Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 13/6/2024 09:44

If debt has increased then thats maybe why they want to end the drilling programe to keep costs down when we need to be drilling more to maintain production.

A few years away, lots of reports say world faces staggering oil glut by 2030

[xxnjr] 13/6/2024 08:54

Jubilee Tanker watch.

Not good I'm afraid. One offload appears to be starting today. Average of last 3 suggests we are kind of 90K, or even slightly under that. If that is the case, it's about 10K to 15K (gross) less than where we should be now, according to graph on slide 17 of March results presentation.

The rig is still drilling the last well, a water injector.

[xxnjr] 12/6/2024 18:45

To be fair Dorothy only temporarily stepped in when McDade was 'let go'. OK, leading up to that moment, the entire BOD (including Dorothy) had been asleep. But she was only really a caretaker stand in, until a permanent CEO was selected. That person being Rahul. And his brief was to sort out the mess. The current share price says the market is not impressed with our CEO's performance. Nobody, absolutely nobody, would have believed at the time of Rahul's appointment that almost one and a half thousand days later the share price would be more or less the same!

[alfiex] 12/6/2024 12:27

Agree he really has not performed well at all, not sure if Dorothy did a better job ;)

[badger36] 12/6/2024 11:00

He's becoming a liability if not a fifth column Valuable assets spurned and nothing but depleted market cap

[xxnjr] 12/6/2024 10:15

Dhir needs to go. Been CEO for 1,442 days now.
Yes he's done some good work with FPSO Uptime, drilling efficiency, keeping costs under control.

But strategically he's been a disaster. Too many bad decisions. Too much concentration on Ghana. Spent a lot of money in Ghana on Rigs, Drilling, New Infrastructure but it's looking like promised production uplift isn't coming through.

Our rate of reduction in debt has been much slower than E&P peers.

He hasn't done anything for shareholders. The share price is basically same as 1,442 days ago. Despite that he get's millions of options (admittably some in lieu of compensation) for what is really below par performance.

If you only judge him by his "I'm happy to share Jubilee is now producing "107K", "105K" "over 100K"" comments then the only conclusion I've arrived at, is his words cannot be relied upon.

Don't understand why he hasn't been fired!

[badger36] 12/6/2024 09:40

Sandbagging and diversion We have had not one bit of positive news For an oil exploration company, it's now a debt servicing operation with not one drilling success in years. All the time the executives are milking it

[subsurface] 11/6/2024 10:11

Another Rahul problem: Deal making

Rahul is a fantastic Deal maker for himself!

[xxnjr] 11/6/2024 09:27

ctc1
yes agree but it shouldn't dominate communications to the extent that it does here.

[xxnjr] 11/6/2024 09:26

Another Rahul problem: Deal making

CNE's share are up 15% this morning on likelihood of receiving a contingent payment on an asset they sold. Every asset CNE sold recently has resulted in contingent payments being received. They have been showered in contingent payments over the last 2 to 3 yrs, or so.

Nothing Rahul has sold has resulted in a contingent payment. Even in Gabon where truckloads of oil have been discovered on our sold asset; no contingent payments received (so far) as there is no contingent consideration for new discoveries in Rahul's deal.

[ctc1] 11/6/2024 09:23

To get into Kenya industrial development you really need to be very on top of ESG these days. imo

[xxnjr] 11/6/2024 08:44

Just had a look at Afentra's presentation slides by our former CEO (McDade). This is not a recommendation to buy their shares whatsoever. But McDade's slides do highlight how "Fk'in" useless our CEO is in terms of material to present. There's not a single Afentra slide devoted to ESG, Shared Prosperity, Building Trust, Communities and all the rubbish Rahul spends far too much time talking about. Just slides about the assets, operations, production upside and their "smart deal making".

By contrast Rahul only spent 2 mins talking about our most important asset Jubilee in his pre-Q&A talk on the last results call. This is a copy of an email I sent TLW IR at the time

"I feel Rahul's pre-Q&A presentation completely missed the mark. In my view it was complacent, self congratulatory and padded out with irrelevant time wasting. This is what our CEO spoke about

Slide 4 4 mins (Africa)

Slide 5 4 mins (Operational Excellence)

Slide 14 3 mins (Operational Excellence)

Slide 15 3.5 mins (Trusted Partner)

Sub total 14.5 mins

Slide 16 4 mins (Reserves)

Slide 17 2 mins (Jub)

Slide 18 2 mins (TEN)

Slide 19 2 mins (Non-op)

Slide 21 1 min (wrap up)

Sub total 11 mins
Total time 26 mins

What actually was req'd was an explanation of Jub w/inj issues

what went wrong.
what we did to fix it.
and why we are 100% confident it won't re-occur.

only 2 of 26 mins was devoted to our most important asset Jubilee with no explanation of water injection issue, other than it's 'solved' which the company told us once before except that it wasn't.

