- July's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 16.0
million, up 0.1 million from last July's 15.9 million pace and up
from June's surprisingly low 15.3 million level.
- Sales volume in July is expected to fall 1.3% from one year ago
and reach 1.29 million units, a 3.4% decline from June.
- Fleet sales continue to be an unpredictable factor that could
significantly affect the sales pace for July.
ATLANTA, July 25,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Cox Automotive forecast
released today indicates that U.S. July new-vehicle sales will show
some recovery from the widespread software outage that impacted
sales and reporting last month. In July, the seasonally adjusted
annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to rise to 16.0
million, an upward rebound from last month's surprisingly low 15.3
million level.
Last month, the sales pace had been forecast to finish much
higher, but disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software
programs at the end of June likely prevented some sales from being
fully completed and reported. Those sales will likely be captured
in this month's final tallies and, together with seasonal
adjustments, will help push the pace well above the market's 15.5
million average over the last 18 months.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior
economist at Cox Automotive, noted: "July new-vehicle sales are
expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has
consistently over the last year. However, July sales will likely
include some sales that were delayed from June, which should push
the market toward the upper end of the sales range. How much is
unknown, but tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected.
Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in
July's result. Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales
pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this
channel."
According to Cox Automotive's Kelley
Blue Book sales estimates, July sales volume is expected to
fall to 1.29 million, down 1.3% from last year and down 3% from
last month. Through the first half of 2024, monthly new-vehicle
sales volume has averaged 1.31 million units. Total new-vehicle
sales for calendar year 2024 are forecast by Cox Automotive to
reach 15.7 million, an increase from 2023 and the best year since
2019.
July 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle
Sales Forecast
|
Sales
Forecast1
|
Market
Share
|
|
Segment
|
Jul-24
|
Jul-23
|
Jun-24
|
YOY%
|
MOM%
|
Jul-24
|
Jun-24
|
MOM
|
|
Mid-Size Car
|
70,000
|
76,681
|
71,890
|
-8.7 %
|
-2.6 %
|
5.4 %
|
5.4 %
|
0.0 %
|
|
Compact Car
|
95,000
|
96,331
|
98,590
|
-1.4 %
|
-3.6 %
|
7.4 %
|
7.4 %
|
0.0 %
|
|
Full-Size Pickup
Truck
|
185,000
|
180,752
|
189,070
|
2.4 %
|
-2.2 %
|
14.3 %
|
14.2 %
|
0.2 %
|
|
Mid-Size
SUV/Crossover
|
205,000
|
206,103
|
211,083
|
-0.5 %
|
-2.9 %
|
15.9 %
|
15.8 %
|
0.1 %
|
|
Compact
SUV/Crossover
|
210,000
|
222,804
|
216,143
|
-5.7 %
|
-2.8 %
|
16.3 %
|
16.2 %
|
0.1 %
|
|
Other
Segments
|
525,000
|
523,901
|
548,226
|
0.2 %
|
-4.2 %
|
40.7 %
|
41.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
|
Grand
Total2
|
1,290,000
|
1,306,572
|
1,335,002
|
-1.3 %
|
-3.4 %
|
|
|
|
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry
Insights data
2 Total includes segments not
shown
|
|
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
July 2024 has 25 selling days, the
same as last year but one less than last month.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's
largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the
largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online
interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for
car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets.
The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a
portfolio of industry-leading brands that include
Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®,
vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear
Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox
Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately
owned, Atlanta-based company with
$22 billion in annual revenue.
Visit coxautoinc.com or connect
via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on
Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive