Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 31/7/2015 09:51

chris, the fact that you cannot understand other people's motives is more a reflection of you not them.

QP held the stock and then sold. Now he takes an interest in the long term movement of the stock and the sector. Pretty much the same reason I follow this thread.

People who sell a specific stock tend to be biased against it consciously or unconsciously.

[christh] 31/7/2015 09:45

bolador,
I concur with your post.
QP has no holding in APF, yet is permanently in this thread blaming
management, company progress,investments,coal royalties,et. anything he can think of.

I have come to the conclusion that is either a disgruntled employee who was fired
or laid off or someone who lost money shorting APF.

Weird character!

[bolador] 31/7/2015 08:55

The bearish view of QP has been supported by an impressive collection of data, so far. The recent selective quoting about dividend sustain sustainability not so good.Reading all recent posts, lastly from christh, will show that clearly. For now I am puzzled by QP's motive.

[christh] 31/7/2015 08:37

"This, along with an expected continued recovery of production within our Kestrel royalty area will further underpin Anglo Pacific's dividend."


see post 7482
for those who can not read or comprehend!

[christh] 31/7/2015 08:12

What Is The Future of Coal?


5/01/2013 @ 8:12AM 19,266 views

Coal’s potential transformation might be juxtaposed next to that which occurred in the telecom sector. There, rotary phones were replaced with touch tones that are being supplanted by mobiles and internet protocols.

While the coal lobby has fought tenaciously, utilities are ditching their older and dirtier — but still workable — power plants built around the 1950s. Instead, they are installing modern pollution controls and experimenting with advanced coal generation. In fact the U.S. Energy Information Administration says that coal-fired facilities are using $30 billion worth of scrubbers. It says that such devices had been placed at 110 plants in 34 states between 2007 and 2011.

So, 60% of the coal fleet now has that equipment. That is working to cut sulfur dioxide emissions that cause acid rain — an emission that has fallen by 68% between 1990 and 2011, the agency says.

At the same time, some deep-pocketed utilities — with the assistance of the federal government — are building coal gasification units.
Those facilities can cleanse coal of nearly all of its emissions before the fumes leave the smokestack. And because the technology works to concentrate the carbon dioxide, that release could be captured and buried. Here, Duke Energy and Southern Company have such projects while the FutureGen 2.0 is entering a new, critical phase.

“The consequence of our modernization program … is going to allow us to retire almost 7,000 megawatts of owned coal plants,” says Duke Energy Chief Executive Jim Rogers, in a conference call. “That is almost 50 units that will be retired. And it will be replaced with more efficient coal and more efficient gas plants …”

Read more on

[christh] 31/7/2015 08:10

Narrabri mine record production
Whitehaven Coal has announced record Narrabri mine production for the quarter and fiscal year ending June 30, 2015. Run of Mine ("ROM") coal production for the quarter was 2.7 Mt, up 57% compared to 1.7 Mt in the quarter ended June 30, 2014. Saleable coal production for the quarter was 2.3 Mt, with coal sales of 2.2 Mt. ROM and saleable coal production in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2015 were 7.7 Mt and 7.2 Mt respectively, 36% and 37% higher than the previous fiscal year.

As previously announced by Whitehaven Coal, a scheduled annual longwall changeout is planned to begin in August 2015 with a target changeout period of five weeks.

Anglo Pacific acquired the royalty on March 11, 2015 and is entitled to royalty income over 100% of sales from the Narrabri mine from January 1, 2015.

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of Anglo Pacific, commented:

"We are pleased to see Whitehaven Coal achieve a second consecutive quarterly production record at Narrabri. The realised fiscal year 2015 ROM production of 7.7 Mt, substantially higher than Whitehaven Coal's previous guidance of 6.5 Mt at the time of the royalty acquisition along with the more recent guidance of 7.0 Mt to 7.2 Mt, represents the delivery on our strategy to acquire royalties with strong production upside potential. This, along with an expected continued recovery of production within our Kestrel royalty area will further underpin Anglo Pacific's dividend."

[quepassa] 31/7/2015 00:21

Here are the exact words used in the video interview by the CEO on the topic of the dividend and dividend policy.

QUOTE

...so we can borrow a small mount of money if necessary to see us through that level....

UNQUOTE


Seems pretty clear what is being talked about.




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 30/7/2015 22:46

QP sorry about the QC slip but I do find the precision of your arguments quite impressive

In the interview [ I could not find the use of "countenance borrowing money to support the dividend." , but I may have been on the wrong link.

Apart from that, when the words "countenance", "tolerate", "allow" or "admit" are used in Queen's English, is it not with the added understanding of "if, (as or when), necessary"?

- I suggested some royalties so that the possible shortfall could be calculated

[quepassa] 30/7/2015 17:33

If you listened to the interview, they said they would countenance borrowing money to support the dividend.

Why would The Company have said that if they can cover all dividends from income?


My name is QP not QC. Interesting slip.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP


ps. given the well-aired discussion relating to the fall in coal prices, would you care to post some price graphs for recent gold prices and uranium?

Or shall we perhaps not go there?

