Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:32

Gerald,

Indeed the export of LNG will be very significant for the development of Tanz as well eventually meeting the energy and gas demands of both the domestic and industrial consumer base that exists in Tanz between now and 2040. I guess that'll be funded a large part by Chinese money.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:30

JonnyT,

You've been proved wrong just recently as you suggest that Gussow's principle of oil migration only applied to deep basins. :) But at least you now agree that MetP and Wentworth do not have a monopoly on gas sales in Tanz at time and that gas and power demand is rapidly growing from both domestic and industrial customers. Perhaps that will apply to AEX and its jvp soon too if results warrant going down the development route.

Regards,
Ed.

[haggismchaggis] 02/3/2017 16:29

And one of these will pay for itself and be hugely profitable on a 10 years or more business plan. It could process all of the gas from N1 and N2, then be easily expanded to cover N3, Namisange and Sudi.http://www.geoilandgas.com/liquefied-natural-gas/gas-liquefaction/small-scale-lng-liquefaction-plant

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 16:27

Gerald

Funnily enough there is significant energy demands in Tanz regardless of the planned national LNG plant.

Whatever. Call me old fashioned, but I tend to think a $30 billion or more investment in an LNG plant would be quite positive for a $60 billion economy.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:24

Peter,

Well i'll just paraphrase for you along the lines of AEX et al won't have a market for gas before 2020. Now you're suggesting that they will but it will be small quantities. Don't break from party lines or it'll be off to the gulag for you. How small exactly and where are you getting your information from? Surely if the jvp decide to go ahead with development they'll require assurances from the Tanz government/industrial customers etc of more than "small quantities" before they engage in any development costing them millions. That is assuming that the developmental route is the one that they take at this point, again further speculation.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 02/3/2017 16:15

Ed, you have your opinion I have mine. My opinion is based on empirical evidence and to date I've been consistently correct around the demand outlook in Tanzania. It would actually be nice to be proved wrong for once.

Lets look again in 2018 and see who was right and not further clog up this board.

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 16:13

Oh there certainly is behind pipe potential from MetP et al, but they don't have exclusive rights to sell that gas, they'll have to compete for sales like any other supplier. Like JonnyT and you were assuming until very recently.

I've never suggested, or even assumed, any exclusive rights for M&P. Though ngms is clearly correct that they have a GSA to sell more gas than they currently can sell, and AEX is some way from that with regards to Ntorya. So when it comes to a competition, they are some way ahead at the moment - and since the GSAs are fixed price, and I'd expect and hope AEX didn't negotiate for less than the KN contract, there's not much else to compete on.

However, read my post, as I said I'm quite prepared to believe it's possible that TPDC will chose, for strategic reasons to take some additional gas from Ntorya sometime before 2020, rather than maxing out on M&P gas, and I've never argued otherwise. But it will be small quantities, and it's not where the real value creation in AEX lies in the next 3 or so years.

Peter

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:06

JonnyT,

I've tried that already. I'm fully aware that MetP and Wentworth have a GSA in place. I'm also fully aware they don't have a monopoly on gas sales in Tanz as suggested on here. I'm also fully aware that they intend to produce more gas to fulfil potential customers well before 2020, already read what you've posted on their website. But there is nothing in what you have posted to suggest that AEX and the jvp won't be in a position to do so. I'm sure they are hopeful of securing those customers too. Again as I've said time and time again, perhaps wait for the forward plans of the company you "hold" as you tend to run wild on speculation.

Regards,
Ed.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/3/2017 15:11

will look in again after next RNS when we have some actual facts to discuss.
no point in any more speculation.

[last throw] 02/3/2017 14:40

Edgein

Thanks for putting into pretty precise words your responses to baby and the other "usuals" - much appreciated as you definitely seem to have the "put-down" facts that make their arrogant and oh-so superior attitudes revealed for the agendas many believe they share!

Thanks again!

LT

[edgein] 02/3/2017 14:33

Don't put anything on here about a gas market or ye'll be lambasted as a lunatic by the cult. :)

Regards,
Ed.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 14:26

This is the rumour 1.5tcfGreat news LTH... I tried to snuff some news from Our friends Omani investors, but was almost impossible. After that I discussed the log file with few petrohysist and geologist who has great links to many staff worked in international oil and gas companies worked and associated with Tanzania and with latest RNS regarding NT2 drilling...the test result will come above all expectation...50 to 60 mcf a day with reserve above 1.5TCF and confirmation of hitting Likonde with big oil reserve...Comment I got from the mouth of the horse..geologist...it seems Likonda having great impact to NT2...how and what will cone soon.... A week before the NT2 last RNS, I posted a message on the board about high pressure and required mud...turned to be true.. Soon LTH will get the big reward. I also think Aminex might not need to drill NT3...instead of that will make the 40KM pipe to get the gas to the market..

