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[ngms27] 05/3/2017 16:06

It does seem I was wrong, this is from the Ruvuma update in 2014:The Likonde-1 well penetrated 97 metres of net sand with an average porosity of 17% within a 316 metre gross Lower Tertiary sand sequence with hydrocarbon shows and a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas.So it wasn't 250m in the Tertiary it was the Jurassic. I admit to getting this wrong.Note no mention of the Cretaceous though.This is using the latest seismic interpretation, the age of Ntorya-1 also changed at this point.The same RNS also states:The new interpretation has shown that an additional target exists for an appraisal well that would intersect the Ntorya gas and condensate sands encountered in Ntorya-1 and an extension of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found to have oil and gas shows in the earlier Likonde-1 well to the north. This additional target has further increased the recently announced resource potential from 1.9 to 2.3 Tcf (Pmean GIIP).So there's your Likonde tie in and this perfectly corresponds to the latest presentations clearly showing NT-3 tagging the Likonde Tertiary sands updip.

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 16:02

I enjoyed watching that NR presentation. I said several times over the last couple of weeks that 3D seismic is needed before N3 is drilled, due to 2D seismic not showing accuracy when L1, N1 and N2 were drilled, as they didn't hit what they were expecting at either well. Now NR says in his presentation that using 2D seismic at 2x2 is difficult and "the early advent of some 3D data" is something he will be pushing for. So that proves my theory right. I presume he'll be pushing for the 3D seismic ahead of the next well, be that N3 or something else in Ruvuma. Most likely N3 based on the 'oil play' he's mentioned, but the N3 location might change after 3D seismic. N3 has not been decided on yet.30m of net pay at N2 from 51m gross sands. Excellent porosity. High pressure. Gas influx was significant.N2 sand system is bounded on all sides, multiple TCF potential within the bounded areas, possibly another hint that the N2 find is huge.Same channel system in N2 as in N1.Trace black oil on cuttings from N2.Large unsatisfied domestic demand for Natural Gas is estimated at 500 mmscfd."And is there yet an elusive oil play to discover?" "Well continue to consider that, it's certainly not in my mind a deep offshore play, it's a near shore and onshore play, and we seem to be getting the indications, both at Kiliwani North, at Ntorya, that it is a real possibility that there is still yet a play in the er.... We'll that's probably enough!! There's a play in oil!!" Again backing a theory I posted last or the week before, that oil may become a target of N3/Namisange, as in, AEX will start mentioning oil potential again prior to the next well.hTTp://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4v

[blackgold00] 05/3/2017 15:44

ngms, "Likonde 1 encountered no sands in the Cretaceous."

well they stated here that the Likonde well encountered high quality Basal Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sands.

NTORYA-1 Well Starts Drilling



"Ntorya-1 is located 14 kilometres south of the Likonde-1 well, drilled in 2010, which proved the presence of an active petroleum system. The Ntorya-1 well targets the same high quality Basal Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous sands encountered in the Likonde-1 well."

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 13:52

Likonde 1 encountered no sands in the Cretaceous. It encountered 250m of excellent quality sands in the Tertiary and then drilled through the Cretaceous and into the Jurassic where it got the gas kick.What aren't you getting?

[greyingsurfer] 05/3/2017 13:52

Did he out his foot in it? Or did he just sow the seeds of speculation and hyperbole?

I suspect he was just bigging up what's been known for a long time - there is clearly the possibility of oil somewhere onshore Tanzania. Mike Rego's view some time back (which I'd give far more credit to than Ritson - he knows what he's talking about) was that it might be found further west, but he certainly didn't see it as a high probability on AEX's acreage. I can't see anything much has changed since then - unless the testing has produced more than the traces of oil found in the drill waste at N-1 and N-2.

Hitting commercial oil would, of course, be very welcome and a game changer - if it was in more than small quantities. But I think it's pretty clear that while that remains a possibility it's not what the story is about in Ruvuma - at least at present.

As for Ritsons "stopping himself" it sounded to me as though he got stuck for anything meaningful to say about oil in Ruvuma and tried to hide it by implying he shouldn't say more!

Peter

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 13:42

He obviously stated it as they keep seeing evidence of it in the cuttings. He is saying the field is not one dimensional and the gas generation is live.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 13:39

Fools. You do realise the pipeline is already constructed....!Built and funded by China. This has been pointed out to you numerous times now. NR even mentioned this in his last presentation

[stinkypeet] 05/3/2017 12:40

Did he out his foot in it? Or did he just sow the seeds of speculation and hyperbole? I suspect that the "Oil play" may well, at best, be a long way off or just as likely purely an indication of a future possibilities that might arise; maybe after a reconsidered NT3 or potentially Likonde.

The Oil play will only be revealed as a result of the new "Basin Model"..... So anything that NR said on the 23rd Feb was purely hypothetical

[edgar222] 05/3/2017 12:01

Thanks Tidy

Re-posting link you put on here to Neil Ritson's presentation.

He thinks there is oil and stops himself speaking at the end cos he has gone too far!

Also interesting on future demand and the market growth

hxxp://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4v

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 09:20

My take (but what do I know) is that at NT-3 the secondary target is in the tertiary sands and they overlap at this location as an updip to the main Likonde sand complex. The speculation/hope is that in the LOWER sand channels at Likonde which look sporadic the hydrocarbons are connected to the Ntorya sands. This is obviously speculation/hope but what "IF". ;)

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 08:50

I can see where you are all going wrong. You are referring to the old seismic model.It got updated since the presentation you are referring to, look at the last two, this is where NT-2 becomes NT-3 etc.

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 08:26

Blackgold, nope you are wrong. Look at the slide and you can see the secondary targets approx 400bcf in the tertiary. They are the Likonde sands.They aren't connected in the Cretaceous

[tmmalik] 05/3/2017 07:26

Heard some whisper ,management thinking to start N-3 as they are more optimistic about oil after initial results

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 05:08

Listen to NR here on Ntorya since striking at N2http://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4vPay attention to his last words before it cuts off. "That'll do errr yeah I'll leave it their, their is oil." Gotta love this guy lol.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 19:47

www.mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/21.09.2016NGUMP-DRAFT-FINAL-REPORT-May-2016-CLEAN.pdf

Page 59

Have another look. Mtwara to Njombe. Right through the well site..

[tidy 2] 04/3/2017 18:26

F&CThat national gas pipeline is already in place. Passes through Ntorya from dar to Mtwara.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 17:33

hxxps://mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/21.09.2016NGUMP-DRAFT-FINAL-REPORT-May-2016-CLEAN.pdf

Page 59. The pic of proposed gas pipe route...through the Ntorya well site.

Interesting.

Obviously the gas demand is not there yet but imo AEX will be sold by then.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 17:21

How do you upload a pic to the thread? might have one of interest..

[greatfull dead] 04/3/2017 14:19

Steel,

Nice one Amigo.

ATB,
GD

[stinkypeet] 04/3/2017 13:55

I strongly suspect that both Wentworth, M&P and AEX will supply Dangote to some degree... similarly with Kinyerezi 1 & 2 next year....