In my view this is a complete communications failure. An evident reluctance to discuss the issue in detail means investors have low or zero confidence in your projections with the result being the Share price is where it is today.

Please ensure Mr Dhir reads this feedback. He does need to address this vital issue."

Received a courteous reply. But still in the dark regarding w/inj.

[xxnjr] 11/6/2024 00:07

Repaid two tranches on the 25's last year mcs

$166.50m on 19/6/25 at a good discount (65%) very good deal!
$140.93m on 20/12/2023 at (92%).
Total 25's repaid $307.43m for annual interest saving of $21.52m going forwards.

However interest on the $130m Glencore will be about $20m/yr. Despite less debt on the 2025's remaining, the annual interest repayable stays more or less the same.

Bonds now trading at about 96%.

More likely Tullow will be further relying on the $270m available under the Glencore facility to pay off an equal amount of the 2025's that mature on 1/3/2025. Plus another $220m from cash resources.

Cash and cash equivalents stood at $500m at year end. $100m of that has gone on the 26's recent repay. 1H tends to be when the tax bills land, so FCF 2H weighted. Therefore production needs to stay up in 2H.

Agree nobody holds Rahul to account. It is not what he tells us. It is what he doesn't tell us!

[mcsean2164] 10/6/2024 20:33

In other words: repaid 7% debt by taking out a loan at 15%

I remember they got a discount when buying back, would be great if they paid off the 15% loan amount because it's crazy.

It seems nobody is holding Rahul to account.

[up just a little bit] 10/6/2024 17:05

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-and-oil-forecast-wti-at-75-76-more-upside-ahead-or-sell-off-1436830

[up just a little bit] 10/6/2024 16:36

Brent up today and TLW up 1.97%.

[xxnjr] 10/6/2024 16:24

Apologies. Going down memory lane today. Another start up by former TLW directors, on an old 'high impact' TLW block, which apparently today now holds 7 billion barrels potential and could host 6 major FPSO developments.....!



Their share price?...... 0.2p

[xxnjr] 10/6/2024 15:32

Good point, that may explain it SS. By the way, if any of you would like to see our former CEO (Mr Paul McDade) in full flight, he's doing what our current CEO said he would do, but so far has failed to deliver. That is, to give a Capital Markets type presentation on upside potential. It's tomorrow, Tuesday 11 June 2024 10:30 BST

[subsurface] 10/6/2024 14:31

Dont forget Tullow / Ghana Tax arbitration should be concluded circa September.

[xxnjr] 10/6/2024 14:04

Let's hope so. There is usually a trading update 2nd week of July. However looking in events



"2024 Half Year Results" are pencilled in for 7th August 2024. About a month earlier than last year. Unless by that, they mean trading update?

[up just a little bit] 10/6/2024 13:34

Xxnjr, still a good buy at this price.

[xxnjr] 10/6/2024 13:26

have found it in the annual report

"On 13 November 2023, Tullow announced that it had entered into a $400 million secured notes facility agreement maturing in November 2028 (Secured Notes Facility) with Glencore Energy UK Limited (Glencore). The Secured Notes Facility is available for 18 months and proceeds are available for liability management of the 2025 Notes. The interest on the Secured Notes Facility will be Term Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 10% on drawn amounts....."

"On 20 December, the Group repurchased $141 million nominal value of 2025 Notes for $130 million cash consideration through a Modified Dutch Auction. The cash consideration was funded through an equivalent drawdown under the Secured Notes Facility. A gain on early bond buyback of $10 million is recognised as other income in the income statement....."

In other words: repaid 7% debt by taking out a loan at 15%

[up just a little bit] 10/6/2024 12:46

If you are in below 30 or there abouts then you are in a good position going forward.

[xxnjr] 10/6/2024 12:41

mcs2164,

It arose when they repaid back some of the 2025 notes last december

[up just a little bit] 10/6/2024 12:35

I made a "better informed decision" when I bought in at 29.3.