U.S. Government-Bond Yields Rise as Biden Pulls Ahead
06 November 2020 - 9:30PM
Dow Jones News
By Sebastian Pellejero
U.S. government-bond yields rose Friday after signs that
Democratic candidate Joe Biden is taking the lead in the
presidential election.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished Friday's session
at 0.821%, according to Tradeweb, up from 0.775% at Thursday's
close. Yields on longer-dated Treasurys also climbed. The 30-year
yield rose to 1.599% by the end of trading, compared with 1.545%
Thursday.
Yields, which rise when bond prices fall, climbed after new data
showed Mr. Biden pulling ahead in Pennsylvania. Though ballots are
still being counted, a victory in the Keystone State would give Mr.
Biden enough electoral votes to win the presidency as long as he
retains the other states he is expected to win.
Bond investors are paying close attention to election results.
Both the 10- and 30-year yields fell when compared with last
Friday's levels, after climbing in the weeks leading up the
election. Investors had bet on a Democratic sweep of Congress and
the White House, an outcome that many said would likely lead to
greater spending on pandemic relief and infrastructure projects.
But the prospects for that result fell significantly on Election
Day, causing a sharp drop in Treasury yields that extended into the
week.
Investors and economists pay close attention to longer-term
Treasury yields because they help establish borrowing costs across
the economy. Treasury yields still remain above their lows from the
summer, when the 10-year yield fell below 0.6%. Analysts said the
pre-election rise reflected expectations that Congress would still
pass a new phase of coronavirus aid, though the timing and scope of
any deal is uncertain.
"There could be more room for rates to decline if it looks
unlikely that we are about to get a significant Phase 4 deal in a
lame duck session," analysts at TD Securities said in a note
Friday. The yield on the 10-year could retrace all the way to about
0.6%, they added, as the market begins to price in the recent rise
in coronavirus cases and its impact on economic growth.
Recent economic data suggests the economy is continuing to heal
amid rising infections. On Friday, the Labor Department said the
U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October. That was above the forecast of
economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, who expected an
increase of about 530,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%,
down from its double-digit peak in April but well-above the
pre-pandemic level of 3.5%.
Taken together, Friday's developments helped remove some
uncertainty from the market, said Jim Vogel, an interest rates
strategist at FHN Financial. But rising coronavirus cases in the
U.S. will keep bond yields range bound for the near-term.
"Until you get some clarity on the current outbreak versus the
summer, it's going to be hard for the 10-year to break past 0.88%,"
he said. "There could be an economic toll from focusing on
government in 2021, rather than Covid-19 in 2020."
Write to Sebastian Pellejero at sebastian.pellejero@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 06, 2020 16:15 ET (21:15 GMT)
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