Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 21:49

greyingsurfer, that's not the point. The point is that the prices of $15k to £25k per square kilometre ARE in the presentation, and that gives us the ability to price a 4 square kilometre 3D survey of N3 prior to drilling there. What he said obviously has nothing to do with that, I never said it did, I was merely pointing out how much it would cost us to get decent 3D seismic over N3, which is something I (and NR?) expect to see as the next step.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 21:48

Have we intercepted both Ntorya and Linkonde with N2Sept 11th 2014 RNSRuvuma OPERATIONAL UPDATE Aminex today announces that interpretation of the newly acquired seismic data has extended the potential of the Ntorya appraisal area, and management has further increased its resource estimate to 2.3 TCF (Pmean GIIP) by combining the Ntorya discovery with the adjacent Likonde prospect in its Ruvuma PSC in south-eastern Tanzania. The new interpretation has shown that an additional target exists for an appraisal well that would intersect the Ntorya gas and condensate sands encountered in Ntorya-1 and an extension of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found to have oil and gas shows in the earlier Likonde-1 well to the north. This additional target has further increased the recently announced resource potential from 1.9 to 2.3 Tcf (Pmean GIIP). The Likonde-1 well penetrated 97 metres of net sand with an average porosity of 17% within a 316 metre gross Lower Tertiary sand sequence with hydrocarbon shows and a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas. The new seismic interpretation, using the recently acquired higher quality 2D seismic data, shows that the Likonde prospect comprises two distinct channel sands of which the southern channel extends over the mapped Ntorya Cretaceous gas sand. Ntorya-1, drilled in 2012, did not encounter this Likonde Tertiary sand channel, which lies just north of the well, but discovered a deeper Cretaceous gas sand that tested 20MMcfd with 139 barrels of associated condensate.

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 21:44

Foolsandcows, there's oil at N2, so it's likely there's oil at N3 and/or Namisange. Sudi is a separate possibility, part of a different finger of the fan.N3 and Namisange are estimated as huge gas plays, but if they hold oil then then that's going to be a lot of oil potential.

[greyingsurfer] 05/3/2017 21:41

He covers 3D seismic, and there's a table showing prices that indicate we could get 4km sq of 3D seismic over N3 for just $60k to $100k, which seems like a no-brainer to me to ensure precise targeting of the best spots to drill.

The slide, and what Mike Rego says about it is mainly there to show the disparity between onshore and offshore seismic and drilling costs. The key point being that onshore 3d costs 10x as much as 2d, whereas onshore drilling can be 5 or so times cheaper than offshore - which is why he makes the standard argument that it has normally made sense onshore to do 2d and drill, whereas the extra cost of 3d offshore is relatively small, and drilling cost is much larger, so using 3d makes sense.

Perhaps there are technical changes that have taken place that change that balance - but he is certainly not saying that in his talk.

Peter

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 20:23

Tidy 2, I've spotted nothing, I've known about this for years literally.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 20:03

Oil is a nice to have but for relative immediate monetisation gas is the rock star. The entire Ruvuma province is charged to the hilt. 90% of drills have struck net pay with impressive quantities.

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 19:52

hxxps://labs.weatherford.com/oiltracers/geochemistry-for-exploration/down-dip-oil-prediction#

Maybe the oil is down-dip at Sudi and where 3D is required...possibly suggested by the level of condensate.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 19:19

39bn to 78bn barrels of locked in oil. All pushed to onshore. Blown away at those figures and he states "conservative"

[oilandgas1] 05/3/2017 19:04

A quick thanks for all the quality postings over the weekend ... listing my knowledge wrt AEX!

Ruvuma Ntorya-2 gas flow tests & petrophysical analysis- A great few days ahead with news on gas ( and oil maybe ) between Monday 6th and wed 15th for NT2.

Also someone mentioned that AEX will be joining the small cap index by 20th of march.

I also look forward to some new gas customers, a plan for Ntorya-3 drilling and agreed commercial rates for gas.

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 18:19

I said last week the oil was quite possibly in N3, if not there then Namisange. Thanks Mike Rego for confirming that theory, and for giving some idea of the amount of oil that could be lurking in AEX's acreage.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 18:00

Super field in the making imo.

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 17:56

And Aminex have the updip acreage. Lovely!

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 17:55

Haggis nice posting. Thank you.

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 17:31

Mike Rego, around 30m into the presentation he starts talking about Likonde possibly having a 'liquid rim', he then goes on to say it will be interesting to see when N2 is tested, to see the condensate levels, as this could further demonstrate the 'liquid rim' theory which would be "good news" for the oil story.His calculations show potential for 39.38bn barrels of oil migrated from the offshore, if only 10% of the jurassic source oil is trapped.For the permo-trias his estimate is 78bn barrels of oil trapped, which is 10% of the hydrocarbons expelled by the gas in the offshore traps.He says the above figures are conservative!!!!He says "what happened to this 78bn barrels of oil". He shows that the oil would have migrated from trap to trap in the channel fan system that the offshore and Ruvuma are part of, to the near shore and onshore.