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 14:21

Cove Energy's long-running takeover saga has finally come to an end after Thai state oil firm PTT Exploration & Production announced Friday that its $1.9 billion offer for the East Africa-focused firm had been declared wholly unconditional. PTTEP said that it had received valid acceptances from Cove shareholders in respect of more than 463 million shares. This represents approximately 94.3 percent of the existing share capital of the company – well in excess of the 75 percent required for it to takeover the company. Cove shareholders who have not yet accepted the offer were urged by PTTEP to do so without delay, said PTTEP in a statement. PTTEP has now made a request to the London Stock Exchange that Cove's share listing on the Alternative Investment Market is cancelled. Friday's announcement marked the end of a takeover battle for Cove that began in February with a $1.57 billion offer for Cove from Royal Dutch Shell. This immediately prompted PTTEP to emerge from the shadows with its own offer of $1.77 billion for Cove. Shell and PTTEP both believe that the Rovuma offshore basin in Mozambique, which Cove and its partner Anadarko are both exploring for significant reserves of natural gas, is suitable for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Cove holds an 8.5-percent interest in Rovuma, while it also has a 10-percent interest in onshore Mozambique where a 2D seismic program is currently underway. Shell was prepared to go as far as raising its offer to $1.8 billion during the takeover battle, but would not budge from this amount after PTTEP raised its offer to $1.9 billion in late May. However, Shell finally pulled out of the contest in mid-July when it stated it would no longer participate in the auction for Cove. PTTEP said back in February that it plans to use its extensive experience in building a natural gas-based economy for the benefit of Mozambique and will support the construction of a world-scale LNG facility in the country that makes use of the more than 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources available in the Rovuma basin. http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/120069/cove_energy_takeover_finally_over

[edgein] 02/3/2017 14:21

Tidy,

That's certainly a decent length of gas flare alright!

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 14:13

"I also partly agree with ngms that there is capacity behind pipe, not only from M&P but also from KN-1, and quite possibly Orca by then which would satisfy that."

Oh there certainly is behind pipe potential from MetP et al, but they don't have exclusive rights to sell that gas, they'll have to compete for sales like any other supplier. Like JonnyT and you were assuming until very recently.

"There will be other growth, cement factories, and other possible industrial uses, but that's not going to happen by end 2018."

Apparently there is a diesel fueled cement factory right beside Ntorya, that's before 2018.

"But that is a drop in the ocean stuff compared to what Ruvuma is likely to be capable of producing."

Yes but any near term development doesn't need to include all the potential of Ruvuma, nor even much of the potential at Ntorya. It could be as little as a two well development. But again the point has been made and there is going to be more discussed of greater relevance nearer term than the future gas sales of Ntorya.

Regards,
Ed.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 13:59

Flaring https://twitter.com/andy64570/status/837278774890795009

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 13:58

Do you not believe that those two gas to power plants will be completed in 2018

It's certainly something I'll only believe when I see it. I also partly agree with ngms that there is capacity behind pipe, not only from M&P but also from KN-1, and quite possibly Orca by then which would satisfy that. It's not impossible that if the plants are actually finished on time (not holding breath) that TPDC might want to take some gas from Ntorya, in the same way they took some demand from M&P to get KN-1 up and partly running - having multiple sources on tap is a good idea. But that is a drop in the ocean stuff compared to what Ruvuma is likely to be capable of producing.

There will be other growth, cement factories, and other possible industrial uses, but that's not going to happen by end 2018. Frankly I'm not sure AEX will even be around to supply gas on the sort scale Ruvuma will probably end up doing. Which is why I'm more interested in proving up the acreage as far as possible, and meeting licence conditions as far as possible to keep claim to the acreage with a little renegotiation cost as possible.

Regardless of funding 3 wells, after N-3, may not be realistic - I doubt they have 3 drill ready sites lined up, but I'd like to see any additional progress made that is possible. That's where the value can be grown, not in trying to sell perhaps 20mscfd sometime in 2018-2020. That may well happen in parallel - I'm certainly not saying it shouldn't, or it won't - but production is a side show as far as creating value goes in the next year.

Peter

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:56

Baby,

Sometimes its better to have lunatics running an asylum when the staff are clearly incompetent. :)

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:54

A bit like saying SOU won't be able to sell gas to Europe as Gazprom have got that covered. But hang on a minute Gazprom don't have exclusivity over gas sales agreements in Europe either. :)

Regards,
Ed

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:47

Ok JonnyT,

Lets be having the links to the exclusivity agreement for MetP and Wentworth on current and future gas sales agreements then. I guess you've seen it, how were the contract's for the gas from Songo Songo facilities arranged when MetP and Wentworth have a monopoly for Tanz gas?

Gerald

Funnily enough there is significant energy demands in Tanz regardless of the planned national LNG plant. Why are the chinese all over KIBO, NCCL and EDL? LNG related, nope.

Regards,
Ed.

[warbaby43] 02/3/2017 13:25

greyingsurfer, you are, I fear, banging your head against the proverbial, so I would be inclined to give up if I were you - lunatics/asylum etc.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 13:20

Funnily enough, the biggest boost to industrial activity in Tanzania will come when one of the mooted LNG plants is sanctioned.

[ngms27] 02/3/2017 13:16

Ed, yes those power plants will come on stream but they are going to be supplied by M&P/Wentworth NOT Ntorya gas. That demand was built into their GSA.