Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 18/6/2024 13:26

You've bought another position, looking for a bounce?

[up just a little bit] 18/6/2024 11:32

Over the last week Brent has risen from just over 81 to 84 today.

[rossifumi] 18/6/2024 10:10

Brent dropping this should probably go up now! Lol

[alfiex] 17/6/2024 16:58

Going back to death by a thousand cuts :(

[xxnjr] 17/6/2024 08:44

Rig for KOS/EG has just left Ghana waters (as it was unloading off Takoradi for a few days)

[xxnjr] 16/6/2024 09:27

Maybe useful



"4D (3D-Time Lapse) Seismic Surveys
4D seismic survey is a three-dimensional (3D) seismic data acquired at different times over the same area to assess changes in a producing hydrocarbon reservoir with time. Changes may be observed in fluid movement and saturation, pressure, and temperature.

The oil and gas industry uses 3D-time-lapse seismic survey to monitor the way fluids flow through a reservoir during production, by carrying out a baseline (pre-production) seismic survey (Figure 3.24) and then repeat surveys over the production lifetime of the reservoir (Figure 3.25). When 3D surveys are repeated in this way, they are often referred to as 4D seismic....."

[xxnjr] 16/6/2024 09:04

SS - Another way to look at it is they are not completely on top of what they are doing! Or are being unrealistic in what they tell us. You would have thought that with all the production data amassed over the years wells/reservoir would be reasonably predictable. But it seems not.

I mean in a virgin frontier exploration province like Namibia, 82% of high impact basin opening exploration wells have been successful and 100% of appraisal wells have been successful.

Here.

2 of TEN 'development' wells(40%) found sulphur and water. 3 wells(the other 60%)have under performed.
Of the 15 JUB wells, the early ones seem to have performed much better than the latest ones, some of which are also apparently under performing.

This (as a non expert opinion) may suggest their seismic/reservoir modelling is a bit out of date, or just out. It's good to see they are apparently planning new 4D seismic. Whether that will recover the situation remains to be seen.

[subsurface] 16/6/2024 01:53

Thanks XX for putting it together

can view against Average yearly Oil price also approx



2021 $70.86

2022 $100.93

2023 $82.49

2024 $83 on going

1976 to 2004 was not so good!

Tend to think of Jubliee and Ten in the context of what they are not producing and could be???

[xxnjr] 15/6/2024 23:23

So, the rig has departed after 1,165 days drilling. Started drilling 6/04/2021. What has been accomplished?

15 Jubilee Wells Drilled + 1 Workover/completion
5 TEN wells Drilled
All drilled very efficiently.

Jubilee Oil Production by year

2021: 74,892
2022: 83,627
2023: 83,409
2024YTD: probably about 91,750 as a guesstimate

TEN Oil Production

2021: 32,817
2022: 23,597
2023: 18,401
2024YTD: probably about 17,900 ditto

Ghana 2021: 108,000
Ghana 2022: 107,224
Ghana 2023: 101,810
2024YTD: probably about 109,650 ditto

Above/below Numbers approx.

Rig probably cost about $295m Gross? A bargain. Next time will probably cost double?
Plus supply ships and subsea fabrication/installation etc etc costs.

Conclusion

Ghana fields are now high maintenance!
2023 was a bad year. Despite the latest annual report suggesting production had apparently gone up!
(Presumably only if you include gas that wasn't there the year before???!!!!)
2024 YTD Gross: JUB about 8K below annual guidance? TEN about 1.5K above? Just guesstimates.

Above could contain errors. Above not intended to be investment advice. DYOR!

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 17:33

The drillship has this afternoon left Jubilee and would seem to be on it's way to the next assignment in Equatorial Guinea.

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 16:46

Sad to see you go mcsean2164. There won't be any of us left at this rate! I can perfectly understand your decision and sorry it came to that. Wishing you all the best for the future mcs2164. You will be missed.

[subsurface] 14/6/2024 16:44

Same to you Mcsean good luck

[mcsean2164] 14/6/2024 16:26

xxjnr,

Just sold the rest. TLW is not the company I invested in, I've lost a lot of money but that's it done.

Uganda, in particular, is a conuntry I don't want to have anything to do with.

Thanks to you, booty and others for your really helpful insights over the years and best of luck in your market adventures.

[up just a little bit] 14/6/2024 14:13

I think it's going to be range bound for a bit. 39p tops until news.

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 14:05

MCS

well done for selling a few. looking ahead with the current issues in Ghana, 40p might be a hard nut to crack. Unless something positive/unexpected happens elsewhere.....

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 14:01

This Petrocom 2024 Report is a bit more forward looking


Will have another gander but IIRC

They are planning 4D seismic on TEN (although nothing mentioned in that respect for Jubilee 2024)

Jubilee has a planned shut down in 2025

Applied for exploration permit (as opposed to ILX) in current acreage.
(not sure if thats significant as everywhere within license is ILX'able)

edit: Unless that means drilling deeper into the Albian? Maybe not. who knows!

[subsurface] 14/6/2024 13:48

Thanks XX was surprised they have been taking gas from Nigeria there was a spat over payments a few years ago and they closed off supply to Ghana.

