Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[cbootle] 08/6/2018 17:10

Thanks APAD, good response. Certainly brands can appear to come from nowhere, e.g. I noticed Michael Kors become ubiquitous over the last couple of years, but never heard of him... (and will probably disappear as fast when office ladies notice all other OLs are toting the same).

So maybe a summary of Anthony Cross (and others) is not to worry about the price getting too high, but rather, would you buy now? The arguments for getting out seem to be the same for getting in. So if it no longer qualifies for getting in, it's time for getting out. Would you recommend me to punt on it? Looking at the 2 year chart, I think you've multibagged...

[apad] 08/6/2018 17:04

Hydrus.

Working relationships with US companies and universities over the years have allowed me to look under the bonnet (hood) of US society.

The disconnect between the reality and the image (their own and the medias) is deeply disturbing.

No way am I ever going back.

apad🏴𖙰7;󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

[hydrus] 08/6/2018 16:57

APAD you'll have to take an autumn break in New York and do a massive bar crawl to test it yourself. If you must expand your break to LA then so be it.

[felix99] 08/6/2018 16:49

AMER - I have a few waterlogged shares - bought a trade from 16 to 20 and sold the traders . I ignore the RNS 's its up one month down another according to weather etc. I think after recent update though they need some strike success from these wells. If they don't come in I will take my medicine …

[apad] 08/6/2018 16:49

cbootle,
I don't think FEVR has any barriers to competition.

Neither did Schweppes - although one might have argued that its market dominance made it difficult to compete against!

Louis Vuitton, or any brand faces the same problem.

Pears soap stopped advertising because of their universal dominance. RIP.

Schweppes also took their eye off the ball, by using distributed franchises and not nourishing their brand's image. Market dominance lulled them into a false sense of security.

Agree with you about the US, Hydrus. US office opens this month - maybe an effect by Xmas? Just wish I could divine a way of monitoring yoodleland.

apad

[homebrewruss] 08/6/2018 15:14

Thanks Big7. Hopefully they get some early success with the drill.
It's peverse with the producers, production and actual cash gets much less recognition than the 'excitement' of the drillbit.

HUR is my biggest (oil) bet this year. Operational progress is going well and I still think it could get near to £1 ahead of first production which might be towards the end of this year/early next - it has a large pi and institutional following so I anticipate it will move well as the year progresses.

I've got much of my position for HUR on a spreadbet with a guaranteed stop to protect the downside in case there is a problem when they try and bring on production.
If production goes well next year maybe a bid for a much higher price will ensue but who knows.

[big7ime] 08/6/2018 14:31

I'm sticking Hb. Too many PIs in it though who are always going to be impatient so we get Some flooding and the share price tanks
They don't call it the heart attack sector for nothing, I have been surprised bŷ the share price fall this yr but am encouraged by JWs continued purchasing and with my new found charting skills can understand that the bowl shape forming needed a retraction before the next run up which could be really exciting if the results of the well drills come in good
For a producing co it is quite incredibly undervalued but if it then gets re-rated for huge exploration the shares could quite easily go ridiculously the other way in to the £s
tuck it away and forget the noise would be my advice but as they say - wtfdik

[madmix] 08/6/2018 14:01

Hydrus,

It wouldn't surprise me to see GAW react in the same way as the inline trading statement from FEVR. In other words, a sell-off (largely from private investors) on the day of the trading statement followed by a recovery in the following weeks, with institutions buying.

But we shall see. Still holding all of mine. Can't blame anyone for top slicing above £30 though.

[hydrus] 08/6/2018 13:10

I've not got a big position in GAW having bought in recently at about today's price. Quite tempted to add more but I'll wait to see how it settles down over next few days. Looks cheap to me.

[homebrewruss] 08/6/2018 12:23

Big7 are you sticking with Amerisur?
I have a few which I'm going to keep. Still plenty of cash coming in and once the drilling campaign gets going we should hopefully see a turnaround.

