Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 16/7/2015 09:24

How do the figures compare to last year?

[quepassa] 16/7/2015 09:12

TWENTY-TWO PERCENT of APF royalty lands at Kestrel mined in first half 2015.


Break-down of Kestrel production from APF lands:-

Q1 2015 1.134mt (imputed from Q2 figures)

Q2 2015 1.118mt (stated in RNS )

H1 2015 2.252mt (stated in RNS )


Looks like Kestrel production REDUCED from Q1 to Q2 rather than increasing in my opinion.

Can someone please double-check my figures. Piedro??

I think my figures are correct and if so, I thought that Kestrel production was meant to increase/ ramp up over the course of the year. Reduction in Kestrel production from Q1 to Q2 may or may not look unexpected and hard-to-fathom in my opinion.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[neilyb675] 16/7/2015 08:25

WOWOWOWOWOW - EXCELLENT RNS !!!!!!!!!!!!

Julian Treger, Chief Executive Officer of Anglo Pacific, commented:

"The first two quarters of 2015 have been encouraging for Anglo Pacific with revenues from the Company's Kestrel royalty continuing to perform in line with our expectations. Kestrel production within the Company's royalty area remains on track to increase significantly in the second half of 2015, and will further underpin Anglo Pacific's dividend."

[christh] 13/7/2015 09:38

Newcastle coal terminal up for final approval

Supporters of the proposed T4 coal loader at Newcastle will have to jump through a final hoop today, with 100 speakers registered to address a Planning Assessment Commission (PAC) hearing over two days.

The hearing will be attended by representatives for the coal industry such as Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) boss Henny Du Plooy, as well as vocal opponents of the coal industry.

The T4 project, which will be built on Kooragang Island, was recommended for approval by the PAC late last year, and last month received approval from the state planning department.

The PCWS facility has capacity to load 142 million tonnes of coal per year, and the $5 billion T4 loader will increase this capacity by 70 million tonnes.

Newcastle Herald reported that at the height of the boom PCWS moved a maximum of 112 million tonnes per year.

PWCS chief executive Hennie du Plooy recently said exports from the Newcastle terminals were on par with this time last year, despite the “challenging economic climate”.

A report from Coal Services showed coal exports from NSW are up 5 per cent on the previous financial year, indicating a steady demand in the Asian regions, however coal exports taken a massive hit nationally, down 38.2 per cent for the first five months of 2015 compared to the previous year.

The T4 construction project is expected to create approximately 1500 new jobs and 80 operations positions after completion.

[christh] 10/7/2015 18:41

bolador 10 Jul'15 - 14:12 - 7430 of 7432

The use of Coal will never end but will grow as technology has advanced to contain
or filter out the harmful gasses and substances in power generators or furnaces
like a catalytic converter that is used in the cars.
Some countries have committed no to use nuclear power to generate energy due
to so many accidents.
The use of coal is likely to grow because of energy demand as the world is using more electricity will push the prices up.
Coal is the cheapest way of generating electricity and that will always be the case.

[quepassa] 10/7/2015 16:31

Piedro,

Thank you for sharing your frank and credible views about the management.

What is fundamentally and grossly flawed, in my opinion only, with management's current corporate strategy is their stubbornness with maintaining the dividend which seems, in my opinion only, to be badly damaging to the Company at a time of low coal prices and deficient royalty income.

Surely they should use any income, however reduced it may nowadays be, to buy those cheap deals and feather the Company's nest for the future and for better times ahead.

I have my views why they do it.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[piedro] 10/7/2015 16:01

Quite exciting really
None knows where the price of coal will be next year
We can only predict and each to his own

[bolador] 10/7/2015 14:12

The prices of coal, thats it. All the other words and calculations on this site are subordinate to the prices of coal. If the world starts growing above forecast the shares of APF will probably do well.If their royalties fall because of falling coal prices then they are probably doomed. Piedro knows his numbers as does QP but are they likely numbers ? They do not know the future prices of coal.

