Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 30/6/2015 09:52

The mouse is squeaking again.
Post 7329 refers.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 30/6/2015 09:19

On the contrary.

If Rio, one of the most highly regarded mining companies in the world, is now considering selling off its coal assets and exiting this market, it demonstrates just how bleak the outlook is for coal.

What is better? Kestrel being operated by world-class Rio or potentially by some mid-level new mining company?

Similar to BHP who hived off its coal assets into South32, any possible sale by Rio of its coal interests, indicates just how bad things have become for the prospects of coal.

Especially for seaborne coal from Australia which will rapidly continue to lose market share to new suppliers in the Far East, India and Asia such as Mongolia where there are humungous supplies of very high grade and very cheap coal, including especially coking.

The cost of transportation for these new local supplies compared to the cost of sea transportation from Australia is a fraction and makes Australian seaborne coal look increasingly like the expensive and illogical option.

The State of Queensland is taking a massive hit on its forecast coal royalties.

If Queensland is expecting a hit on its coal royalties, that bodes ill in my opinion for Australian coal royalties in general.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[christh] 30/6/2015 08:26

Coal in high demand.
X2 resources could acquire Rio Tinto’s coal assets.

According to the Financial Times, sources close to the matter said discussions between Davies’ new mining company X2 Resources and Rio were serious, but in the early stages.

The source said the talks included both the sale of Rio’s thermal coal assets in NSW, as well as the company’s metallurgical coal assets in QLD.

Davis has raised $US5.6 billion from investors in a bid to buy mining assets and launch X2 Resources as a mid-level diversified resource company.

Centennial's Springvale coal mine extension approved

[neilyb675] 29/6/2015 14:29

BoD just keeping buying....

On June 29, 2015, Mr. Treger acquired 5,000 Shares, via his pension fund, at a price of £0.91 per Share. The transaction took place on the London Stock Exchange.



Following this notification, the total beneficial holding of Shares by Mr. Treger and his connected persons is now 5,476,454 shares, representing 3.22% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[rcturner2] 27/6/2015 11:17

Nasty head and shoulders forming in the chart.

[quepassa] 25/6/2015 09:04

The Queensland State Budget is to take a near AUS$3billion hit/royalty write-down over the next four years on the back of falling mining royalties.

The State of Queensland's Treasurer, Curtis Pitt, made this announcement yesterday citing weaker commodity prices and softening global demand as factors in this move, according to an article in Australian Mining.

Looks like Queensland doesn't necessarily see a robust period ahead for the next few years for its mining royalty receipts.

The Queensland State Budget will be handed down in three weeks on 14th. July.

It may or may not be interesting to note how the State of Queensland is viewing/ treating/ forecasting its own royalty receipts.

Today's article in Australian Mining refers:-




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 23/6/2015 11:11

ex div on Thursday, 4p

[djgrantb] 23/6/2015 10:11

And your motivation is Que Passa Hombre???, you do bring a smile to my face in the morning. Negativity is such a derisive emotion.

[neilyb675] 18/6/2015 14:01

can stop buying........

Anglo Pacific Group PLC (the "Company") (LSE: APF, TSX: APY) announces that it received notification on June 17, 2015 of the following transactions by connected persons of Mr. Michael Blyth, Chairman of the Company.

On June 17, 2015, Mr. Blyth acquired 5,250 Shares, via his pension fund, at a price of GBP0.95 per Share and Mrs. Carolyn Blyth, Mr. Blyth's spouse, bought 6,200 Shares at a price of GBP0.95 per Share. The transactions took place on the London Stock Exchange.

Following this notification, the total beneficial holding of Shares by Mr. Blyth and his connected persons is now 94,822 shares, representing 0.06% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company respectively

[quepassa] 17/6/2015 18:07

Hi Stevie,

Good post. I have voted your post up.

Thanks for interesting contribution and link to the articles - unfortunately you can only get the first page of the article without subscribing - but they give a good flavour anyway.

A couple of points occur to me. First of all the unmissably patriotic title of where the articles appear - The Australian. No bias then given Australia's commodities based economy! The articles also make me think of Christine Keeler's famous words.

Secondly, I think the prof. who wrote the article has many good points but is in many ways arguing against himself. - It is fundamentally because of the enormous recent growth in the use of coal that we now are where we are at crisis levels with greenhouse gases.

It is this very increase in the recent incremental use of coal which has precipitated the global warming crisis due to excessive CO2 emmissions. Coal has sown the seeds of its own destruction.

Of course, it can't happen overnight but it seems that the case against coal is growing all the time and is beginning to impact in a meaningful way on people's perception of the wisdom or otherwise of continuing to use coal.

There is a heightened awareness - even in China which has become a victim of appallingly smog-clogged cities due to coal use- that the continued use of coal is severely damaging to their local environment as well as to global weather patterns and increasing extreme weather. China is beginning to do something about it with clean air policies etc just as many Westernised countries have increasingly done.

