Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 18:21

Zingaro, if someone says they hold no shares in a company but ceaselessly post negative comments then they can expect to be challenged.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 18:20

Zingaro, if someone says they have filtered me but obviously read my posts then challenge them.

[zingaro] 04/7/2024 18:00

Up just. Stop baiting people. Stick to TLW / OIL facts and analysis

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 17:33

By the way your filter is broken.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 17:25

Xxnjr, I note you always say you're not an expert. Given that you have lost lots on TLW the advice you give is worth nothing.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 17:23

Xxnjr, are you a disgruntled previous share holder with lot's of time on your hands?

[xxnjr] 04/7/2024 16:48

Upjust,

(for others) Are you an algorithm scared of my posts? ;-)

[xxnjr] 04/7/2024 16:46

Just a modelling exercise, but if production stays flat at current levels there will be 17 gross jubilee cargos in 2H. If it's flat at 80K there would only be 15 cargoes in 2H. If it's flat at 73.5K in 2H there will only be 14 gross cargoes.

Therefore maintaining production at current levels is fairly important!

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 16:44

Badger, 60307. Thanks for your advice. I'm not taking it as the information from said analysis has netted me over 30% so far.Cheers!

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 16:41

If you don't like it move on.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 16:41

I've watched the hedge funds close their shorts. I've read the projections of debt reduction. I've seen the range of oil delivered which is within the guidance. I've seen what is to be drilled both where and when. It's all in the reports and meets expectations.

[badger36] 04/7/2024 16:08

As they say: "fools and their money are easily parted". Retail analysts are nothing but a bunch of well connected bluffers whom wealthy friends of mammy and daddy find a hole for these bluffers. Ex rugby schools mostly

[xxnjr] 04/7/2024 16:06

Hi Mccracken227,

Maybe a general loss of confidence in Rahul strategy? if you noticed my earlier 60301 it seems production is still lingering at, or below about 90K Jubilee (despite 5 new 2024 wells having been drilled). 2Q TEN an unknown quantity. 2Q Non-op an unknown quantity, since the company declined to update the numbers at 16th May AGM statement. Bit of uncertainty given guidance was reduced to lower end of range at AGM and bearing in mind the number of production downgrades that came through in second half of last year?

[xxnjr] 04/7/2024 15:44

Who on earth takes notice of retail analysts?

[badger36] 04/7/2024 15:29

Yes, most likely retail analysts hoping you buy from them on the other side of their glass wall. I pay NO attention to those fools

[mccracken227] 04/7/2024 15:23

Oil at $87 and this clinging on to 32 what is going on?

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 09:22

Seven out or ten analysts rate TLW as a buy at this price.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 09:20

The debt reduction taking place and the price of oil make TLW a buy at these prices. No doubt there will be some detractors who own no shares who have lost on TLW having failed to sell at previous highs who will post away to the contrary.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 09:17

Please note the link to the article posted by "zingaro" from the other thread is by a self confessed shorter as it states at the beginning of the article. In that light it is of significant note that professional shorts from hedge funds have all either closed or significantly reduced their positions.

[up just a little bit] 04/7/2024 08:23

Still within the guidance so no surprises.

[xxnjr] 04/7/2024 08:20

Thanks for posting both. I think that note, or an earlier note from the same people, was posted on LSE and here earlier in the year. You can't really fault their methodology on the production numbers. As to the conclusions they arrive at then I'd say that was open to interpretation.

We only have hard data to Dec 2023 as Petrocom (who provide the basic data) appear to have been asleep recently. That means we don't know if the GOR has risen further, or remains contained, as it has been for the last few years.

Simplistically, non-expertly speaking with Jubilee, oil production could be constrained by one, or a combination of 3 dominant factors


1. Not enough oil coming out of the wells (producibility).
2. Insufficient water injection reaching wells (voidage replacement).
3. High associated gas production (all of which is processed on the fpso) constraining the amount of gas (and hence oil) that can be produced when produced gas hits the ceiling of fpso gas processing capacity.

In DEC/23 assoc gas production was 241.53 mmscfd which is pretty close to the fpso ceiling, which I believe is now about 245 - 250 mmscfd. The thing is with Petrocom in silent/lazy mode, we don't know if the GOR is rising, or falling (as per Rahul's plan to re-pressurise the field with w/ing wells). What's been going on with w/inj has really been withheld from us. One might ask Why?! Not an expert, but one possibility (I guess) is some of the water isn't getting through from the inj well(s) to the producer(s) as insufficient pathway? Or is it merely a mechanical issue with the pumps performing below par intermittently?

So, that's water, and GOR. Leaving the 3rd possibility: recent wells just aren't good enough in the first place (producibility).

All one can say is shipping observations suggest Jan and Feb were about 90K, Mar was about 102K but that worryingly Apr/May/June have been about 90K or even slightly under 90K.

[up just a little bit] 03/7/2024 20:24

Another point to the detriment of the author is that the professional shorthers have ALL reduced or closed their short positions. What does that tell you.

[zingaro] 03/7/2024 20:23

subsurface: you posted this on the other thread but not on this. Hope you do not mind me posting it here (it seems very interesting):

Report posted on LSE confirms what you have been saying XX.

hope the oil price remains high

[up just a little bit] 03/7/2024 20:16

"The author has a short position in Tullow."That's a disclaimer aha ha ha ha.Kind of proves a point doesn't it.