[piedro] 09/7/2015 10:22

QP,

My take is that the directors were very "green" when they took over the company and clearly did not understand the finer details of the business

There was that silly talk of getting rid of Au royalties, they sold off Royalco which was paying a dividend, then they got that Canadian expert in and virtually gave away their Groundhog licences to Atrum who were mopping up the area.

Still talking big there was the Placing/Narrabri acquisition, which as you have pointed out was not really a diversification.

Certainly Mark Potter (39) could not take the heat; Julian (53) being a bit more mature may be more stable.

AIMO

[rcturner2] 09/7/2015 10:17

I don't think Chris does numbers.

He prefers mindless optimism about the shares he has bought.

[ned] 09/7/2015 10:01

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[quepassa] 09/7/2015 09:57

You are 7329.

QP

[piedro] 09/7/2015 09:49

I admire your optimism Christh.

Can you give some numbers to indicate how it will work?

[quepassa] 09/7/2015 09:45

You just don't understand.

What is better selling 100 apples at $330 each or selling 110 apples at $90 each?

The crux is the low royalty tariff which kicks in at less than $100 per tonne.

Don't start goading me again. Why do you continually wish to pick a fight? Can't you have a sensible discussion without resorting immediately to puerile exchanges.

ALL IMO.
DYOR.
QP

[christh] 09/7/2015 09:37

QP,
see that! DO NOT IGNORE OR PRETEND YOU HAVE NOT SEEN IT

christh 9 Jul'15 - 07:42 - 7417 of 7421

[quepassa] 09/7/2015 09:35

Thanks Piedro.

But potentially selling more assets to support the dividend means the Net Worth of the Company further decreases. That's not good in my view.

They just upped their bank facility in February to $30m and have given the bank, if my reading is correct, a FIRST CHARGE over the assets of the Company.

So, now the assets of APF are encumbered as to a First Charge.

Things may or may not be more restrictive than before regarding disposals.





On your other point, let's hope that your words about "our man" come true.

Personally speaking, I still don't fully understand why the CIO left so soon after the Placing/Narrabri acquisition. Wouldn't it add more comfort if it were "Our MEN"?

Surely the CIO's departure was not foreseen before the acquisition and is a surprise in my view.

This is what Page 26 of the recent Prospectus says:-

QUOTE
The success of the Group depends on the services of its Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and other key employees


The Group believes that its future success will depend on the performance of its executive management personnel. Julian Treger has served as the Group’s Chief Executive Officer and as a Director since 21 October 2013. Mr. Treger’s extensive special situations and distressed investing experience focused on coal and iron ore across Canada, the US and Africa. Furthermore, the Group’s Director and Chief Investment Officer, Mark Potter, has extensive knowledge of special situations investing, private equity and natural resources investments. The Directors believe Mr. Treger’s and Mr. Potter’s extensive network of contacts and financial skills are important to its future success. The loss of Mr. Treger’s or Mr. Potter’s services, or of other key members of the Group’s management or other key employees could jeopardise the Group’s ability to maintain its competitive position in the industry.

UNQUOTE





The last two sentences beginning "THE DIRECTORS BELIEVE" could potentially, in my opinion only, be a real concern in view of the CIO's departure.





If the Directors believe it, shouldn't shareholders believe it as well?





ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[rcturner2] 09/7/2015 09:23

I hope so Chris, for your sake, but I am skeptical.

I do not think there is enough cashflow now to support the current dividend, let alone any future increased dividend.

[christh] 09/7/2015 09:19

Yet record exports!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sell Cheap, Sell more !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

More money, more cashflow!

More cashflow, higher Dividends!

More Cashflow, More investment, More revenue,Higher Growth!




These are the equations for a growth company which APF is!

[rcturner2] 09/7/2015 08:53

Since March, the price of thermal coal has fallen from 55 to 40 $/ton.

