Versarien Share Discussion Threads

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 22:20

So your ISA point was wrong because of your wrong assumption.

[pwhite73] 14/12/2024 21:35

zydecoco - I said this subject is now closed but just for you let's say he already had £1 billion of cash in his ISA. If he made a profit of between £200k - £300k at the lowest sell price of 100p he could not have lost out on a million profit as the highest peak price was only 186p, 86% higher.

The key factor here is the gap between 100p and the highest price of 186p. The gap is not large enough for him to have lost out on over a million pounds. Had the highest price been 800p then that's a different matter.

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 21:20

PW, a quick basic observation on your last post is that you are making an assumption that no other money/stocks was already in the ISA and instead that it needed to be injected at the time VRS was purchased. Obviously assets already within the ISA could have been used to purchase the shares.

[pwhite73] 14/12/2024 19:44

Festario - "I was in to VRS originally at around 20p, it initially fell to around 12p, before it sky rocketed to the 180s."

If you made all your purchases at 12p and the lowest you sold for was 100p netting you a profit between £200k - £300k you still could never have been over a million in profit as there is only a gap of 86p between 100p and the peak price of 186p.

Furthermore you claim your profit on VRS was between £200k - £300k. Most people can account for a £100k of missing profit why can't you?.

One final point. You claim you were in VRS from 2017 - early 2019. The annual capital savings limit of £20k into an ISA started on April 2017. If you injected £20k into an ISA and bought all your shares at 20p you would have been holding 100,000 shares in 2017. In 2018 the cheapest price was 63p so again the most you could have purchased with £20k in 2018 is another 31,000 shares that's 131,000 in total at a price of £40,000. Assuming you sold 131,000 at the peak price of 186p in September 2018 your total sell value would have been £243,660

131000 X 186p = £243,660 - £40k outlay = £203,660 profit.

Had you been trading outside of your ISA 20% of the profit you claim you made would have belonged to HMRC.

This subject is now closed.

[philbyk144] 14/12/2024 17:58

Total Innovate Loan with interest is £7.45 million paid over 3 years. You would be mad to give a company a grant based on these numbers.

[neilll77] 14/12/2024 17:57

Yes Phil it looks like both interest and repayments are both from August, not February but it sounds like they need to renegotiate as the figures you quote, I believe are correct and will be almost impossible from the current turn over

[laginaneil] 14/12/2024 17:56

hello wheeze,

Your comment ;

'Progress made by the new management in a short space of time helps illustrate what a destructive force Neil Ricketts was.'

Gnanomat link up was done on Neil Ricketts 'shift' , yes?

So he wasn't so 'destructive' was he?

That's how long this 'new tech' takes to progress i'm afraid,

but he ho try to clear the slate by blaming everything on NR.

[philbyk144] 14/12/2024 17:53

The loan needs to be repaid from August I think. I may be wrong but it looks like being £460,000 a quarter. Or £1.84 million a year. The outflow from operations was £772,000 for six months. So positive cash flow over last year needs to be approximately £3.3 million higher to cover current burn and loan repayment. Quite a stretch for a consultancy company

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 17:41

Err, I'll stick with Warren's view - follow the money. Don't think your attaching stupidity to an investor who has a net worth of of over 140 Billion USD has much credibility

[kemche] 14/12/2024 17:04

I agree with Font's detailed and deep understanding of EBITDA rather than the Sage of Omaha's.

Did buffet buy I-CON or CINE? No! Because he is stupid.

[kemche] 14/12/2024 17:02

"Any thoughts why Richard and Christine Jones would take a 7% stake here ?"

Yes I do have thoughts on that and my thoughts are that the couple are somehow related to the Rogers and the Mensas.


Richard and Christine Jones, acquired more shares on 25th July 2024 bringing their combined holding to 164,449,879 shares = 7.05%.


They then increased their shareholding by 59% to 261,830,814 shares to REDUCE their % holding to 7.04%.

I suspect them of being professional investors.

[neilll77] 14/12/2024 16:48

festario still well done on the 200/250k profit.. I can only dream lol

What do you think went so drastically wrong here in the last 4 years and have you been impressed with Stephen since he took over??

Thanks in advance

[neilll77] 14/12/2024 16:43

It's a good point wheeze. At 1.13m MCAP and this grant more than half of that alone, it looks cheap and the IP, you would hope would be worth many multiples.. especially the fact they have over 130 patents.

One problem is the loan 5m loan they still have plus interest.

The latest contracts, grant, and improved cssh burn shows how useless Neil Rickets was.
IMHO it's a shame Stephen wasn't brought in earlier

[neilll77] 14/12/2024 16:33

Cheers PW.

I even paid £1.99 to read TWs article from 2 days ago regarding the loan payments and the investor presentation.

