Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 10/6/2018 16:00

The FEVR pattern is exemplified by this article from a very good commentator.

"Fever-Tree Drinks Sold at 2768p - May 18 - 56.1% gain
I really like Fever-Tree, both as a brand and as a company, and wrote about them in some depth a year ago. However I'm not alone in liking the share and that's just one reason why they are on a heady forward P/E ratio of 65. Another good reason for this rating is that in prior years the company has repeatedly and materially outperformed analyst forecasts - meaning that what has looked like a very high rating at the start of the year has proved anything but high at the end. However current forecasts are for 11% profit growth in 2018 and this seems like a very low bar - yet in the recent update, mentioned below, the board stated that they are merely in-line with this forecast at the moment. This is a concern since the UK market is pretty much owned by Fever-Tree, and they're only just getting started with their US operations, which makes me think that perhaps the shares need to take a breather while the business catches up. So, for the time being, I'm out."

Current price is 3075.
I used this argument (my own) in March 2016 and sold a few with the intention of buying back.
I've learned!
apad 😇

[apad] 10/6/2018 14:47

High St. issues covered in this beautifully crafted article.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/17/high-streets-heart-cities-web

[panic investor] 10/6/2018 11:19

Councils won't do that they've only just doubled them ! That's why a lot of independents are leaving too -

[big7ime] 10/6/2018 11:06

Car ownership across most of the country (except some city centres) is a necessity
And out of town shopping is booming in contrast to your east end example, with town centres becoming ghost towns, APAD is right and councils must reduce business (shop) rates and make parking more convenient
I no longer visit my town shops, I drop my wife off occasionally but can't remember the last time I walked through the shopping centre
I'm not typical but an increasing lot must be similar

[rp19] 09/6/2018 22:02

London is a bit of a different beast. Organic veg and boutique shops will not be successful in the de industrialised north. National planning policy does not recommend the use of maximum parking standards unless in specific circumstances. As such, car ownership is easy and still seen as necessary in many places.

[hydrus] 09/6/2018 21:40

All makes sense cbootle. Issue is that most people live outside London in towns and small cities with town/city centres so that's going to be a problem, at least during the adjustment phase.APAD agree re government pace. They should be aggressively reducing business rates and incentivising small local businesses to move into town centres. Won't happen though until it's too late.

[cbootle] 09/6/2018 21:20

More optimistic here - here in east London we seem to be coming out the other side already, though often called gentrification. The high streets becoming filled with cafes, restaurants, boutique shops, antiques, wine-bars, organic veg shops etc - basically stuff you wouldn't buy online. The larger stores - Woolies, BHS etc gone (one's become a huge gym). A driver for this (excuse the pun) is fewer and fewer are able to drive (many new builds have a "no car permit" restriction) - it's now below 50% of households have a car. Population density is increasing, giving more footfall to local shops. Cycling is booming with new segregated cycle paths and rat-runs through residential areas cut-off.

So I see *local* shops booming. Town centres (that need a car for transporting shopping), supermarkets and out-of-town centres (even worse) are indeed doomed.

[apad] 09/6/2018 20:15

On the High St. The only thing I have to add is that it doesn't depend on the age gap.
It'll be faster than people expect because all ages are using the internet.

.gov will be rubbish at adapting. The french protected their town centres whilst we encouraged out of town stores and centres.

We will be equally rubbish at changing the nature of town centres into centres of activity, rather than centres of shopping.

Doomed, we're all doomed.

apad 😇

[hydrus] 09/6/2018 17:59

APAD I've taken the view that it's not priced to grow significantly from here so as a high quality business with a good dividend it's actually a sensible investment. If growth does continue then rewards would be very good. RP thanks it's just my view but I don't think it's a million miles away from the reality. I'm a long term optimist on town centres, from a consumer perspective. They could become interesting, unique experience based venues.Short term won't be fun for anyone.

[apad] 09/6/2018 16:29

Excellent Beddard article on GAW, Hydrus. I've always taken the view that their customer base should be static to relatively slow growing, so never understood this growth phase.
I'm confused at a much higher level now.
apad😎

[rp19] 09/6/2018 16:12

H - really good assessment of town centres. Unless you can differentiate in terms of products, service or experience then the high street outlook is bleak.

