner2] 20/9/2016 07:17

The numbers for CLLN and IRV don't make sense.

[thorpematt] 19/9/2016 23:36

I think currently you can sort the well-led businesses from the rest by using one easy measure:-

Those that state that BREXIT is the reason for their business not performing....and those that speak more truthfullly and note that in reality not much has presently changed. The recent TS from TRI (pointedly and almost comically) being an example of the latter. MTO the former.

In terms of MTO they have entered and expanded into business models at a point in the cycles where significant headwinds prevail. Long-term these may well prove fruitful as their CEO has strategised but right now something of a storm.

Knowing CLLN they'll probably try and merge into it, citing it as some sort of bargain opoortunity. Looking at the valuations for the 2 companies and utilising underlying profits as a suitable yardstick I'd have to say CLLN looks the more attractive by some distance.

Incidently FWIW the biggest problem facing MTO moving forwardis recruitment IMO. Much of their business model relys upon the low end of the employment market. The outlook for UK employers who rely upon this end of the spectrum is truly dreadful at this juncture. I won't go into a long discussion on this topic at this juncture but I suspect we'll here a lot more on the topic in the coming months. MTO are talking about cost savings. Chance wil be a fine thing is my view, because their cost are basically human resources.



Company name Revenue Employees Rev. /employee

MTO Mitie Group PLC 62,674 2,231.90 35,611.26
SRP Serco Group plc 96,462 3,177.00 32,935.25
CLLN Carillion plc 32,055 3,950.70 123,247.54
IRV Interserve plc 47,216 3,204.60 67,871.06

(hopefully those stats are self-explaining?)

[haywards26] 19/9/2016 20:22

Exactly Tini,

The article I saw (BBC news) mentioned BREXIT uncertainties with the delay and even cancellation of contracts occurring.

Hopefully this is Mitie specific only.

[tini5] 19/9/2016 20:16

Was also suggested that Mitie's profit warning didn't bode well for its competitiors such as CLLN. Not sure whether there's any truth to that.

[spoole5] 19/9/2016 18:49

Pretty specific to the company, been on the cards there for a while with the way they overstate revenue.

[haywards26] 19/9/2016 17:43

I see Mitie issued a profit warning this morning..

[rcturner2] 19/9/2016 07:29

The pension deficit is mainly driven by the rates on government bonds and is to a certain extent an accounting issue rather than a real issue. A lot will depend on what multiple is being applied to the calculated payouts, and that varies all over the place in the pension sector.

For example I know for a fact that the Barclays pension scheme is so flush that they will give you 40x your annual payout to get rid of you, whereas other schemes will only let you have 15x your payout to leave.

[8w] 17/9/2016 17:02

Wouldn't stop me topping up at the right price......

[8w] 17/9/2016 16:06

Market cap. £1.1 bn. Pension deficit -£394m. Net debt - £170m add in lease liabilities and that's a total 79 % of market cap. Pension deficit on it's own 34% of market cap. Not great. Could do with a rise in bond yields. All as per IC.

[lord gnome] 17/9/2016 10:02

Agree Adam. The only fly in the ointment that I can see is the pension deficit. Hopefully this is just an actuarial calculation issue and it will take care of itself once interest rates rise to more-normal levels.

[adamb1978] 16/9/2016 21:34

Been gradually averaging down over recent years and am now in the 270s but very long.

People can short all they like but this pays a 7% yield which is 2x covered and recent trading statements show that this is turning the corner....and thats before the likley boost from the autumn statement as spoole5 says above.

If you really want something to put into your pension and forget about its CLLN

[spoole5] 16/9/2016 18:24

Topped up at 2.56 and will top up again if it falls further. Quite happy to hold these for the solid 7.3% divi. Should get a boost from the autumn statement if the rumoured increase in infrastructure spending comes to fruition.

[tini5] 16/9/2016 09:20

I can see the liquidity argument but if shares are not available - the price should go up to encourage some selling, supply and demand.

Shorting in significant numbers (20% if shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0007365546/all is accurate), I think drags a stock down.

[m4rtinu] 16/9/2016 09:05

I have seen it said that "shorting" of shares provides liquidity. I take it that means, it provides access to trade some shares which otherwise might not be available.

As a holder of CLLN, I'm not keen on the level of shorts. Maybe there is a limit where the % shares which are short becomes a detriment to the running of the company.

[gswredland] 16/9/2016 06:31

Looking from the sidelines to get back in. Can't believe the yield is 7%!

[tini5] 15/9/2016 23:25

This stock is massively shorted. Shouldnt be allowed.

[breaktwister] 15/9/2016 17:20

Big support on the chart at this price. If breaks support we could be looking at 220. Madness. Im long.

[shawzie] 13/9/2016 16:30

Thanks to everyone who replied.

[speedsgh] 13/9/2016 12:23

From the interims...

Interim Results -

The interim dividend for 2016 of 5.8 pence per share was approved by the Board on 24 August 2016 and will be paid on 2 November 2016 to shareholders on the register on 2 September 2016 [XD 1 Sept).

[deanforester] 13/9/2016 11:35

shawzie, look in the "News" block above. The second article dated 22 Aug 16 is the one you need.

[daveofdevon] 13/9/2016 10:29

According to my own records the interim div is 5.8p and went XD Sep 1st to be paid on Nov 2nd.