Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[up just a little bit] 01/7/2024 09:24

Excellent old facts my man. You hold NO shares in tullow, just a grudge. You seem to have an inordinate amount of time on your hands each day trying to discredit the directors. Move on before it consumes you if it hasn't already.

[xxnjr] 01/7/2024 09:08

Deconstructing the above, basically
1Q group production as anticipated and TEN outperformed.
Reservoir properties and net pay are apparently “on prognosis” on the Jubilee underperforming wells, the GTC issue has apparently been “addressedR21; and the water injection issues apparently will be “optimisedR21;.
The company still has “conviction221; current Jubilee resource estimates are realistic.
4D seismic on Jubilee early next year will guide on future drilling locations.
Tullow hope to recommence drilling sometime next year


Expertly crafted and reassuring words from the CEO but if everything is so wonderful and likely to be sorted out

Why is full year guidance now crashing to the lower end of the range?
Given some wells are under performing and the lower guidance: Might not the reserve auditors take a different view from the conviction Mr Dhir expressed in his statement above?

[xxnjr] 01/7/2024 09:06

Moving on, FWIW this is what RD said on Ghana production

"“Recent performance. We’ve seen good performance on our drilling program. 3 Jubilee wells were brought on stream in 1Q and a further 2 wells we’re planning to bring onstream this quarter. Since the start of the year production efficiency has been very high, it's been tracking in the high 90s (percent). As indicated in the statement this morning, group production was in line with expectations in Q1 at about 66,000 bbls of oil equivalent per day.” I just want to flag with you that Jubilee is tracking lower than expected and TEN has been outperforming. For the year we are reiterating today our guidance of 62 to 69,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, but it's likely, we flag this, that we're going to come out towards the lower end of the guidance range. But importantly, we don't expect any changes to our group cash flow guidance, as the number of total liftings, the number of cargoes we sell in Ghana, remains unchanged.

Just a brief on jubilee. Production is lower than our expectations.It's really due to some of the new jubilee Wells having lower production compared to pre-drill expectations. Now Interestingly the net pay and reservoir properties are very much on prognosis but what we're seeing in some of the wells is the full impact of the water injection is not yet reaching these wells. So we are looking to see how we optimise the pressure support. That's going to be one of the drivers for guiding the production towards the lower end of the range. Also in April we had some temporary interruptions to water injection. This was caused by a problem with a gas turbine compressor. That's been addressed but this is likely to have again some impact in the short term.


You take a step back. Jubilee obviously is an excellent field. Our conviction around the resource remains. We have about 140 million barrels of 2P and almost over 100 million barrels of 2C. So it's a big resource that we still have to develop. What we are doing is, we're planning a 4D seismic campaign early next year. That's going to be ahead of the next drilling program and that new data will help us guide on the placement of the wells, as part of the next program, which we hope to see start sometime next year.

[xxnjr] 01/7/2024 09:02

Hello folks,

I've finally located and managed to review the CEO's AGM address which is here


One of the contentious things RD said was

"firstly you're going to start with safety and really there is nothing that's more important than the safety of our people and all those who work at our site and pleased to say that we continue to have strong safety performance across our operated assets"

No mention of recent events in Gabon.

According to TLW's Sustainability Report the principal values of the company are

AIM HIGH - OWN IT - BE TRUE

With all due respect I'd suggest the leadership of the company haven't exactly lived up to these values (so far) regarding Gabon.

[up just a little bit] 29/6/2024 21:45

For all the holders who are buying in there is money to be made. I have 32.9% from my first trade and am in again

[up just a little bit] 29/6/2024 21:43

Not a share owned between you, just hatred for the management. Move on is my advice. You should be aware shares go down as well as up. Did you not set stop losses?

[subsurface] 29/6/2024 13:33

London-listed Tullow Oil has agreed to buy Calima Energy's interest in the Namibia offshore PEL 90 license (Block 2813B) in the Orange Basin for $2 million plus bonuses that count add further $10 million.

Then later walked away,I dont know why they did not sell it?

[cashandcard] 29/6/2024 13:08

xxnjr,Although I understand why TLW may have needed to pull out of Namibia, I don't understand why they did not, at the least, wait a little longer to see the outcome of Graff/Venus, discovered not long after PEL90 was let go.It's astonishing, operators are not just announcing discoveries offshore Namibia, they are particularly large and some frankly enormous. With best in house tech and surveying, the strike rate is really high right now, although that will gradually falloff.As you say, BP-ENI owned Azule Energy and Rhino Resources will drill the multibillion barrel Sagittarius prospect. An absolute peach of a prospect, sitting just below and on trend with GALP/Sintana's huge Mopane oilfield.With Chevron now confirming the Northern Ocean rig contract was them, Sintana about to get busy again as they are junior partner via local affiliate in this well. I think Chevron will be looking to test the extension of Totals Mangetti discovery and possibly a native prospect within the southern portion of PEL90. I doubt they will be looking for a westerly extension of Mopane - such an extension would confirm it to be bigger than the huge Venus field and even bigger than GALP has alluded to - so I think it's far fetched.Cash

[xxnjr] 29/6/2024 12:49

According to Noble Drilling, Tullow paid $256K/month between Oct-2022 and Mar-2024, then $298K/month for April, May and part June for Noble Venturer. Rig now drilling for Kosmos in EG at an undisclosed rate. Then moving to Rhino Resources Nov-2024 at $410K/month to drill a huge prospect in Namibia.