[piedro] 30/7/2015 17:01

"Borrowing money to pay a dividend"

I presume you have done your maths on that one QC ...
... before scaring the newboys

Possible 6 month royalty income on:
- 2½m lb uranium
- 2m mt iron
- 1m mt coking coal
- 2m mt thermal coal
- 30k oz gold
- 10m lbs vanadium

AIMHO, BWDIK + DYOR

[quepassa] 30/7/2015 12:10

Thank you for the link.

Very unconvincing interview in my opinion.

You are right that in the interview the Company said they would countenance borrowing money/taking on debt to support the dividend.

Just think about the theoretical concept of that. Borrowing money to pay a dividend. Wow! The balance sheet impact of doing that is highly negative. If you borrow money to pay a dividend, it demonstrates that cash is so tight and that it is not really a dividend at all in my view.

Putting the company into debt is a bad idea in my opinion. That was one of the core strengths of APF for many years in the past that it was not shackled with any debt. Servicing debt on top of dividends will put a mighty strain on the Company finances in my view.

The interview also talks about investing at a low point in the markets which is a good idea. But frankly speaking they have no money with which to do that.

Half-year figures will be out on 26th August.

Hard hat time??







ALL IMO> DYOR.

QP







ps. on 7th. August, they need to cough up the 4p Final 2014 dividend. - With c. 170million shares in issue, that it almost £6.8million. - How will they fund that? From a drawdown under their bank facility or elsewhere?

[cyfran101] 30/7/2015 00:24

Video with CEO:

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/4007/anglo-pacific-chief-keen-to-expand-portfolio-4007.html

States APF is prepared to use some debt to keep 8p dividend going in the short term with Narrabri and Kestrel ramp ups maintaining it from that point onwards.

[neilyb675] 28/7/2015 08:04

excellent posts christh

[christh] 28/7/2015 06:52

Overtime to stay at Collie Coal Mine
28 July, 2015 Ben Hagemann

Griffin Coal have been prevented from removing overtime from the working roster at its Collie mine, thanks to a Fair Work Commission decision handed down yesterday.

The miner sought to reduce the working week from 42 hours to 35 hours in order to avoid paying penalty rates, with plans to operate only on week days.

In Griffin Coal’s submission to the Fair Work Commission, it was stated that there were no prohibitions against roster changes in the Production Agreement, and that reference to a “current roster” indicated the possibility of a future roster.

MORE AND MORE COAL IS PRODUCED BECAUSE IT IS IN DEMAND
Do not let the prophets of Doom mislead you!

More on

[christh] 28/7/2015 06:36

The coal is no good, many advocate the end of coal.
But how false is that, how much are the trying to con us, trying to pull a veil in front of our eyes.
More coalmines are planned,more coal mines are openned up.

COAL EXISTS AND WILL EXIST TO THE END OF TIME AND USED UNTIL THEN.

New $6.7 billion coal mine proposed for the Galilee Basin
Mining Australia Newsletter
28 July, 2015 Vicky Validakis

An Environmental Impact Statement has been submitted for a new $6.7 billion coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.

The China Stone Coal project is being proposed by MacMines Austasia, part of the Meijin Energy Group.

The company wants to build a large-scale greenfield coal mine with a yield of up to 38 million tonnes per annum of thermal coal.

The EIS said the project would create 3900 jobs and contribute $5.9 billion in government royalties over its 50-year lifespan.

Coal will be mined using both open-cut and underground mining methods. Open-cut mining will involve multiple draglines and truck and shovel pre-striping. Underground mining will see up to three operating longwalls in two underground mining areas.

READ MORE

[quepassa] 24/7/2015 11:46

Momentum strong!

Ever since their Chief Investment Officer unexpectedly left the Company very soon after the large fund-raising and acquisition, this share has slumped.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 24/7/2015 10:52

Although the volume is low at 52,601 the buys are there and the price is at 81.5p
but the momentum is strong to run upwards to 120p.

[rcturner2] 24/7/2015 10:35

Very weak share price. You have to hope 80p holds otherwise there will be carnage as the placing shares get dumped.

[christh] 24/7/2015 10:11

4 Things to Know About the Coal Industry
by Zacks Equity Research Published on March 13, 2015

To Sum Up
The black diamond hasn’t seen its last days yet. For the aggressively growing and energy hungry Asian economies, coal seems to be the most popular source of power generation in spite of the inroads being made by renewables.

Peabody Energy expects annual global coal demand to rise by 500 million tonnes by 2017. The company further adds that over this period, nearly 225 gigawatts of new coal-fired generation plants are expected to be built, supporting an estimated 8% to 10% increase in seaborne thermal coal demand.

A large section of the population in the developing nations of Asia and Africa are yet to have access to electricity. For most of these developing nations, thermal coal is the preferred choice of electricity generation. A disparity between demand and supply in these growing economies will compel them to import coal from abroad. U.S. coal shipments are thus expected to rise going forward.