[mcsean2164] 14/6/2024 13:47

oil back up and tullow back down.... I sold some at 38p recently. Wish I'd sold the lot.

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 13:22

further snippets from PIAC Report

"Production from the TEN field witnessed a sharp decline from 2020 to 2023 due mainly to subsurface challenges. Thus, the decline of total oil production in Ghana is mainly attributable to the rapid unexpected production decline of the TEN field.

The Committee calls on the TEN Field partners to as a matter of urgency fix the Field’s subsurface challenges to restore production levels....."

"Jubilee South-East (JSE) Project
The Jubilee South-East project was completed following the successful drilling of wells and installation of subsea infrastructure in the Mahogany area within the Greater Jubilee Field. About 30,000 barrels of oil have been added to the existing daily Jubilee production to ensure a sustained target production above 100,000 barrels per day....."

"Jubilee Field Production and Operations
On the Jubilee Field, two new wells J61-P and J63-P came online in July 2023 to augment the overall field production. The J66-P well was brought online in September 2023 to complete the Jubilee southeast project expansion work scope which resulted in a peak production rate of 100,950.60 bbl/d.
There was a decrease in gas export mainly due to process upsets and maintenance activities carried out at the Ghana National Gas Limited Company (GNGLC) plant from March to April 2023. Subsequently, gas export resumed, and export rates were back to normal....."

"TEN Field Production and Operations
The TEN Field, like the Jubilee Field, is an associated gas field. The Field experienced a low production rate in July 2023 mainly due to a planned shutdown maintenance activity work-scope carried out from the 1st to the 14th of July 2023. This was focused on the modification of the multi-functional (MF) separator to allow the routing of produced gas from the MF separator to join the processing stream via the low- pressure gas compression (LPGC) system. Following this, production gradually increased, however, it could not reach the optimal forecast threshold due to riser 20 blockage downstream of the riser-base. For that reason, Nt03-P well could not be brought online....."

"In July 2023, two new wells, J61-P and J63-P, came online to augment the overall Jubilee field production. The J66-P well was brought online in September 2023 to complete the Jubilee southeast project expansion work scope which resulted in a peak production rate of 100,950.60 bbl/d. As shown in Figure 2, the Jubilee Field contributed about 63 percent of the total output. However, production on the Field decreased by 0.26 percent from the 2022 output of 30,523,813 bbls to 30,444,217 bbls in 2023.

Similarly, the TEN Field’s production declined by 22 percent from 8,612,822 bbls in 2022 to 6,716,278 bbls in 2023 due to technical challenges on the Enyenra and Ntomme reservoirs.....

The lowest TEN production recorded in July was mainly due to a planned 14-day shutdown maintenance activity carried out from 1st to 14th of July. This was focused on the modification of the multi-functional separator (MF) to allow the routing of produced gas from the MF separator to join the processing stream via the low-pressure gas compression (LPGC) system. Production gradually picked up after the shutdown but could not reach the optimal forecast threshold due to Riser 20 blockage downstream of the Riser base. For that reason, Nt03-P well could not be brought online."

"Costs
Jubilee cost incurred by the partners for 2023 which stood at US$878.88 million, increasing by 37.24 percent compared with that of 2022 (US$640.41 million). Development cost component witnessed an increase of 66.06 percent. According to GNPC, development cost was significantly influenced by Drillex and Subsea costs of US$405.87 million and US$211.59 million respectively.

Total TEN cost incurred by the partners for the year was US$402.82 million and the GNPC component represents 3.06 percent of total TEN production and development costs. The total TEN cost for 2023 was 25.24 percent lower than that of 2022 of US$538.83 million.

Production cost was driven by Operations and Management Contractor cost, Business Management and Assurance, Logistics and Materials costs while Development costs on the other hand was largely influenced by FPSO Charter, Drillex and Subsea costs....."

[xxnjr] 14/6/2024 13:12

SS - Not sure how it works, but it seems TLW deliver/sell gas to GNPC, who either transfer, or sell it to GNGLC (who tend to forget to pay GNPC on time!). This what the latest PIAC report says

"The Ghana National Gas Limited Company (GNGLC) received a total volume of 35,690.20 MMSCF of raw gas from the Jubilee and TEN Fields from the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) in 2023, as compared to 39,663 MMSCF in 2022. Raw gas received by GNGLC was processed into Lean Gas, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and Condensates. The GNGLC received US$271,493,365.62 as payments from the sale of LPG, Lean Gas, and Stabilised Condensates produced in 2023.
Observation
• GNGLC’s indebtedness to GNPC continues to rise despite the use of the Cash Waterfall Mechanism to address the legacy debts. This trend, if not mitigated, could impair the operational viability of GNGLC....."

[subsurface] 14/6/2024 10:52

Ghana announces three weeks of power cuts !!! perhaps focus minds.

Ghana's state-owned electricity company has announced a three-week interruption in power supply due to a reduction in gas supply from Nigeria.

[subsurface] 13/6/2024 23:35

Uganda

Tullow contingent payments a step closer,Wonder if they will cash that in?

Standard Bank to Move Forward With Funding $5-Billion African Oil Pipeline