Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[gavapentin] 19/5/2015 09:47

Please no back slapping, we are not in the US ;)

[quepassa] 19/5/2015 09:38

Thank you.

QP

[rcturner2] 19/5/2015 09:33

QP, superb posts as always.

[quepassa] 19/5/2015 09:20

Following on from the recent move by the influential Church of England, Oxford University - one of the world's largest and wealthiest academic institutions- is to shun direct investment in coal and oil sands companies.

All according to today's FT which continues that this is hailed as another victory by fossil fuel divestment campaigners.

Additionally, the University of Cambridge has now set up a working party to explore its own position about climate change factors in investment decisions.

It would not surprise if we don't in due course find that Cambridge too starts factoring in climate change to investment criteria.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 15/5/2015 16:42

1 pound paid

[neilyb675] 15/5/2015 10:58

could not be more bullish here

[quepassa] 15/5/2015 10:52

Net Cash 2014 = £15m
Net Cash 2015 = £2.5m


and

Why no figure for Kestrel income Q1 2015 this time?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 15/5/2015 10:41

extremely bullish

[quepassa] 15/5/2015 10:18

The question stands.

Why no figure for Kestrel income Q1 2015 this time?

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 15/5/2015 10:11

very bullish

[christh] 15/5/2015 10:06

I am not wasting my time with an idiot!
If you are so concerned call them!


The directors dealings confirms the confidence of the directors buying shares with their own money in their pension fund.

here is the link

[quepassa] 15/5/2015 08:51

I'd be interested to hear from others why they think APF this time has not given income figures for Q1 2015 for Kestrel.

They gave it in 2013 and 2014 (and most likely before but I haven't checked ).

I can't personally imagine that they don't know as they would need it to calculate and give their global royalty income figure.

APF have been banging on long enough about the expected increases in production at Kestrel after the longwall event and saying that mining was moving back into their royalty lands.

So why this time, and after all the continuing forecasts of increases at Kestrel, do they not give a figure for Kestrel for Q1 2015?

Can someone please explain or suggest why APF are silent on Q1 Kestrel income for 2015 this time.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 14/5/2015 18:00

Very bullish

[quepassa] 14/5/2015 17:09

yes.
in life you generally get what you pay for.

last year APF was around 200p. Now it is less than a quid. You have lost half of your capital.

last year BT was around 350p Now it is around 460p. Your capital has increased by 30%.

is a dividend of 8p really good when you have lost 50% of your capital in a year?

do the maths for yourself - although that doesn't appear to be a strong point of yours.

Or as the Americans say, go figure.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 14/5/2015 16:33

QP,

sour grapes!
You never bought at 82p, you are not buying now at 98p, you will not be buying at 150p, you will not be buying at 200p etc.

At 98p the yield of 8p a year is very good.
BT's yield is 12p and you have to pay 465p or BP at 455p and get 8p a year.

[neilyb675] 14/5/2015 15:11

A significant part of the Group's strategy is to reduce dependence on Kestrel royalty income. We were pleased to see this happening in the first quarter as demonstrated by the first royalty income being earned from the Group's two most recent royalty acquisitions, Narrabri and Maracás, taking the number of producing royalties in the portfolio to six. Combined with the Group's existing producing royalties, overall royalty income in the first quarter was £2.3 million compared with £0.5 million in the previous quarter and £3.5 million in 2014 as a whole. We remain confident that royalty income for 2015 will be significantly higher than in 2014.



As previously communicated, an important agreement was reached with Rio Tinto in 2014 to provide the Group with greater visibility over the next twelve months of the projected tonnage within the Group's private royalty land at the Kestrel mine. The Group is increasingly confident in information provided from the mine to forecast our future royalty revenues: the actual tonnage on which our Q1 2015 royalty was based was in line with that previously forecasted by Rio Tinto during 2014. The guidance we are now receiving suggests that production and our share of that production is increasing above Rio Tinto's previous forecasts and that our expectation of production within our land rising to approximately 90% by 2017 is well on track.

[quepassa] 14/5/2015 14:42

This statement sums it all up???


Not at all!

You just take everything at face value without thinking about it.




As always you need to dig with APF announcements and results.


It is standard market practice to compare like Quarters with like Quarters.

When APF produced their corresponding May Trading Update last year in 2014, that's what they did. They compared Q1 2014 with Q1 2013.

What have they done this time? They have compared Q1 2015 with Q4 2014. - You perhaps don't need a maths PHD to work out why.


So this is the full story for total royalty income:

Q1 2013 £4.6m

Q1 2014 £2.3m

Q1 2015 £2.3m




So, using a like-for-like Quarterly comparisons of 2014 vs. 2015 there is zero royalty growth according to my reading of the Updates. - Even with the new and much-heralded Narrabri acquisition.


But what really needs be given in my view is how much royalty has been received in Q1 2015 from EACH of:-

Kestrel
Maracas
Narrabri
Others


APF should know because in the last two years APF were able to say that they had received royalties from Kestrel in Q1 2013 of A$4.2million and Q1 2014 of A$2.8million. So why no concrete figure for Kestrel this time? Why don't they give a breakdown for this year rather than a global figure?

Certain parties may or may not consider wanting to ask APF just how much royalty they did in fact get from Kestrel in Q1 2015?


The Cash position is also interesting to compare to last year.

In terms of Cash, for Q1 2014, APF had cash of £15m.

This has dwindled to £6.5million in Q1 2015 with borrowings under their bank facility of $6m which means net cash of around just £2.5million. This is a far cry from the £15m cash held this time last year.

Net Cash has reduced from £15million in Q1 2014 to approx. £2.5m in Q1 2015.

With cash having fallen so much and an expensive dividend policy to support, the cash position of APF is now an important factor to focus on. - The Company now has debt to pay interest on which is a big departure from its historic situation and formerly proud policy of being debt-free.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 14/5/2015 11:48

SLOWLY,SLOWLY CATCHY MONKEY.

This will go back up and in my opinion will be around 150p by August.
Growth is returning and is about time not to rely on Kestrel forever.
Very good strategy in investing in Narrabri

Narrabri and Maracás started paying royalties

This statement sums it all
overall royalty income in the first quarter was £2.3 million compared with £0.5 million in the previous quarter and £3.5 million in 2014 as a whole. We remain confident that royalty income for 2015 will be significantly higher than in 2014

[gavapentin] 14/5/2015 09:54

Buywell - care to comment now about your pennant?
Thanks in advance


buywell2
2 Apr'15 - 15:26 - 7128 of 7215 0 0



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[rrr] 14/5/2015 09:31

Sounding encouraging, yes, including about the dividend policy.

[neilyb675] 14/5/2015 09:24

98p on the ask

[neilyb675] 14/5/2015 09:23

very good update, especially liked this:

"The first quarter of 2015 has been encouraging for Anglo Pacific with the first royalty income earned from our two recent acquisitions, Narrabri and Maracás. We are also pleased with the underlying production in Q1 2015 at Narrabri, which is ahead of our expectations. In addition, we are increasingly confident about the recovery of royalty income from Kestrel, supported by the level of information now received from Rio Tinto."