Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 22:41

stick your other glasses on for peat sake, what do you think, any thing like 75% of 100mmscfpd would be worth? even if it wasn't untill 5 years time. No one is arguing that large scale production when it happens will not be valuable. The argument is about how soon it will happen. In 5 years? If you are talking about five years, then yes, possibly.Peter

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 22:33

Haggis,Can you give us a link to a modular LNG plant costing 10s of £m, and commisionable within 2-3 years?Peter

[blackgold00] 02/3/2017 19:25

ngms, "I'm with Peter if NT-2 is all it's cracked up to be with 500 BCF then meaningful production from these sands must be 100mmscfpd (Not from a single well) and it's years away"

ngms , stick your other glasses on for peat sake, what do you think, any thing like 75% of 100mmscfpd would be worth? even if it wasn't untill 5 years time. ngms you know i know, Aminex and the ARA Petroleum division of Zubai know, there is such a big potential here.

[ngms27] 02/3/2017 18:22

Don't be fooled by the use of production testing. Most DSTs these days use a production string.

The whole purpose of testing for longer than a few hours to get samples is to examine well deliverability for production / development planning purposes. It doesn't mean production is imminent.

I'm with Peter if NT-2 is all it's cracked up to be with 500 BCF then meaningful production from these sands must be 100mmscfpd (Not from a single well) and it's years away.

Basic chicken and egg stuff.

Forget Ntorya gas going to LNG, it won't happen as the offshore boys are planning to fund this with FID later this year, they aren't going to let in some immaterial gas onshore when they have 75TCF offshore thats stranded without LNG. It's also official Government policy for onshore gas to be used for domestic consumption.

Another point if indeed Kibo et all are being lined up for power generation this infers less forward demand for gas does it not.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 17:58

Kilwani already to market giving $900k per month on 50% restricted flow. Flowed at 40 scuffs per dayN1 from 10.5 foot perf gave 20 scuffs per day. N2 has 90 foot of net pay and higher than expected pressures and net pay. Massive upside and gone straight to production testing.

[greatfull dead] 02/3/2017 17:34

thegreatgeraldo,

As you posted yesterday you think electric power can be provided on a smaller scale basis using temporary gas fired generators,I fully agree with you.

I still say a power station with the necessarily feed engineering requirements can be obtained from a gas fired power station design company off their own data base and modified very quickly. For material procurement this can also be fast tracked by an engineering consultancy that specializes in doing so for their clients. May cost a % more but it is feasible. The actual building of the power station would not cost as much from a manpower point view. Due to the huge lay offs of highly skilled construction engineers of all engineering disciplines of Oil and Gas company staff and contract staff worldwide, especially here in the UK. The reason is because of what Saudi Arabia did by oversupply of crude oil, which hopefully does not happen again for at least another 10 years+
,
ATB,
GD

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 17:24

bg00 - of course Tanzania will benefit from LNG exports, before that happens, don't you think building the LNG plant will give a boost to the economy?

[haggismchaggis] 02/3/2017 17:15

If N1 + N2 + N3 is into 150mmscfd or more, and the 'experts' on here claim there won't be a market for that much gas before 2020, there is a huge business case for the TPDC to ask China to install a modular LNG plant like the one I posted a link to, an LNG plant that can process 150mmscfd or whatever amount of gas the 3 N's are producing. TPDC pay AEX for the gas at wellhead price, China pays TPDC for the LNG and does its own logistics. Simple.

[blackgold00] 02/3/2017 16:57

gerald, "Stuff the export of LNG,"

gerald, don't you think that Tanzania would have a $$$$$$ cut of that export? tax revenue of sorts.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 16:54

Building an LNG plant (or two, or 3) would do wonders for the economy... great news if you happen to own a cement factory!

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:43

That's some attitude! There's around 53Tcf of the stuff to be produced and if all goes well in the not too distant future perhaps up to 55 or even 56Tcf! :) Yup most likely.

Regards,
Ed.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 16:37

Stuff the export of LNG, I was referring to the stimulus building the LNG plant would provide. LNG plant rather likely to be funded by the majors who own the gas.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:32

Gerald,

Indeed the export of LNG will be very significant for the development of Tanz as well eventually meeting the energy and gas demands of both the domestic and industrial consumer base that exists in Tanz between now and 2040. I guess that'll be funded a large part by Chinese money.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:30

JonnyT,

You've been proved wrong just recently as you suggest that Gussow's principle of oil migration only applied to deep basins. :) But at least you now agree that MetP and Wentworth do not have a monopoly on gas sales in Tanz at time and that gas and power demand is rapidly growing from both domestic and industrial customers. Perhaps that will apply to AEX and its jvp soon too if results warrant going down the development route.

Regards,
Ed.

[haggismchaggis] 02/3/2017 16:29

And one of these will pay for itself and be hugely profitable on a 10 years or more business plan. It could process all of the gas from N1 and N2, then be easily expanded to cover N3, Namisange and Sudi.http://www.geoilandgas.com/liquefied-natural-gas/gas-liquefaction/small-scale-lng-liquefaction-plant

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 16:27

Gerald

Funnily enough there is significant energy demands in Tanz regardless of the planned national LNG plant.

Whatever. Call me old fashioned, but I tend to think a $30 billion or more investment in an LNG plant would be quite positive for a $60 billion economy.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:24

Peter,

Well i'll just paraphrase for you along the lines of AEX et al won't have a market for gas before 2020. Now you're suggesting that they will but it will be small quantities. Don't break from party lines or it'll be off to the gulag for you. How small exactly and where are you getting your information from? Surely if the jvp decide to go ahead with development they'll require assurances from the Tanz government/industrial customers etc of more than "small quantities" before they engage in any development costing them millions. That is assuming that the developmental route is the one that they take at this point, again further speculation.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 02/3/2017 16:15

Ed, you have your opinion I have mine. My opinion is based on empirical evidence and to date I've been consistently correct around the demand outlook in Tanzania. It would actually be nice to be proved wrong for once.

Lets look again in 2018 and see who was right and not further clog up this board.

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 16:13

Oh there certainly is behind pipe potential from MetP et al, but they don't have exclusive rights to sell that gas, they'll have to compete for sales like any other supplier. Like JonnyT and you were assuming until very recently.

I've never suggested, or even assumed, any exclusive rights for M&P. Though ngms is clearly correct that they have a GSA to sell more gas than they currently can sell, and AEX is some way from that with regards to Ntorya. So when it comes to a competition, they are some way ahead at the moment - and since the GSAs are fixed price, and I'd expect and hope AEX didn't negotiate for less than the KN contract, there's not much else to compete on.

However, read my post, as I said I'm quite prepared to believe it's possible that TPDC will chose, for strategic reasons to take some additional gas from Ntorya sometime before 2020, rather than maxing out on M&P gas, and I've never argued otherwise. But it will be small quantities, and it's not where the real value creation in AEX lies in the next 3 or so years.

Peter

[edgein] 02/3/2017 16:06

JonnyT,

I've tried that already. I'm fully aware that MetP and Wentworth have a GSA in place. I'm also fully aware they don't have a monopoly on gas sales in Tanz as suggested on here. I'm also fully aware that they intend to produce more gas to fulfil potential customers well before 2020, already read what you've posted on their website. But there is nothing in what you have posted to suggest that AEX and the jvp won't be in a position to do so. I'm sure they are hopeful of securing those customers too. Again as I've said time and time again, perhaps wait for the forward plans of the company you "hold" as you tend to run wild on speculation.

Regards,
Ed.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/3/2017 15:11

will look in again after next RNS when we have some actual facts to discuss.
no point in any more speculation.