Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wodahsnoom] 06/7/2024 10:51

"Great minds think alike etc :)

[xxnjr] 06/7/2024 10:02

"never thought I'd say I have more faith in a McDade run company than Tlw."

wods. I did exactly the same! And now feel the same!

[wodahsnoom] 06/7/2024 09:56

xxnjr, I've read with interest, many of your posts and I find them informative and aligning with my views to some extent (I'm maybe a little more positive). I am a lth and sometimes wonder why. Rahul cannot continue to rest on the laurels of saving the company from bankruptcy (he wasn't solely responsible for that either). I have added to a position in AET recently and never thought I'd say I have more faith in a McDade run company than Tlw. It seems Rahul has taken the year off and that's not good enough for the package he's on.

[xxnjr] 06/7/2024 09:46

Wods, Drilling outcome clearly not great. Didn't mean to suggest he was sidelined. But his input on well locations may not have been the primary/decisive input. Maybe he was pushed? Who knows. I guess we'll find out as to who and why at some point.....

ps.... he seems to have been based in London (as per linkedin). Not Ghana as I'd assumed.

[up just a little bit] 06/7/2024 09:27

With all the negative comments from xxjnr it's a good job he holds no shares in TLW.

[up just a little bit] 06/7/2024 09:25

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-and-oil-forecast-wti-supported-near-83-50-buy-today-1443892

[wodahsnoom] 06/7/2024 09:24

xxnjr, so with all that drilling (however efficient it was) and money spent, production remains flat. Hardly a great record is it? Maybe the MD of Tullow Ghana was left out of key decisions on well locations like you speculate, but he unlike Rahul, has an experienced technical background. I'd find it hard to believe (and there is no evidence to suggest)he was sidelined in some way.

[xxnjr] 06/7/2024 09:05

FWIW Oil (BOPD)

Yr/Field/Gross/int%/net

2023
Jub/83,409/38.98%/32,513
TEN/18,401/54.84%/10,091
Non-op Net/13,200
Total: 55,804 BOPD

2024 fairly optimistic XX assumptions
JUB 1H=91.4 2H=85.9 Yr=88.7
TEN yr=17.7
Non-op=12.0
Results in 34.5 + 9.7 + 12 = 56.3K BOPD

In other words, even with what I'd say are fairly optimistic assumptions made at the current time, 2024 production could be similar to last year. 24 FCF forecast looks safe for now though?

2025 OTOH?....

[xxnjr] 06/7/2024 08:14

I take your point wodahsnoom. Yes I did wonder some of that myself. TLW have been very efficient at drilling wells. But the latest ones don't seem to have added much, if any, of a sustained production uplift.

What I would suggest is the drilling program itself and JSE installation were both managed very efficiently at the Ghana end. But the location of the wells, the size and shape of the program (20 wells) and (perhaps an ill fated?) decision to drill on vintage 4D seismic - All those decisions may have been taken in London, or elsewhere?

The only operational fly in the ointment afaics is the w/inj issue. But since the company decline invitations to fully explain what has actually been going on with that, we are left in the dark there.

I personally don't have much confidence in the tightly controlled messaging coming out of London.

[wodahsnoom] 06/7/2024 07:07

His record in successful drilling outcomes and JSE project was less than effective, I would suggest. Was he pushed? Is there more bad news on Ghana production (which he was responsible for). His parting comments "I'd like to thank the Tullow Ghana team for all their support and assistance and wish them all the best for the future" kinda leads to the conclusion he's parting on bad terms. No mention of Rahul, senior management team etc.

[xxnjr] 06/7/2024 01:01

Uh-Oh! This is not good news afaics



Always thought Wissam Al-Monthiry was outstanding in sorting out FPSO operational issues and uptimes. He was probably one of the most effective, if not the most effective employee in the company. Sorry to see him go and being replaced by a temporary appointee who previously managed the much smaller non-operated Gabon ops.

[yousif] 05/7/2024 18:42

Up
Filtered

[up just a little bit] 05/7/2024 15:31

Let's hope!

[badger36] 05/7/2024 14:11

I'm sure most of us wish your optimism and those projections are realized

[up just a little bit] 05/7/2024 10:47

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/LSE-TLW/forecast/

[zingaro] 05/7/2024 09:16

filtered up

[up just a little bit] 05/7/2024 08:51

Move on if you don't like it. And yes please use the filter. If you say you do then stop peeping.

[up just a little bit] 05/7/2024 08:50

No Badger nothing you say will have an impact. Just like xxjnr who doesn't like the forum because he gets challenged for his hatred of the management even though he owns no shares.

[xxnjr] 05/7/2024 08:21

Crikey! What a mess this forum has become!
the filter button is there for a reason.....

[badger36] 05/7/2024 08:08

Dhir and his claque are the reason this is in the pathetic state it is. They have done nothing to stop the slide into the 20s at a time of rising oil prices Guess now it's the political upset and after that the global warming etcYou honestly think anything we say has any impact?

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 23:19

So why does he put TLW down at every single opportunity?

[alfiex] 04/7/2024 22:31

xxnjr did declare he was back in, and does have a wealth of knowledge

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 18:34

Whilst xxnjr has previously said he hols no shares he posts mainly negative posts re TLW to warn shareholders of their performance. I however am aware of Tullows past but what you miss is the here and NOW. At this price and what they produce and the oil price there is money to be made. So, stick with the past or move on.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 18:22

Zingaro, put the shoe on the other foot and open your mind.