Of course he wasn't exactly pumping the stock lol but he was suprised by cash run way etc due to the loan repayments not due until August.
This was his summary of the presentation;

Monthly cash burn has fallen to £128,000
• Versarien is projected to reach break-even EBIDTA towards the end of the current financial year i.e. 30 September 2025
• Versarien was in early-stage discussions with two parties about selling its Total Carbide Solutions mature business
• The purchaser of AAC Cyroma was due to start paying the first of its 16 quarterly instalments of £34,375 per quarter commencing this month.
• Versarien is still expecting to get £242,000 plus accrued interest from the purchaser of its Korean business by the end of this month.
• Capital repayments of the £5 million Innovate UK Loan are currently scheduled to commence in August 2025 payable quarterly over 3 years.


PW they will have to raise again I assume still. Unless the sale of Total Carbide Solutions goes ahead I assume.

Do you believe they will raise again and when will it be needed?

With a 128k cash burn a month, even before they receive the;
£242k from MCK
£36K from AAC sale from this month
£663 from Gnanomat

My opinion is it shouldn't be until March at earliest [although if there is a massive spike and it holds they may raise early] like March 2024 when the price was pumped to 0.125p after the previous raise in January at 0.08p

The cash burn reduction is a big relief and hopefully they can get the 2 UK grants they are looking at.
These grants are not normally for 100% but at Gnanomat they are already paying staff.. now they have €800k to help

[wheeze] 14/12/2024 16:15

I feel your pain Festario, having had similar experiences with other shares. I have reached the conclusion that you can never win with shares - you never quite buy at the bottom nor do you sell at the top. Out of interest, what was the market cap of VRS when it was 180p ? Currently the market values it at 1 million which was the value of the shares you held . Even if you add the debt it values the company at under ten million. I wonder how much the IP is worth?

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 15:14

Well done Fest, quarter of a million quid is a good profit.

[festario] 14/12/2024 15:11

PWhite, your maths is completely erroneous, and is based on those black and white assumptions that seems to drive your Bi polar like behaviour. I was in to VRS originally at around 20p, it initially fell to around 12p, before it sky rocketed to the 180s.I bought all the way up, and continued to put any spare cash into it. At one point across my 2 trading accounts, I was showing well over £1m in profit.My wife never tires of reminding me of that.All the way down from the 160s to the 100p level I was selling, but I often bought back (trading on results days) thus ruining my average.The final analysis showed a profit between £200k and £300k

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 14:44

No idea at all wheeze, maybe they are hedging against something? All the best

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 14:41

Have a good weekend BlueM

[wheeze] 14/12/2024 14:36

I'm entirely sure you are not short zydecocoNo dispute that shareholders have lost heavily. Any thoughts why Richard and Christine Jones would take a 7% stake here ?Best wishesWheeze

[the cronk] 14/12/2024 14:12

PW,

This investing upstart doesn't like EBITDA very much!

hxxps://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/warren-buffett-ebitda/



"EBITDA, unlike metrics such as operating income (EBIT) and net income, is a non-GAAP metric that is affected by management discretion on which items to add back or deduct.

For example, many companies nowadays claim to become profitable, but only on an adjusted EBITDA basis (which is often inclusive of many subjective adjustments).

The reason these issues matter is that EBITDA removes real expenses that a company must actually spend capital on – e.g. interest expense, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

As a result, using EBITDA as a standalone profitability metric can be misleading, especially for capital-intensive companies."


I guess it's the subjectivity of the adjustments that management can make that appeals to companies that like to quote EBITDA.

Warren's a more old fashioned accountant type who likes to see the complete picture with none of the nasties conveniently removed.

Still, what does he know?


"The point is not that EBITDA is a flawed measure of profitability that should not be used, but rather, it is important to be aware of the metric’s shortcomings.

To summarize, EBITDA can make unprofitable companies appear profitable since EBITDA ignores depreciation and amortization as well as interest and taxes."

[bbmsionlypostafter mk2] 14/12/2024 14:07

Is it actually possible to short VRS when the share price has collapsed to virtually nothing?

Could one of you rampers please post a link to the shorting opportunities you are talking about?

Incidentally, I think one would have to be insane to short VRS, if it is even possible. The calibre of investors here could easily drive the share price up hundreds of % based on nothing but a frothy rumour & the ensuing ramp. They done it before on Ricketts' & superg's hot air.

I sill wouldn't touch VRS with a bargepole, a view the mgmt seems to share with me as IIRC not one of them has bought any at these giveaway prices.

[bluemango] 14/12/2024 13:49

#19795 The assumption is in the 'most probably' and 'very likely'

Bored now, I'll leave you to it for rest of the day. It's the weekend!

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 13:41

Wheeze - for info. I have never shorted a stock and never will.

[zydecoco] 14/12/2024 13:40

BlueM, I posted "VRS has destroyed shareholder value and diluted shareholders relentlessly and in great magnitudes. it will most probably and very likely continue to do so."that statement is not an assumption.