[panic investor] 09/6/2018 15:34

I hold the latter too

[valhamos] 09/6/2018 13:54

Big7

"nobody here seems to hold it otherwise I'm sure they'd be shouting about it"

I hold and mentioned it a couple of times. No real incentive to "shout about it" here - it's graphene, remember, which is a bit of a no-go area for some in terms of stock ideas to research. VRS - good newsflow in recent months - worth anyone looking at the RNS if not up to speed.

[hydrus] 09/6/2018 12:38

Decimation of high street hasn't even begun yet really. Young people have grown up with internet shopping and that will become the main way shopping is done as older generations die out. Town centres will look horrendous initially as landlords continue to try and hold out for decent rents. Lots of empty shops. However, over time landlords will have to drop rents until they find a market, which I think might be small local businesses and food outlets. In the end, town centres will be interesting, unique places with entertainment etc peppered with a few remaining chain shops, services such as hairdressers and local businesses. Will be good but there will be a pretty horrendous period until we get there. Many town centres though will shrink, with some units converted to housing.I wouldn't touch commercial property if it has any shops or shopping centres. Will be toxic assets in a few years I reckon. Could cause a financial meltdown as loans become junk.

[apad] 09/6/2018 11:43

Timing is more important with cyclical industries and sine wave stocks I reckon.

Looking back on timing errors with growth stocks can make them seem trivial.

High St looks a mess!

.gov subsidising a spanish industry to build a third runway at Heathrow!
Hinckley Point!
HS2!
Solar and Wind Power Station subsidies!
Politicians really are a bunch of top class fopdoodles.
There must be a common sense lobotomy operation on all elected parliamentarians.

apad😡

[big7ime] 09/6/2018 11:13

Lauders I think it will work its way through this and see much higher levels by next yr. the next few weeks will prob show continued weakness to say 14.5-15 going by the chart and lack of news until July
14 wells to be drilled in six mths looks too optimistic to me but even if six start getting results then the share price should re-rate. It only takes one to be sufficiently large enough to transform the company and the area is low risk exploration

[big7ime] 09/6/2018 11:03

Maybe a bad example Mod, what I meant really was that it had gone quiet on here, and Whoosh. nobody here seems to hold it otherwise I'm sure they'd be shouting about it
Anyway I think I know what I'm talking about even though I can't explain it

[hydrus] 09/6/2018 10:37

Lauders it depends on how you are accessing the forum, can't always edit posts.

[janeann] 09/6/2018 10:00

buying and selling; interesting thoughts some way above. I have a tendancy to buy on highs - often a costly mistake. I now try to discipline myself before pressing the buy button to consider whether if I already held I should now be selling , or if I am selling (especially when something has fallen from a peak) I should in reality be buying.

But its easy to forget this and I am clearly not considering it enough! Even on stocks I firmly believe in.

[lauders] 09/6/2018 01:51

Thanks for highlighting the beddard article Hydrus. You are able to edit your post by the way. Just click the "edit" tab to the right of your name and the number of the post, edit the post, click "update" and job done!

I always appreciate Maynard Paton's view on companies and since I am aware of AIEA & they are on my watch-list this made interesting reading:

Big7ime - I am still holding on to my AMER as well. One day the sentiment will change there, it is just a waiting game. Nice to see my HCM stalwart bounce back in a big way from the recent BTFD opportunity. If I had spare cash I would have topped up but alas I have a big outgoing at present and need to find funds not spend them!

[hydrus] 08/6/2018 22:33

Richard Bedford article on GAW in MoneyWeek. Positive on long term growth. Great customer service flagged too.

[modform] 08/6/2018 19:28

Big7
VRS, your philosophy of quiet shares doing well, a quiet share, really... Over 15000 posts since 25 January 2018, and you are missing all the twitter funs

In contrast AFM has had 25 posts since Oct 2017

[big7ime] 08/6/2018 18:58

One that's been mentioned here a few times a while back - VRS has gone ballistic
Not a follower of it but how ironic it's not been mentioned whilst it has been shooting up, sort of proves my philosophy of quiet shrs doing well

[big7ime] 08/6/2018 18:43

Someone else's take on AMER: