Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 04/3/2017 08:52

Haggis whilst I can see a naive interpretation to the situation this really isn't how the real world works. By all means deferments and delays can be negotiated however these are generally accommodated in line with market conditions and secondly relationships. The fact that the acreage may be more valuable now would mean that all parties would want to extract that value as soon as possible. I think aex mgt have done s good job to date to manage this situation but this will be unlikely to continue especially on the terms you describe and probably more importantly it simply isn't the most value enhancing proposition for aex!!
Out if interest what is your background in e&p?

[haggismchaggis] 04/3/2017 08:48

ngms, ROTFLMAO at that, another of your typical Mr Knowitall-Nothing comments that prove nothing, posted because I've successfully used your own claims to show how you can't have it both ways, and you have no valid arguments against what I have demonstrated, showing that simple logic is often the winner. Why can't you accept simple logic? I have no idea, perhaps the result doesn't suit your agenda, but what does? Only what you say, that would be my best guess.Filter me all you like, do you really think you're that important an audience member to me? I'll keep responding to your Mr Knowitall-Nothing claims. I've proven you wrong with verifiable facts several times in the past few weeks, I'm certain I will have to keep doing that, for the benefit of everyone else that's interested in AEX, whether you like it or not.

[ngms27] 04/3/2017 00:58

Yes we can. Haggis you are way off the mark. So much so I think the filter maybe applied, which would only be my fourth filter in 18 years.

[haggismchaggis] 04/3/2017 00:04

steelwatch, further to what greyingsurfer has advised, my view is that if N2 is as big and productive as many think (the share price rise since the N2 announcement is the primary indicator of that, not posts on BB's), then the Tanzania Government will have no issues with extending the drilling requirement timelines with no penalties. The point in case would be (based on the claims of several posters on here) that if N2 was connected to the pipeline there is no current market for that much gas, let alone the gas from Kiliwani and the other producers, so the Tanzania Government has no urgent need for AEX to do further drilling.Tanzania would (if posters on here are to be believed) have enough gas behind the pipe to cover it for a couple of years of growth as a minimum, therefore there is no reason to penalise AEX for its great success with N1 and N2, just defer drilling requirements to 2018/2019, connect N2 to the main pipeline so that big power/cement/fertiliser projects can get under way, leaving AEX to drill subsequent wells to prove up more resources at its own pace.The posters I refer to above, they can't have it both ways! :-D

[skinwalker] 03/3/2017 23:22

Thank-you greyingsurfer.

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 22:30

steelwatch, the acreage is also increasingly prospective for oil. The first well Likonde-1 had oil shows, the second well Ntorya-1 was up-dip from that and had oil shows, the latest well Ntorya-2 was further up-dip and has oil shows (waiting on the full well results to see if they are more significant oil shows than the other wells, and/or linked by the oil biomarkers). Google search for 'oil seeps Tanzania' and you'll see several oil seeps, and belief that there are two separate sources (different age) of oil in the area AEX are drilling. Look at Gussow's theory, it says water, then oil, then gas, flow up-dip in that sequence due to the gas pressures and the development of the hydrocarbons over time. So the oil might be located at the next up-dip target, Ntorya-3, or further up-dip at Namisange. I am a firm believer a large oil reservoir will be found in one of those locations. Worst case scenario for now is we find TCF of gas instead, not a bad consolation prize.

[berber1] 03/3/2017 21:41

Peter, I believe that AEX are hopping to attract a major oil company, and farm-out so they can progress with the drilling( May be a major Chinese company) . AEX have been in Tanzania for a very long time and have a strong link with the Tanzanian authorities, further more they have strong backing from the middle eastern company which hold 29% of AEX shares.
AEX are probably going for production because Tanzanian authorities have gave them the go ahead as top priority and therefore will give them another extension for the drilling of the three wells.

[lfdkmp] 03/3/2017 21:04

Peter

An excellent few paragraphs' synopsis.

[greyingsurfer] 03/3/2017 20:49

so can someone place this in context of ongoing debate

Ntorya 1&2 appear to have significant prospective resources. N-2 seems to have come in better than expected, and so larger than the table shows, but we await the test results. N-3 might well add considerably to that - and there are other prospects on the licences than have large potential.