[redartbmud] 08/6/2018 12:22

Has anyone thought about the implications for the big oilers that will arise from the float of Aramco. The trackers will be obliged to buy, and adjust their weightings on Rdsb, BP etc.

I have Rdsb and BP tucked away and have tended to ignore them through the vagaries of the market swings.

red

[big7ime] 08/6/2018 11:21

Not a good day for me

[al101uk] 08/6/2018 09:10

Amazon is one hell of a downside risk and an extremely difficult thing to replicate I would imagine.

Ebay feels like proposition that belongs in the past to me, it has the feel of an online Woolworths, a slightly dog eared, once very successful establishment that is past it's time. It has plenty of work to do to re-invigorate it's image and at the same time transition it's business.

I'm not even sure how you transition a business to copy Amazon, sounds very ambitious to me, while at the same time lacks ideas or innovation.

[attrader] 07/6/2018 19:32

Looking at eBay .. - Owns marketplace, classified and event tickets businesses with decent network moat - Transitioning into online marketplace like Amazon.. 85% of the items sold are fixed price - 3bn Fcf which will most likely grow to 4bn due to payment disintermediation - likely their investments in brand awareness, push on attracting more sellers will grow their revenues Only downside I can think of is the competition from likes of Amazon.. Any other risks I should take into account ?

[cbootle] 07/6/2018 16:31

Often read something along the lines of "the two hardest things of investment are deciding when to buy and when to sell, particularly when to sell." Teaching many here how to suck eggs, but a quick search found this: [...] which is by Anthony Cross... who owns (in a personal capacity, not through Lion Trust) 14% of ARC...

In short, does FEVR still have barriers to competition to justify its pricing (both of shares and products)?

[hydrus] 07/6/2018 16:15

'The usual valuation metrics don't apply'Sounds a bit like:'It's different this time'

[hydrus] 07/6/2018 16:13

It will be too expensive at some point APAD. Could be already but hard to tell until see US efforts and results. I am somewhat sceptical about how they will get on in the US.

[big7ime] 07/6/2018 15:45

Barc note on KIE sends it down to their tgt price. On a day that they announce a good deal to use their land bank before govt penalties are applied
Good trading opp as it will bounce back tomorrow
Tempted to load up anyway as these twerps get it so wrong

[gsbmba99] 07/6/2018 15:08

The Roche view on market shares of in vitro diagnostics market using 2016 data - - is on page 12. Roche 19%, Abbott 10%, Danaher 10%, Siemens 8%. My understanding is the machines come with multi-year exclusive reagent deals. A bit like printer/toner or razor/razor blade. For an incredibly time sensitive test like troponin, advanced hospitals will have on-site equipment so there will be a network of "captive" users.

[apad] 07/6/2018 14:44

FEVR doing its usual after all of the "it's far too expensive" post the rns.
The usual valuation metrics just don't apply - but it's all they know how to do, them tintins.
apad

[apad] 07/6/2018 12:32

Lauders, I vaguely remember that Roche is the market leader and Siemens is about half that of Roche. Lots of players I believe.
apad

[lauders] 07/6/2018 12:25

Just need to find out how widespread/popular the Siemens units are Apad. Hope they are very popular, efficient and priced to sell! Some research when possible I think!

[apad] 07/6/2018 12:20

FY is October, madmix. I'm not sure that there will be real news in July. If I am right and customers delay whilst sorting systems then there may be a markdown on such news in July or August.

I suppose they might make money helping customers sort out their response to the regulations.
apad😊

ps
Should we consider that a massive 'no response' from consumers might ruin the industry?

[apad] 07/6/2018 12:14

The cost of the diagnostic equipment means that those places with Siemens equipment are a guaranteed market for 'our' troponin eventually. Just a question of the speed of roll out.

apad

[madmix] 07/6/2018 12:08

APAD,

Thanks for your thoughts on DOTD. I held previously, but sold at the end of Feb as I wasn't keen on the interim results.

They tend to put out a full year trading update around the middle of July, so I'll wait for that before deciding whether to buy back in.