Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 13:42

He obviously stated it as they keep seeing evidence of it in the cuttings. He is saying the field is not one dimensional and the gas generation is live.

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 13:39

Fools. You do realise the pipeline is already constructed....!Built and funded by China. This has been pointed out to you numerous times now. NR even mentioned this in his last presentation

[stinkypeet] 05/3/2017 12:40

Did he out his foot in it? Or did he just sow the seeds of speculation and hyperbole? I suspect that the "Oil play" may well, at best, be a long way off or just as likely purely an indication of a future possibilities that might arise; maybe after a reconsidered NT3 or potentially Likonde.

The Oil play will only be revealed as a result of the new "Basin Model"..... So anything that NR said on the 23rd Feb was purely hypothetical

[edgar222] 05/3/2017 12:01

Thanks Tidy

Re-posting link you put on here to Neil Ritson's presentation.

He thinks there is oil and stops himself speaking at the end cos he has gone too far!

Also interesting on future demand and the market growth

hxxp://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4v

[foolsandcows] 05/3/2017 09:20

My take (but what do I know) is that at NT-3 the secondary target is in the tertiary sands and they overlap at this location as an updip to the main Likonde sand complex. The speculation/hope is that in the LOWER sand channels at Likonde which look sporadic the hydrocarbons are connected to the Ntorya sands. This is obviously speculation/hope but what "IF". ;)

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 08:50

I can see where you are all going wrong. You are referring to the old seismic model.It got updated since the presentation you are referring to, look at the last two, this is where NT-2 becomes NT-3 etc.

[ngms27] 05/3/2017 08:26

Blackgold, nope you are wrong. Look at the slide and you can see the secondary targets approx 400bcf in the tertiary. They are the Likonde sands.They aren't connected in the Cretaceous

[tmmalik] 05/3/2017 07:26

Heard some whisper ,management thinking to start N-3 as they are more optimistic about oil after initial results

[tidy 2] 05/3/2017 05:08

Listen to NR here on Ntorya since striking at N2http://237880a850b57f720dfd-816ef7f212e42c7f99df6030f7ad3efa.r22.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2023.02.2017%20Neil%20Ritson_Solo%20Oil_v2.m4vPay attention to his last words before it cuts off. "That'll do errr yeah I'll leave it their, their is oil." Gotta love this guy lol.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 19:47

www.mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/21.09.2016NGUMP-DRAFT-FINAL-REPORT-May-2016-CLEAN.pdf

Page 59

Have another look. Mtwara to Njombe. Right through the well site..

[tidy 2] 04/3/2017 18:26

F&CThat national gas pipeline is already in place. Passes through Ntorya from dar to Mtwara.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 17:33

hxxps://mem.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/21.09.2016NGUMP-DRAFT-FINAL-REPORT-May-2016-CLEAN.pdf

Page 59. The pic of proposed gas pipe route...through the Ntorya well site.

Interesting.

Obviously the gas demand is not there yet but imo AEX will be sold by then.

[foolsandcows] 04/3/2017 17:21

How do you upload a pic to the thread? might have one of interest..

[greatfull dead] 04/3/2017 14:19

Steel,

Nice one Amigo.

ATB,
GD

[stinkypeet] 04/3/2017 13:55

I strongly suspect that both Wentworth, M&P and AEX will supply Dangote to some degree... similarly with Kinyerezi 1 & 2 next year....

[captain james t kirk] 04/3/2017 13:27

greyingsurfer
Good, concise summary last night.

[steelwatch] 04/3/2017 12:34

tidy - thanks again. Found that too:



edit: see Table 7.1 on page 45 as numbered on the actual "paper" doc, or 63 according to my pdf reader.

"Timing and gas volumes (BCF per year) allocation for strategic project"

[tidy 2] 04/3/2017 12:13

Posted today on lse FYI Cluelessss 141 postsDemand forecastI did some more digging found a report completed by the United republic of Tanzania. "Natural Gas Utilisation Master Plan 2016 - 2045" It is great reading. Contains detail at multiple levels. What is interesting is Gas forms cornerstone of economic development plans. I will caveat this with the usual contains assumptions etc but broadly speaking this lays out a position of where they see their future in relation to gas consumption. Demand-side forecasts ; 2017 - 161.3 Bcf P.A 2027 - 1137 Bcf P.A 2037 - 1560 Bcf P.A So in 20 years, gas usage p.a will be ten-fold. Cumulative consumption between 2016 & 2045 is 33.3 tcf. Allocation by strategic project include. - electricitity: 8.8tcf - Lng: 11.1tcf - industries: 3.6tcf - iron & steel: 1.1tcf - methanol: 1.1tcf There is also, household use; CNGV; ferteliser; DME; MGT and other export. Supply side: Recoverable reserves quoted at 38.6 tcf. Now we know that much of these recoverable reserves is offshore, which will take longer and cost more to put into production - so a clear short-term bottleneck. Other bottlenecks include processing facilities which require investment. Concluding remarks - in my view, this is why this project is so desirable - the Tanzanian government need to get *any and as much* onshore recoverable gas online and out of the ground asap so they are prepared to meet the short-term forecasted future demand needs which are set to increase significantly, based on their documented deveolpment plans. In layman terms - if we have loads & loads of gas and we can get it out of the ground quickly and into the mainline this makes this will make this company very valuable indeed.

[steelwatch] 04/3/2017 11:55

Thanks tidy. I'll look for Beaufort's research first.