The gas trunk pipeline runs through the acreage, so, potentially, those significant prospective amounts of gas can be monetised easily.

However, there are two principal issues. Firstly, AEX is required by its current, already extended, licence to drill 4 exploration wells in 2017. None drilled so far (N-2 was an appraisal) N-3 will be the first. Secondly, there is no obvious short term market for the gas that these fields could produce.

No one is arguing there is no medium or long term market, but the short term is highly contentious! Some people are very relaxed about another licence extension, others less so, and are concerned at possible loss of prospective acreage - or other forms of cost. There is some significance to all this, as the company may make a decision to concentrate on early production, or to raise funds to try to drill as many exploration wells as possible this year. The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but depending on your views one or the other may be more attractive.

Peter

[patersdw] 03/3/2017 20:48

Current market lead times on basic cryo components is ca 26 weeks. Con trolley valves 30 weeks, plate fin exchangers 12-15 months. Expander set 2 years. Just commenting.

[wolansm] 03/3/2017 19:41

Steel watchTwo guys on this thread can help you Datit and the Pri#£ only problem is they work city hours so might be a bit tardy getting back.......

[steelwatch] 03/3/2017 19:12

New here, so can someone place this in context of ongoing debate:

[lfdkmp] 03/3/2017 19:11

With his constant drip-drip, I wonder if ngms has considered a career in counterintelligence?

Will eventually wear down the most resilient opponent. :-)

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/3/2017 18:56

A pleasant change to see somebody talking sense on this board...

[tournesol] 03/3/2017 18:45

As I understand it the perforations which were used for testing were bought from a holesaler and were delivered in a fleet of LNG trucks. Unfortunately some of the packaging was deficient and there was significant leakage of perforations from the cargo. These have contaminated the trucks and consequently the vehicles can no longer be used to transport gas.

A feasibility study is underway to determine whether the spilled perforations can be recovered and re-purposed. It has been suggested that they could be graded. The smallest ones could be sold to the manufacturers of tea bags, the medium ones sold for use im polo mints and the largest ones being recycled in the doughnut industry.

Any which fall outside the rigorous specifications of these three uses could be disolved in water to produce holy water and sold on to local religious bodies.

Any water produced from the well in the course of testing will be tested to determine how holey it is and used to kickstart the alternative uses outlined above.

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 18:43

ngms, not in lngcontainer. Have you not read it?

[tidy 2] 03/3/2017 17:46

18mins in. 3D. Dangote cement mentioned. Huge field. Early production and high pressures and associated flows.

[ngms27] 03/3/2017 17:12

Haggis, you do know LNG has to be used within around 5 days if shipped by truck?

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 16:55

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas transportation, storage and direct usage containersGAS OUTLET DIRECT FROM THE UNIT WITHOUT ADDITIONAL REGASIFICATION SYSTEMREAL TIME MONITORED AND STEERED UNITSOPTIMIZED CARGO CAPACITY IN STANDARD ISO CONTAINERShttp://www.lngtainer.com

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 16:53

LNG to neighbouring countries, made easy.http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/105572-containerized-lng-proposed-for-british-columbia

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 16:45

Says who? You :-D :-D :-D :-D I've not seen that stated by either the following and until I do I won't be writing it off:AEXSOLOTPDCMinister for EnergyPrime Minister

[haggismchaggis] 03/3/2017 16:07

From the Tanzania power plan:Available data shows that out of about 700,000 vehicles registered from 2004 to 2014, sixty percent (60%) use petrol as fuel. These vehicles are potential candidates for conversion to Compressed Natural Gas Vehicles (CNGV). It is assumed that 20% of all petrol vehicles will be converted to use natural gas. To forecast the CNGV demand, it is assumed that a typical vehicle will on average demand 7 liters of petrol per day, which is equivalent to 225 scfd of natural gas. The number of vehicles will grow at the GDP growth rate, which on average is assumed 6.1%, thus making a total demand of 0.6 TCF for 30 years. Further studies should be undertaken to determine the approximate demand and growth patterns. Therefore, based on the above information, the forecasted demand of natural gas for households, institutions and transport is about 1.2 TCF for the period thirty years.

[greatfull dead] 03/3/2017 15:29

tidy,

Could you please give me a link to the podcast.

TIA,
GD