I'd always given Rahul credit for negotiating that contract but I'd forgotten it was an existing contract originally signed in 2018, which was subsequently terminated early, then reactivated by Rahul



Tullow has secured the Maersk Venturer rig which is expected to commence drilling in February 2018. The rig will be used across the TEN and Jubilee fields and has been contracted for up to four years with favourable early termination provisions.

[up just a little bit] 29/6/2024 06:42

A good read for many different snap shots of the industry around the world. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Markets-Await-Inflation-Data-as-Oil-Prices-Continue-to-Rally.html

[up just a little bit] 28/6/2024 21:38

Thanks all.

[xxnjr] 28/6/2024 18:20

Thx nobull/SS

The rumours about Chevron taking that Namibia rig have now been confirmed by Chevron.

[subsurface] 28/6/2024 13:43

Me too nobull along with 20 followers!

[up just a little bit] 28/6/2024 13:18

Indeed nobull some interesting facts from xx but also a decided slant. Each to their own.

[nobull] 28/6/2024 12:52

xxnjr, I value your posts and opinions. Thank you.

[xxnjr] 28/6/2024 10:01

OTOH last year FCF was $170m on sales volume of 55.8 Kbopd
CAPEX was $380m

2024 CAPEX forecast is $250m as no rig in 2H

If 2023 and 2024 production are at similar levels then based on lower CAPEX, FCF this year could be $170m + $130m = $300m?

[up just a little bit] 28/6/2024 09:51

Can't quite believe how much time you spend on a bulletin board of a company you hold no shares in.A lot of angst.

[xxnjr] 28/6/2024 09:40

In Rahul's parallel universe it doesn't make any difference if we only hit lower end of guidance, as

"..... this does not impact Tullow's cash flow guidance as the total number of liftings expected from Ghana remains unchanged."

Whilst that may or may not turn out to be the actual outcome. What is the actual revenue hit from lower production?

Guidance range is 55/58/61 Kbopd.

bopd/days/annual bbls/OP/Revenue/Delta

55,000/366/20,130,000/$80/$1,610m/-$88m
58,000/366/21,228,000/$80/$1,698m/$0m
61,000/366/22,326,000/$80/$1,786m/+$88m

So there would appear to be a $176m revenue delta between lower and higher end of production guidance range. Less TAX, entitlements, hedging and other imponderables..... probably gets us to a $100m FCF variance, whether that shows up in 2024, or next year!

Rahul also floated the notion of $90 OP = +$100m FCF

But what will the OP have to be for remainder of year, to average $90 over 2024?

2023 1H brent OP ave about $83.50
Therefore OP will need to average about $96.50 in 2024 2H.
Is that likely? Who knows.

Either way. FCF guidance tends to be conservative. But ultimately actual production numbers do count.

[up just a little bit] 28/6/2024 07:26

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-and-oil-forecast-wti-bullish-upward-trendline-support-near-80-20-1441551

[badger36] 27/6/2024 15:52

They have sabotaged the future and will pay back the debt and shaft us

[xxnjr] 27/6/2024 15:39

Northern Ocean Ltd. (“NOL” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce a contract award for Deepsea Bollsta with a subsidiary of a major operator for work in Namibia. The contract duration is for one well estimated at 63 days and will likely commence in the fourth quarter of 2024.



The "major operator" is believed to be Chevron, in which case we'll soon know if TLW's old block hosts giant discoveries similar to Mopane and Venus.

[xxnjr] 26/6/2024 20:19

good evening dros1,

Appreciate your comments. I do give Rahul credit where it's due, for example

He didn't create the mess that Tullow found themselves in.
Costs have been kept firmly under control.
Uptime on FPSO's has increased to best in industry remarkably high percentages.
20 wells have been drilled very efficiently in Ghana at lower cost than before.

With all due respect, I don't give Rahul credit for reducing debt by $1bn, as $500m of that was already in the bag on the day he joined! See 2020 Half Year Report

"Proceeds of $500 million from Uganda transaction completion expected before year-end; portfolio sales still targeted to deliver proceeds of over $1 billion in aggregate albeit in a challenging external environment for asset sales and farm downs....."

As for FCF. Do you not think it's odd that FCF routinely beats the target even though production falls short? Beating a target that may have been set artificially low in the first place to facilitate beating same, in my eyes is not an achievement. It could just as easily be "expectation management".

I'll re-listen to RD's AGM statement at some point and de-construct any issues from my perspective.
Follow up post to come ;-)

[dros1] 26/6/2024 15:20

xxnjr thank you for your posts i really enjoy your imput but i think you must give raul bit of credit , fact is debt was reduced since he came in by over £1B and last year FCF of £170m was much higher than forecast.

[xxnjr] 26/6/2024 12:14

Not good. One only hopes that the long suffering population of Kenya somehow benefit in future, from currents events

"At least 160 wounded being treated in hospital. An official at Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi says medics are treating “160 people … some of them with soft tissue injuries, some of them with bullet wounds”, AFP reported.

Simon Kigondu, president of the Kenya Medical Association, said at least 13 people were killed in Tuesday’s protests, adding that he had never seen “such level of violence against unarmed people”....."