Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[m4rtinu] 17/5/2016 09:55

Just for clarity: $55.6M Decimal point not clear with underline.

[eeza] 13/5/2016 17:42

Pitiful chart.

Shorter's wet dream.

[m4rtinu] 13/5/2016 11:51

Philo - looks like that may be a good call.

"Output in the construction industry slumped 3.6% in March compared with a month earlier official figures show. This is the worst month-on-month performance since December 2012. Economists were expecting a 2.5% drop.

Meanwhile, output fell 1.9% in the three months to the end of march compared with the same period a year earlier."

[philo124] 13/5/2016 09:00

Sold 100%.

[zcaprd7] 12/5/2016 20:38

Pretty weak. Even with the divi...

[lab305] 12/5/2016 17:14

I still think that even knowing about the div ! When does this become a takeover target ?

[gswredland] 12/5/2016 09:49

Thanks Wad

[wad collector] 12/5/2016 08:42

Just in case anyone else thought "here we go again" as the share price dips this am ; they went xd 12.55p

[lab305] 07/5/2016 20:45

It is precisely that herd mentality by shortes that has given rise to this position. The market cap is falsely low. Meanwhile keep paying the dividends and if management continue to run the company well the share price will grind up until a tipping point is reached and a short squeeze will occur.

[shawzie] 06/5/2016 19:43

Only one way for CLLN.
Intangibles £1633m with Shareholder Value £1017m.
IRV now looking like a good short to add to CLLN.

[mirandaj] 06/5/2016 11:31

Don't forget this continues on:

[redartbmud] 06/5/2016 10:12

APAD

The company is split into two arms. Accounts 2015 Revenue:
Support Services 51%
Construction 35%
Joint Ventures 14%

The Support Services arm provides a steady cashflow. There is a small amount of working capital required to set up each contract. ie. Staff are employed by Carillion and billed monthly, so there is a timing lag before payment is received.

They did not comment on contract adds beyond the AGM statement that steve has posted above.
Points that I noted from Howson's report:
A consistent successful strategy. They have repositioned the business to market conditions.
UK slowed down because of the elections, where business was not transacted in the period.
Cashflow was strong at 104% of underlying profit from operations.
Net borrowings have been reduced.

The key to managing construction contracts is to get sufficient upfront revenue to cover working capital, then take key stage payments along the way. Hence the on time, on budget aim.

red

[lab305] 06/5/2016 10:02

Another example this morning of the chasm between this well run company and others in the same sector. Unfortunately the share price still languishes giving a pathetic PE of around 9.4 .
I would have thought 13 was more the mark. Meanwhile I can live on the dividends .
6.4% if you hold for 52 weeks. 10.8% if you hold for 53. ....and still they sell.

[apad] 06/5/2016 09:26

Which is an improvement, steve.
CLLN is half a service company and half a construction company. It's the construction side and its lumpiness that I am a little concerned about.
apad

[stevemarkus] 06/5/2016 09:07

The AGM statement said 96% visibility of revenues for 2016. Carillion do not announce every contract via RNS - you will pick a few up from the construction periodicals and other sources.

Cheers,
Steve.

[apad] 06/5/2016 09:02

Hi red,
There aren't any rns' about contracts on the construction side since Dec.
The results headlines were:

"- New orders and probable orders worth £3.7 billion (2014: £5.1 billion), reflecting the expected impact in the first half of the UK General Election, with £2.7 billion secured in the second half of the year

- Total value of secured and probable orders remained strong at £17.4 billion (2014: £18.6 billion), after removing £0.3 billion from the order book due to selling equity investments in Public Private Partnership projects

- Strong revenue visibility(2) for 2016 of 84% (2014: 85% for 2015)

- Awarded framework agreements worth over £2.0 billion, which is not yet included in the order book or in probable orders, but will give further revenue growth opportunities

- Pipeline of specific contract opportunities increased to £41.4 billion (2014: £39.2 billion) in markets offering good growth potential"

Which is superficially reassuring, but doesn't look that strong and is partly difficult to interpret.

Did you get any indication on that front from the meeting?

apad

[m4rtinu] 06/5/2016 09:01

Mira - good to know that good business practice can be rewarded monetarily.

[rcturner2] 06/5/2016 09:01

I held IRV in the distant past, one of many decent companies that got slaughtered in 08/09. Shocked to see how low the share price is there now.

[m4rtinu] 06/5/2016 08:57

Philo - yes, I just saw that. Unlike CLLN they had announced a couple of new contracts recently. BUT down c. £1.50 (one pound fifty) since start of May. Trading update said problems over contract with Gasification plant in Glasgow which will cost them £70m (from memory).

[philo124] 06/5/2016 08:16

IRV don't look.

[redartbmud] 06/5/2016 07:57

wad

Not at all.
I am just a regular guy who turns up at meetings and asks questions. That way I can make a personal assessment of the management.
The people running Carillion come over as being hardworking, honest and wedded to the culture of the business.
Construction is straightforward. The aim is to deliver on time and within budget. They don't have bells, whistles and flashing lights that dazzle you.

[rcturner2] 06/5/2016 07:47

I think it is almost impossible to get away from confirmation bias. We like the stocks we buy and don't like the ones we sell.

[wad collector] 05/5/2016 23:37

Thanks red , as long as you are not a fantasist who actually is still incarcerated in Dartmoor!

CWA, I suspect that I also suffer confirmation bias.