[christh] 09/7/2015 07:42

Coal exports still breaking records
9 July, 2015 Cole Latimer

Coal exports are still growing, in spite of a weakened market.

Queensland saw a five per cent growth in coal exports year on year, with three coal ports setting new export records, the QRC reports.

The state has shipped 219.4 million tonnes for this financial year.

“QRC analysis of port export data for the 2014-15 financial year shows that three ports broke coal export records, being Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal with exports of 71.6 million tonnes, Hay Point Coal Terminal (43.4 million tonnes) and Abbot Point (28.7 million tonnes). Gladstone Port at 68.5 million tonnes was just short of last year’s record,” the Queensland Resources Council said.

“Preliminary advice from Port of Brisbane is that they shipped 7.2 million tonnes of coal in 2014-15,” it added.

Earlier this year the state saw a spike in coal exports, which has since continued in form.

It comes as the Wiggins Island Coal Export Terminal also gets up and running, exporting first coal from its site in April.

QRC CEO Michael Roche said these results demonstrate coal’s continued importance to Queensland, and its support through royalties.

“Any shortfall in royalty revenue in next week’s State budget is not down to lack of export volumes, but rather due to the optimistic price forecasts in the December 2014 mid-year budget review published by the previous government,” Roche said.

“Our sector continues to provide one in every five jobs and one in every four dollars to the Queensland economy while supporting more than 17,000 businesses across the state.

“The latest record coal export figures are also an inconvenient outcome for the anti-coal activists who are constantly bleating about the end of coal.”

Queensland is not the only state to increase its exports.

New South Wales coal exports have continued to grow in the past financial year, indicating firm global demand for the commodity.

Coal Services found exports are up 5 per cent on FY14, from 127 million tonnes to 133 million tonnes in FY15.

The drop in export volume to China has been made up in other Asian countries, with Korea up 8 per cent, Taiwan up 21 per cent, and the rest of Asia (bar Japan and China) doubling their Australian imports to 15.6 million tonnes in the past nine months.

However, Japan remains NSW’s largest market, consuming 40 per cent of total coal exports.

Remaining export distribution included 18 per cent to China, 17 per cent to Korea, and 11 per cent to Taiwan.

Exports to India have also doubled in the past financial year, a mark of encouragement for the market according to the NSW Minerals Council.

NSW Minerals Council CEO Stephen Galilee said the ongoing export demand indicated solid long term prospects for the future of coal.

“Industry is doing the heavy lifting on production activity – but we are all subject to the vagaries of global commodity price setting,” Roche added.

And the prices themselves have seen a continued downwards trend.

Coking coal prices have dropped to new lows, bringing Australian suppliers down to sell for US$93 per tonne.

Such prices have not been seen since 2004, representing a 70 per cent fall from market highs of US$330 per tonne at the height of the boom in 2011.

The market environment has been put down to new supplies flooding the market combined with China’s lag in demand as a result of measures designed to reduce steel output.

[bolador] 08/7/2015 12:41

Piedro

Yes, the plan may work. I think that it is only possible for a small company to find great deals in a crash and here we are in coal anyway. We can see that Julian Treger has guts, now for some luck. Very interesting situation.

[piedro] 08/7/2015 12:06

"It will come from a dividend cut."
or selling more assets - they still have a few bits and pieces

Of course you are quite right QP
That's Julian Treger's job - he's got to wiggle the company out of a very awkward
situation

Another deal, another placing and the dilution would justify a dividend cut.

I sympathise with those who have averages above £1
This is not IMO a case for uncouth squabbling, or jeering.
Its complicated, but perhaps our man can pull it off - he does have 3% on the line

[neilyb675] 08/7/2015 10:52

QuePassa
8 Jul'15 - 09:42 - 7412 of 7413 0 1 (Filtered)
RCTurner2
8 Jul'15 - 10:13 - 7413 of 7413 0 1 (Filtered)

[rcturner2] 08/7/2015 10:13

It will come from a dividend cut.