Maybe a tipping point has been reached where instead of coal use being ramped up, it is starting to be ramped down - especially as renewables are becoming more and more cost-effective.

Thanks for the post.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[stevie blunder] 16/6/2015 19:38

Just for balance:



Over the last decade, global coal use grew by 968 million tonnes of oil equivalent. That is 4 times faster than renewables, 2.8 times faster than oil and 50 per cent faster than gas. That’s hardly justification for a requiem. - See more at:

and:

The empirical evidence suggests that interest in the sector from lenders and investors remains strong. One of the anti-coal movement’s own groups, Bankwatch, has complained that global financing for coal mining rose to $US66 billion in 2014, up from $US55bn in 2013 and a 360 per cent increase from 2005. - See more at:

You know, there is what people SAY, and there is what people DO........ they are not always the same.

[quepassa] 16/6/2015 08:21

The Pope Backs Climate Change Science, Denounces World Leaders.

The Vatican will release its encyclical letter at noon on Thursday.

According to Bloomberg, the letter will be a call to action in the form of a letter to the church's bishops. The Pope and spiritual leader of 1.2 billion Catholics is adding his voice to calls to rein in greenhouse gases.

Expect much media coverage on and from Thursday.

See the Bloomberg article here:-




Another influential voice supporting the anti-CO2 emissions lobbies. Many would consider The Pope and The Vatican to be the most influential voices of all.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 15/6/2015 15:52

directors just keep buying and buying..........

On June 15, 2015, Mr. Treger acquired 5,000 ordinary shares of 2 pence each in the Company ("Shares") via his pension fund, at a price of £0.954 per Share. The transaction took place on the London Stock Exchange.



Following this notification, the total beneficial holding of Shares by Mr. Treger and his connected persons is now 5,471,454 shares, representing 3.22% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 11:54

post 7329 refers.

[christh] 15/6/2015 11:54

QuePassa 15 Jun'15 - 11:41 - 7343 of 7344


you can go back to the mental asylum all is safe.

QP is a nutter!

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 11:52

are Neilyb and christh the same mouse ??

[neilyb675] 15/6/2015 11:48

are QP and RCT the same person ??

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 11:41

do we hear a mouse squeaking again?

post 7329 refers.

QP

[christh] 15/6/2015 11:37

The results due this quarter will show a significant jump in royalties mainly
driven by Kestrel mine but also from the recent investment.
8p total for the year in dividends at this current price of 95p yields 9% or better.

So shut your mouth QP and your drones!

[bolador] 15/6/2015 11:27

RCTurner2

Agreed energy consumption does not necessarily rise over time and yes it does not make sense to chase such a market. My point is that everything has a price and even in declining markets it is possible to derive a large percentage return from income or royalty payments once all and sundry have given up on the sector.
There does not have to be any growth just a slight improvement in sentiment can chalk up significant gains.The APF board must think so and have acted accordingly.Time will tell.

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 10:36

And UK market is specifically one where investors are more and more coming under divestment influences and pressure.

It is becoming known as the fossil fuel divestment movement.

Even the Beeb has jumped on the case now with important articles on the subject.

This is an extract from the BBC article headed " Can the divestment movement tame climate change?"....


"The divestment strategy has two objectives.

First, there's a financial imperative, where campaigners say withdrawing funds and support from energy companies makes it much harder for them to operate in the marketplace.

Secondly, divestment can, to a certain extent, "stigmatise" certain industries, making them unpopular with wider society.

The movement is growing"


Read the full BBC article from just three days ago on the BBC web-site at this link





ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[rcturner2] 15/6/2015 10:10

What I don't understand is why investors want to chase such a market, the price is falling, demand is at best constant, over supplied, under political pressure, large investors exiting, what is attractive about this? The idea is to make money, look for good stocks in growing sectors. APF is a poor stock in a poor sector.

[quepassa] 15/6/2015 10:05

We have been over all that before.

If coal demand is , for sake of argument not increasing/not decreasing, but constant into the future, just why have coal prices fallen so much?

The same Lex column quotes thermal coal (for electricity) as down from $120 per tonne in 2012 to $59 now.

It's all the new mines in India and the Far East that will start/have started producing locally their own cheap coal and this will heavily knock back other producers. Such as Australia.

So the demand may indeed be constant according to many commentators ( although my personal view is that it will fall dramatically ) but the SUPPLY SIDE for coal has dramatically increased. There is a basic SUPPLY-DEMAND imbalance. That is why prices have tumbled. That is why certain geographical locations will suffer more. Seaborne coal is de facto much more expensive than locally mined coal.

If you combine the fundamental SUPPLY-DEMAND imbalance with the growing clout of the anti-CO2 divestment movements, it is a very unhealthy situation.

The Western World will more and more pull back from using and mining coal and China/India and the Third World countries which may continue using coal, will increasingly mine their own coal locally.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP