Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 25/6/2024 09:50

Good find XX, a lot to take in.
Ghana,s Oil brings in reliable cash from the international markets long may it continue.

Things not going so well at the new Dangnote refinery in Nigeria


also

Kenya protests escalate

[xxnjr] 25/6/2024 09:08

Ghana signs US$12billion deal for first phase of Petroleum Hub Project

[xxnjr] 25/6/2024 09:03

No change in the short position for a while.
Bonds: 2026's have softened a tad from 97% to 95% in recent days.

[xxnjr] 25/6/2024 08:52

2024 Guidance Range as per Jan 2024 trad update: 55/58/61
That is lower guidance than last year and back even to 2022 levels.

Even more concerning, whilst January guidance was “maintained221; at this year's AGM, the sign post is clearing pointing downhill “2024 guidance remains 62-68 kboepd, with the full-year outcome expected to be towards the lower end of the range.”

According to the same May AGM statement
“This (lower production) does not impact Tullow's cash flow guidance as the total number of liftings expected from Ghana remains unchanged.

But note the original 2024 January Trading update based on a stronger production outlook said

“Forecast free cash flow of $200-300 million at $80/bbl, with the range largely driven by timing of revenue receipts for 18 to 19 [net] cargoes lifted in Ghana during the year.”

If the company misses 1 cargo that’s a revenue shortfall of approx

955,000 bbls x say $79 realised price = $75m

Let's see but if production does fall off during 2H (as no wells drilled) then there could be further downgrades to come like there were last year.

[xxnjr] 25/6/2024 07:26

Ullage:

FPSO/Ullage(bbl)/Current Prod'n(bopd)/Days to fill Ullage

Prof John Evans/700,000/18,000/39

Kwame Nkrumah/600,000/90,000/6

Given above stats I don't believe utilisation of ullage is a significant factor when considering Jubilee offloads.

[up just a little bit] 25/6/2024 01:04

Why do "we" need to kick him out. You have already stated that you have no shares in TLW. You are obsessed and to any objective observer would appear to be previously aggrieved share holder who has gambled and lost their shirt?

[xxnjr] 24/6/2024 23:51

Wish they'd kick out the CEO as he seems to live in a parallel universe.
Better to have someone investors have more confidence in.

[badger36] 24/6/2024 16:56

Another 1.2 m dump at the close The only satisfaction I'll get if it's bought out for a song and they kick those clowns out and leave their options worthless

[alfiex] 24/6/2024 15:09

Especially when the update is "no change"

[up just a little bit] 24/6/2024 13:31

Hardly worth a July update when there is news due as the website states the 7th August .

[xxnjr] 24/6/2024 12:05

SS - What we can say is 1H should look pretty good vs last yr, as there have been 17 ghana gross cargoes*, against 14 in 2023/1H and as you pointed out OP is stronger, plus maybe some gains from more favourable(?) hedging. No July trading update, results 1 month earlier than usual, now August.

Not a fan of the current regime's news management.

* nb: doesn't necessarily translate into revenue recognition depending when cash received.

[subsurface] 24/6/2024 11:08

Interesting Analysis xx

Just so many variables from production to tanker loading and export. its worth noting the realized price of the Oil 2023 averaged Brent $82.49 and preliminary data for May 2024 $84.14
As you pointed out are they keeping a little back expecting the OP to go higher? also
if we had good numbers on gas produced each 1,000 bbl of oil produces ????? we could arrive at an Oil prduction number,remembering they Export and re inject,and use gas and flare .

Not ideal but Producing less for more cash good place to be while if it holds, to the next drilling campaign.and production does not go into free fall.
Give them time to study the down hole stuff.

[up just a little bit] 24/6/2024 08:56

Thank goodness it's not investment advice. Just for a moment I thought I'd better slit my wrists.

[xxnjr] 24/6/2024 08:32

Given above post, may be useful reminding ourselves what happened last year, as could help us judge how 2024 is progressing. The 2023 january trading update indicated 2023FY oil production guided to be in the range of (58-64) Kbopd.

Oil Production guidance (58-64) was maintained at March Results, the May AGM and the July Trading Update. Then “narrowed̶1; from (58-64) to (58-60) at Sept 2023/1H results. Then further downgraded to “marginally below (58-60)” at Nov 15th trading update. The 2024 Jan trading update, which one would have hoped would be pretty accurate, told us 2023 “full year working interest production averaged c.63 kboepd in 2023, including c.6 kboepd of Jubilee gas.”

Indicating approx 57K bopd oil production for the year of 2023.

Actual production as per 2023 full year results turned out to be only 55,800 bopd.
I’ll leave it to you to judge if 55.8 is “marginally below (58-60)”
And how 57,000, as indicated, become 55,800?

Guidance last year appears to have been more than somewhat behind the curve of reality!


(AFAIK the above numbers are correct.If you notice any errors kindly correct me. Not intended as investment advice. Do your own research!)

[xxnjr] 24/6/2024 08:27

Jubilee Tanker watch.

Continues to be not good I'm afraid. Another Jubilee offload appears to be starting today. This reinforces my last tanker observation "suggests we are kind of 90K, or even slightly under that. If that is the case, it's about 10K to 15K (gross) less than where we should be now".

tbh I was being generous last time. We should have been at over 105K now but seem to be at 90K, or a tad less. So kind of 15K bopd less than RD was projecting a mere 3 months ago. The 5 wells drilled this year appear to have made very little difference (so far).

I guess it's possible they could have been storing a bit of production in ullage (which would result in lower off-take than production) but so far (for the last 3 yrs at any rate) what comes out by tanker seems to broadly align with what was produced according to monthly production data.

[xxnjr] 21/6/2024 22:57

Ah! Thx for the shareholding list SS. Was surprised to see Safra in there with 15.32%.

[subsurface] 21/6/2024 13:01

Well done have a nice weekend

[up just a little bit] 21/6/2024 12:55

In that case I'll delete the post.

[subsurface] 21/6/2024 12:50

You may like to consider editing the last line ,up Just not very nice.

[subsurface] 21/6/2024 12:33

A few more possible shareholders here XX but not sure on the date/validity






Name Equities % Valuation
Aworet Samuel Dossou
243,635,633 16.72 % 121 M p
Bank J. Safra Sarasin AG (Investment Management)
223,169,000 15.32 % 111 M p
AzValor Asset Management SGIIC SA
204,667,245 14.05 % 102 M p
RWC Asset Management LLP
71,022,015 4.874 % 35 M p
IFG International Trust Co. Ltd.
58,838,104 4.038 % 29 M p
Summerhill Trust Co. (Isle of Man) Ltd.
58,838,104 4.038 % 29 M p
RWC Asset Advisors (US) LLC
55,303,250 3.795 % 28 M p
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
46,925,048 3.220 % 23 M p
Schroder Investment Management Ltd.
44,492,827 3.053 % 22 M p
Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP
39,509,703 2.711 % 20 M p

[xxnjr] 21/6/2024 12:21

Up just

Sadly filtered! for multiple one line posts that add nothing to the discussion!

[up just a little bit] 21/6/2024 12:10

Been a long week.

[up just a little bit] 21/6/2024 12:10

We can start with the "A" s or we can work backwards!