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Venture Life Share Discussion Threads
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|Hi APAD, I've just started doing some research on FFX, mainly via a video from the UK investor show.
I've also just discovered all my colleagues in our London office have started using one of the newer kids on the block, Monzo:
hTTps://monzo.com/about/ It does seem to me like this could be a big growth area.
FFX have been around for a while, have decent recurring revenues and the CEO thinks the potential market is massive so perhaps there is room to co-exist with others. Do you see they have anything else in particular that makes them more likely to thrive versus others?|
|Emailed faron few weeks ago and had a swift and comprehensive reply from dr markku jalkanen. Asked about safety problems with traumakine, he sent 2 papers explaining the issue. basically a 6 day treatment doesn't have, or not proven to have side effects. not significant anyway.Mr Harrison (bvxp) was also very helpful when contacted in the past. A responsive and helpful ceo always a good sign. but shouldn't be read as the only sign.|
RB. showered me with gold for Durex. Bless 'em.|
Have you ever tried dealing with the Registrar side of the business?
I rest my brief(s) - on thr chair.
|Hi jeff :-)
From my point of view it's a great problem to have.
I just don't see it as a PER type of problem - 'cos that's all accountancy valuation.
I see it as a brand valuation problem, and I have absolutely no idea how to deal with it!
|Hi, I'm a lurker and watcher here.
Re: FEVR, I didn't take up the IPO because I thought it was too expensive. Doh! However, my penny's worth now is that, once a wonder growth-stock achieves a very high PER, new investors need to be very aware that they are buying future growth and that as the company matures and growth rates normalise, the PER will revert to norm, so one can see a period of share price underperformance even when forecast revenue and profit growth is being achieved. The classic example I always use is Capita (CPI), which in the early days of outsourcing was seeing years of compound revenue/profit growth of 50%+ and at one stage its shares traded on a PER around 150x. Despite those stellar figures, the share price stagnated for years as the PER normalised. It trades today on 10x 'underlying' eps. As a rule-of-thumb I use a mean average for the market around 14x PER and assume that all stocks will revert to that at some point. FEVR currently trades on over 66x last reported earnings. I must admit that I don't know the forecasts, but buyers today are inherently assuming (and paying for) profits around 5x the current level in the foreseeable future.
That's me penny's worth. I'll get back in me box.|
|News hopefully due next week Apad! I think they have a lot to share & whether correct or incorrect there is a lot of "buzz" around social media circles. I really hope there will be news next week anyway and we will see the way forward more clearly ;-) Nice to see such an obliging CEO! Wish forward's was so approachable! Will have to look at FFX.|
|FWIW I reckon your FENR type investments are a decent strategy, niche companies that are well managed and surviving a downturn, rather than frenetic high st. punts.
What has propelled QuicklyBackward forward :-)|
|Noted PP's comments Apad. Since he knows the retail sector well made me pay more attention. Still thinking about my long term buy and hold then enjoy the income company and none the nearer on deciding. BVXP would be good if I was happy with such a limited number of staff. What happens if our CEO has some unfortunate accident or something? Like the income though!|
|Read Paul Scott for the positive view on NXT, L.
Says they have short leases so can manage a high st. exit (hexit?).
I looked at it and decided their website was like a view of a store selling everything from flowers to furniture.
My view is that the on-line world on general purpose stuff has been won by the Amazon model, but there are niche opportunities for specialists with a great brand, like BOO.
So, rejected Next for my daughter's ISAs.
Big I've also seen hi-promise shares collapse (especially in the dot.com boom days). FEVR is an inspired roll out of innovative luxury mixers. The risk, to me is not hi-lited by the likes of Britvic (tired old brands), but by the need to repeat it's UK success in the US and Europe. In my view to last two results were (relatively) disappointing in this respect, but the UK carried on in overdrive. At the moment Britvic and FEVR are both 'valued' at about £1.8billion, but iff (if and only if) the US market thrives FEVR will accelerate away. FEVR are selling the idea of their 'dark' mixers as a spearhead.
Soooo, what I will be looking for is signs that this strategy is failing, not numerical valuations.
|If you want to talk "value" would you consider NXT a contender? Good yield, price almost 50% off its highs & pays special dividends. Will it suffer owing to the likes of BOO or will it intensify its online presence to compensate? Must be OK as an income holding at least?|
|2bn for a niche drinks co cannot be called the early days for however long it's been listed
Ive seen similar stars fall 70% in a day when it ends
Just my view
Well done to have ridden it thus far|
|FEVR may well be overvalued and burn out like a shooting star.
The last time I succumbed to such a view was when I doubled my money on ARM in the very early days!
These days I ride the bronco for as long as possible.
Remember that governments are printing money like mad and that 'investments' are made in bonds that guarantee a loss in money over, say, a two year period. Makes the notion of Value very distorted.
Lovely morning and the weather due to turn cold on Tuesday.|
|:-) competition, real pf good, but not that good. And like Red says, it ain't over till it's over. hope we all end up doing well together|
|Dacian - I also have a starting tranche in NTQ, which looks very promising. As a closet chart watcher I note the regular bounce between upper and lower trend lines, as I'm sure you do, but let's not tell anyone else. I will be adding again shortly after the bounce confirms on lower trend. If you are buying pls leave some for me!
Lazy JSG chart is making a bit of an effort today. Slow, but very pleasing.
Seems to be a feeling from some EMH contributors, and an alleged company email today, that the recent TU only succeeded in confusing, confounding and worrying holders (true, inc me). The BoD are believed to intend to attempt to rectify things by better explaining the potential business position at a public meet next week.
DIS taking an expensive mini-breather today. Knocks a mini-lump off my pf but should be temporary damage. I believe this stock still has further to go this year.
PTSG still looking very strong. Lots more to come.
Have a good weekend all.
|Oops, repeating myself.
"Don't you know who I am?"
"Don't worry dear the nurse will be along in a moment, she will let you know."
|modform - re TRD - concur cheap on valuation grounds, reckon a big seller/s around|
|psAnd in my almost 10 years on these bulletin boards I've not seen anyone exposing the entire pf with such transparency and integrity like Apad does it. I think there is very little argument against that, if any. I always flag my shares After I bought them, he does it the other way around. Aspirational, really.|
or Britvic? No contest.
They are shares I have already bought and are still possibles for increasing.
I might buy an initial holding and change my mind.
|Yes Modform, think I made a mistake selling ECSC so bought back in pretty swiftly. stupid really, shouldn't have sold in the first place. NTQ is a pretty decent value play with the management actively protecting the bs. the crude index is not the immediate reference, but the US rig count. there's quite a long argument pro us shale but that's another conversation. the only inconvenience I see right now is that a bit of patience is needed. not worried at all about the oil recovery. at least not yet. us shale is here to stay.|
A very valid point. I can remember back to the days of the Dot Com boom. Companies with valuations of $billions that consisted on a nerd in a bedroom or garage, virtually zero sales and profit was a dirty word.
BT was valued at c£15 per share and a PE multiple heading towards 100 or so. The tintins were forecasting a much higher valuation!
The bubble burst and there was blood everywhere. The clever money got out ahead of the collapse.
There are always sectors and individual stocks that have those runaway moments.
If you are in on the ground floor, there are good profits to be had.
The old adage of "Sell half on a double" is a good insurance policy. The riskier the investment, the more sensible it is to take the initial stake off the table.
On the other hand, there are quality businesses that will continue to grow on a stellar year on year pathway.
The key is to each situation.