Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[whiteslice] 29/8/2018 13:35

CS - should get you there

[club sandwich] 29/8/2018 13:29

anyone got the url - when I click the link on the VRS page it takes me to the Vox home page. TIA

[philby1] 29/8/2018 13:26

Is it on Vox Markets?

[ellissj] 29/8/2018 13:23

Some good churn here now...sooner the end of month 'bonus hunters' are out the better lol ;) aimo. Best ellis

[club sandwich] 29/8/2018 13:21

Alchemy - and I do have a spreadsheet, in which I've spent much happy time playing with the numbers. I believe those numbers I used earlier are fairly conservative (except possibly for the price per gram, which is a massive unknown) - it's really not hard to get to telephone numbers for revenues/profits even without going berserk with assumptions...

[runthejoules] 29/8/2018 13:17

Looks like uncle Festario woke up again at 12.59!

[skyliteandy] 29/8/2018 13:10

By eck, chippy bunch oop North aint the?

Update from VRS HQ - quiet. Sheila on her hols.

[alchemy] 29/8/2018 13:05

Can't be upset by that.Sort of "regime " independent .

[alchemy] 29/8/2018 13:01

That's good modelling . And since that seventies miracle - the spreadsheet - amenable to "what if? " analysis.Great.

[1teepee] 29/8/2018 12:59

I think versarien is a whole new sector

[rogerbridge] 29/8/2018 12:58

As Nanene and other present and future products are the vast majority of revenue. I wonder if will continue to be listed in the Industrial Engineering sector. Possibly a move to the tech sector would improve the share price.

[1teepee] 29/8/2018 12:57

https://www.great.gov.ukHopefully we have a video like this. Maybe that's what Neill has been up to. If this upsets anyone please filter and try not to be rude.

[sonsonnyjim] 29/8/2018 12:56

Conspiracy theory - Neil rnsd this intra day so he could hint something in the podcast

[mj10] 29/8/2018 12:54

this place is a lot happier on blue days.
where is rainbow when you need him.
are we sure name tags are a good idea for the AGM?

[pshevlin] 29/8/2018 12:54

I think simple people should stick to simple subjects.

[club sandwich] 29/8/2018 12:50

what makes you think you'd be let in?

[spike_1] 29/8/2018 12:45

Clubby - re bootie, that's interesting, so in your utopian world anyone who disagrees with you is censored.

Don't think I'll be applying to live there any time soon.

[club sandwich] 29/8/2018 12:33

bootie - congrats, you just made the filter list.

[bootie64] 29/8/2018 12:21

scroll down for a really interesting comment about brexit











































.keep going





































































well, you get the picture

[johnveals] 29/8/2018 12:10

Yes, we can fail to make £6 through a black swan event but the high probability is that we will, assuming a few of our collaborations lead to significant orders, and if we make £6 we have effectively proved the model and the sky’s the limit.

[club sandwich] 29/8/2018 12:08

Alchemy - I come at it the other way, how large the orders might be, and what they might be sold for.

NR stated five or so months ago - as a result of a direct question from me on Twitter - that a Unilever-sized company might order 600T of nanene. That's just his guess, of course, but presumably quite an educated one. Let's assume he got carried away, and in fact it's only 200T. Let's assume that DDP, IAI, Continental etc might order similar amounts. He said on the last podcast that the two collabs announced last week could need 'staggering' amounts of nanene - but let's assume they only take the same as Unilever. So 6 collab partners each of whom (eventually) might order 200T of nanene each, for 1200T total (presumably those would be renewing orders - the nanene would obviously get used up in products).

Next question - what would it sell for? This is, quite literally, the $64bn question. Completely unknowable, only NR and the CFO know that, and even they probably have a differential pricing scale depending on amount, who the client is, and what products the nanene will end up in. In my own mind I assume £1/g, so £1m/T. That might be too high or too low, but it's a figure.

So 1200T x £1m/T = £1.2bn revenue.

You can choose your own valuation metric, but as a rule of thumb I use MC = revenue x 10. Or £12bn.

That is almost certainly wildly wrong for all sorts of reasons - but it would have to be out by orders of magnitude not to be worth a lot more than £6 a share.

And of course all of that is without China or India...