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 17:15

NT-2 was drilled as it was deemed a bounded trap in its own right. I'm sure they did it for good reason.. ;)

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 17:10

NR in his presentation, when he mentions the oil he then refers to Mike Rego's earlier presentation at the same event.The links below are for Mike Rego's presentation, it's all about finding the elusive East Africa oil.The early part of the presentation covers East Africa. Further on he covers the issues with 2D seismic, the kind of issues that have shown up at L1, N1 and N2. He covers 3D seismic, and there's a table showing prices that indicate we could get 4km sq of 3D seismic over N3 for just $60k to $100k, which seems like a no-brainer to me to ensure precise targeting of the best spots to drill.He says 5 people in that room met last year to look at finding the oil, my money would be on NR being one of those 5.Many wells in the area have oil shows, there are also oil seeps etc. "There's clearly oil along the margins". "There's a lot of oil sloshing around". Good evidence for two families of oil, based on biomarkers and isotope ratios. Lower to basal middle jurassic, permo-trias is the other. No evidence so far that there's a Cretaceous oil presence. (so where did N2 get oil if it's hit the Cretaceous?? http://www.findingpetroleum.com/video/PetroMall-Ltd/Mike-Rego/1777.aspxhttp://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Mike%20Rego_Rego%20Exploration%20Ltd.m4v

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 17:06

Ngm Well done you spotted it. I did post the link for the RNS about intersecting Linkonde with a Ntorya appraisal. Explains why N3 became the new N2 I suppose.

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 17:05

Ngms the language of the recent RNS also suggests the connection but to what extent we will "imminently" find out. What do you make of the phase 1 pipeline from Mtwara to Njombe. Right through the well site..


www.mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/21.09.2016NGUMP-DRAFT-FINAL-REPORT-May-2016-CLEAN.pdf

PDF Page 59

Also btw..Oil is going to be on the radar. Positive!

[greyingsurfer] 05/3/2017 16:56

Haggis,I listened to Ritson and said what I thought of it in my post. Interpret him how you want. I've been clear on my viewSPCertainly, Namisange looks like the best oil prospect on the licences. At present I'm not rating the prospect highly. Gas seems a lot more likely, and possibly a lot of it. That will do for me!Peter

[greatfull dead] 05/3/2017 16:32

Watch out for an early RNS! I can live in hope, can I not?

GLA,
GD

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 16:16

Pete, read my post at 16:06, I've transcribed what NR says about oil. He clearly believes it's there and so do I. The next logical place to look for oil, based on Gussow's theory, is up-dip around N3, following 3D seismic.

[stinkypeet] 05/3/2017 16:09

Peter, you said that Oil is an inlikely prospect on AEX's acreage - yes, I think that might be right for the "Appraisal" acreage but far more likelihood in tha "Exploration" area methinks - Namisange in particular. That was certainy the feeling expressed by some BOD members at the last AGM....

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 16:06

It does seem I was wrong, this is from the Ruvuma update in 2014:The Likonde-1 well penetrated 97 metres of net sand with an average porosity of 17% within a 316 metre gross Lower Tertiary sand sequence with hydrocarbon shows and a deeper Jurassic zone, containing 250 metres of stacked sandstones with extensive oil and gas shows. The deeper sandstones were not logged at the time, as the well was prematurely terminated in the deepest objective at 3,647 metres due to the influx of high pressure gas.So it wasn't 250m in the Tertiary it was the Jurassic. I admit to getting this wrong.Note no mention of the Cretaceous though.This is using the latest seismic interpretation, the age of Ntorya-1 also changed at this point.The same RNS also states:The new interpretation has shown that an additional target exists for an appraisal well that would intersect the Ntorya gas and condensate sands encountered in Ntorya-1 and an extension of the Lower Tertiary sands that were found to have oil and gas shows in the earlier Likonde-1 well to the north. This additional target has further increased the recently announced resource potential from 1.9 to 2.3 Tcf (Pmean GIIP).So there's your Likonde tie in and this perfectly corresponds to the latest presentations clearly showing NT-3 tagging the Likonde Tertiary sands updip.

[haggismchaggis] 05/3/2017 16:02

I enjoyed watching that NR presentation. I said several times over the last couple of weeks that 3D seismic is needed before N3 is drilled, due to 2D seismic not showing accuracy when L1, N1 and N2 were drilled, as they didn't hit what they were expecting at either well. Now NR says in his presentation that using 2D seismic at 2x2 is difficult and "the early advent of some 3D data" is something he will be pushing for. So that proves my theory right. I presume he'll be pushing for the 3D seismic ahead of the next well, be that N3 or something else in Ruvuma. Most likely N3 based on the 'oil play' he's mentioned, but the N3 location might change after 3D seismic. N3 has not been decided on yet.30m of net pay at N2 from 51m gross sands. Excellent porosity. High pressure. Gas influx was significant.N2 sand system is bounded on all sides, multiple TCF potential within the bounded areas, possibly another hint that the N2 find is huge.Same channel system in N2 as in N1.Trace black oil on cuttings from N2.Large unsatisfied domestic demand for Natural Gas is estimated at 500 mmscfd."And is there yet an elusive oil play to discover?" "Well continue to consider that, it's certainly not in my mind a deep offshore play, it's a near shore and onshore play, and we seem to be getting the indications, both at Kiliwani North, at Ntorya, that it is a real possibility that there is still yet a play in the er.... We'll that's probably enough!! There's a play in oil!!" Again backing a theory I posted last or the week before, that oil may become a target of N3/Namisange, as in, AEX will start mentioning oil potential again prior to the next well.hTTp://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4v