As per a report from the International Energy Agency, total global coal demand for coal is estimated to touch 9 billion tonnes by 2019. Per the report, coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019. China will be responsible for nearly 60% of the global increase in coal demand, despite its efforts to moderate consumption over the long run.

hxxp://www.zacks.com/commentary/38523/4-things-to-know-about-the-coal-industry

[christh] 24/7/2015 10:03

What Is The Future of Coal?

5/01/2013 @ 8:12AM 19,266 views

Coal’s potential transformation might be juxtaposed next to that which occurred in the telecom sector. There, rotary phones were replaced with touch tones that are being supplanted by mobiles and internet protocols.

While the coal lobby has fought tenaciously, utilities are ditching their older and dirtier — but still workable — power plants built around the 1950s. Instead, they are installing modern pollution controls and experimenting with advanced coal generation. In fact the U.S. Energy Information Administration says that coal-fired facilities are using $30 billion worth of scrubbers. It says that such devices had been placed at 110 plants in 34 states between 2007 and 2011.

So, 60% of the coal fleet now has that equipment. That is working to cut sulfur dioxide emissions that cause acid rain — an emission that has fallen by 68% between 1990 and 2011, the agency says.

At the same time, some deep-pocketed utilities — with the assistance of the federal government — are building coal gasification units.
Those facilities can cleanse coal of nearly all of its emissions before the fumes leave the smokestack. And because the technology works to concentrate the carbon dioxide, that release could be captured and buried. Here, Duke Energy and Southern Company have such projects while the FutureGen 2.0 is entering a new, critical phase.

“The consequence of our modernization program … is going to allow us to retire almost 7,000 megawatts of owned coal plants,” says Duke Energy Chief Executive Jim Rogers, in a conference call. “That is almost 50 units that will be retired. And it will be replaced with more efficient coal and more efficient gas plants …”

Read more on

[quepassa] 24/7/2015 09:37

Listening to Mark Cutifani being interviewed live on Bloomberg at 8.15am this morning, he very much made the point that he thought precious metals would eventually recover but that bulk commodities were in for a very tough time ahead.

Many would give a lot of credence to the opinion of The CEO of Anglo-American.

The problem with some of the majors in the coal sector (Rio and BHP/South32 in particular) is that they are not just cost-cutting and laying off staff and idling certain mines, they are INCREASING volumes into an already over-supplied market.

Just read again how they improved things for coal at Anglo Am. Nothing to do with demand or increasing commodity price. Their strategy is to produce more and more, cheaper and cheaper. It is a disaster for the sector. And certain smaller coal miners will be driven into the wall. Even the once mighty Walter Energy Inc filed for bankruptcy.

Their actions only serve to exacerbate the fundamental problem in the coal sector of oversupply, falling prices and a switch to renewables.

Hence the coal price crash.

Moreover, asset values of coal investments are further being written down. That is bad news for everyone's balance-sheet.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[stevie blunder] 24/7/2015 09:15

Yes QP, what you say is true, but you forgot to mention their coal operations:

"Our Coal businesses in Australia and South Africa delivered a 3% underlying EBIT increase due to a combination of productivity improvements, including unit cost reductions of 13% in Australia and 3% in South Africa in local currency terms, and volume discipline in Canada."

It is story of a company adjusting to a new pricing environment, and quite right too. And the Anglo share price rose (a little) on these results. The whole commodities sector is going through pain, but will come out the other side leaner and fitter, and more profitable. IMHO

[christh] 24/7/2015 09:15

"This, along with an expected continued recovery of production within our Kestrel royalty area will further underpin Anglo Pacific's dividend."

This means the dividend will be more than 4p next time.
That's why he is been buying shares in his pension.It will be a nice booster for the
shareholders.
So far is 8p per share a year which is extremely good.
But the statement hints that the dividend will be increased.

[christh] 24/7/2015 09:09

Narrabri mine record production
Whitehaven Coal has announced record Narrabri mine production for the quarter and fiscal year ending June 30, 2015. Run of Mine ("ROM") coal production for the quarter was 2.7 Mt, up 57% compared to 1.7 Mt in the quarter ended June 30, 2014. Saleable coal production for the quarter was 2.3 Mt, with coal sales of 2.2 Mt. ROM and saleable coal production in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2015 were 7.7 Mt and 7.2 Mt respectively, 36% and 37% higher than the previous fiscal year.

As previously announced by Whitehaven Coal, a scheduled annual longwall changeout is planned to begin in August 2015 with a target changeout period of five weeks.

Anglo Pacific acquired the royalty on March 11, 2015 and is entitled to royalty income over 100% of sales from the Narrabri mine from January 1, 2015.

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of Anglo Pacific, commented:

"We are pleased to see Whitehaven Coal achieve a second consecutive quarterly production record at Narrabri. The realised fiscal year 2015 ROM production of 7.7 Mt, substantially higher than Whitehaven Coal's previous guidance of 6.5 Mt at the time of the royalty acquisition along with the more recent guidance of 7.0 Mt to 7.2 Mt, represents the delivery on our strategy to acquire royalties with strong production upside potential. This, along with an expected continued recovery of production within our Kestrel royalty area will further underpin Anglo Pacific's dividend."