Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 05/1/2024 11:57

Thanks for your reply mcs. Without any knowledge of the matter I had presumed that world conventional oil production had declined at the expense of shale. But as you say that doesn't seem to have been the case. Another graph here shows regional split



UK SMMT Dec Car Registrations show BEV's going into reverse last month perhaps indicating your average joe is falling out of love of prospect of buying a BEV. Maybe just a UK thing as Gov here not doing much to stimulate BEV take up. I won't be buying one until solid state batteries materialise assuming I'm still alive then ;-)

[mcsean2164] 05/1/2024 09:52

xxjnr,

I don't think anyone would argue that way.



US went into decline in the 80s and only started to reverse the trend around 2010.

I doubt there would have been an Iraq war if fracking came online in the 90s

[adrian j boris] 04/1/2024 19:18

Iain Gilbert
Sharecast News

04 Jan, 2024 16:48 04 Jan, 2024 16:48

Broker tips: JD Sports, Tullow Oil, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Pharos Energy


Shore Capital has placed its 'buy' rating on JD Sports under review after the high street retailer warned on sales and gross margins on Thursday.

As a result of milder autumn weather and heavier discounting over the peak holiday shopping season, full-year gross margins are expected to be slightly lower than last year, leading the company to lower its adjusted pre-tax profit guidance for the 12 months to 3 February to £915-935m, from £1.04bn at the half-year stage.

Constant currency organic revenue growth was just 6% in the 22 weeks to 30 December, down from 12% in the first half. For the full year, organic revenue growth is expected to come in at 8%.

"At the midpoint, this marks a notable 15% cut to our FY24 forecast on a stock where the market was not showing strong confidence in consensus expectations (11% cut to consensus)," Shore Capital said. "The group speak to 'good progress' against its five-year strategic plan, but the market has taken its toll on the share price with this news," the broker said, with the stock down 23% in afternoon trade at 119.35p.

Shore Capital said it still sees "a lot to like in JD", not least its balance sheet, but noted that confidence in earnings estimates was a pre-condition of a positive equity case.

Jefferies has downgraded its ratings for UK-listed oil and gas peers Tullow Oil, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, and Pharos Energy as part of its review of the sector on Thursday.
Next lifts guidance after better-than-expected Xmas sales
Landore Resources announces equity fundraise, CEO exit
Topps Tiles first-quarter LFL sales fall 7.1%
Inspiration Healthcare buys US firm Airon for $2.5m
JD Sports delivers profit warning as peak trading underwhelms

"Bottom-up review of International E&P operational delivery, shareholder returns, growth strategy, and executive management tenure allows us to establish the stocks we see as having the strategic vision, capability, and capital to deliver market-beating equity returns in the future," Jefferies said in a research note.

However, the broker reviewed its recommendations for those stocks where it sees growth and returns as "constrained".

Tullow Oil was now rated 'underperform', while EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, and Pharos Energy were rated 'hold', with target prices on all being slashed by 20% to 30%.

"EnQuest (cut to 'hold') has delivered production to guidance in both 2022 and 2023 but on declining volumes and, overall the stock is down with no direct shareholder return to offset," Jefferies said.

"Onshore Egypt, growth for both Capricorn Energy and Pharos Energy is restricted by receivables (cut to 'hold') and offshore Ghana, Tullow Oil growth is limited as excess capital is used to deleverage, rather than growth (cut to 'underperform')."

[xxnjr] 04/1/2024 14:08

Mcs here's another US Shale deal announced today. As far as US oil is concerned shale oil is the gift that keeps on giving and will do for years. One could also argue (maybe) that conventional declined as a consequence of investment being redirected from conventional to shale oil?

[xxnjr] 04/1/2024 14:03

His profit further increased by £8K whilst I typed the above!

[xxnjr] 04/1/2024 14:01

Well Mr Roald Goethe (Director) is up by £104K on £582K purchases of the last 6 months at current price. He's happy but agree share price recovery dismal. It's the debt over hang. Rahul's over positive spin which inevitably tends to result in subsequent disappointment. Clarification on water injection needed. Ghana court case. Ghana sovereign debt issues. etc etc. Only +ve is net debt is reducing and hopefully at an accelerating rate.

[badger36] 04/1/2024 13:39

I've seen directors buying and buying but it does nothing. OPKO directors and CEO Philip Frost has spent billions and still buying and stock has collapsed from 19 to 1.25 as I type Tullow need positive drilling results

[mcsean2164] 04/1/2024 10:40

Xxjnr,

They've been very wrong because of the development of fracking but they did okay as regards conventional. I think it's interesting as the short term EIA is predicting a plateau.

Anyway, time will tell I guess.

[zhenya21] 04/1/2024 08:32

Down graded

[mcsean2164] 03/1/2024 16:23

Interesting take here.



Looks like the Permian miracle is coming to a close. There needs to be a rapid Ev transition or 2030 will present a problem if the charts are correct. In fairness to David Coyne he's been very conservative with doomers complaining for years that collapse is imminent but it looks like 2030 will be a big year for oil..

[nicbw01] 03/1/2024 13:12

Director has spent £200k in last month on these at 38.5p. To me that is a buy signal.

[badger36] 03/1/2024 12:15

Wow. This is pretty painful start to 2024

[xxnjr] 02/1/2024 11:28

not 50K.

200K

Aggregated information
Aggregated volume 200,000
Aggregated Price $76,595
Date of the transaction 28/12/2023

these are in addition to other recent and previous purchases by same D.

[mirabeau] 02/1/2024 10:04

50k director buy

[badger36] 02/1/2024 09:22

With this volume it's just going to inch either way. Who'd have thought 40 cents is resistance

[inv] 02/1/2024 08:52

£1 in 2024

[xxnjr] 29/12/2023 23:49

he's spent about £0.5m in the last 6 months adding shares and is about £127,000 up on those purchases.

Final 2023 Jubilee cargo just departed suggesting recent output back up to 95K or thereabouts.

[subsurface] 29/12/2023 12:04

Director/PDMR Shareholding New RNS issued Roald Goethe adds more!

[xxnjr] 24/12/2023 09:40

ref pel90 Namibia it was handed back early 2022 afaics.

In 2022 Rahul received a 4.8% bonus out of a possible 10% for "Unlocking Value" meaning he received 4.8% of £2.37m = £113,750 bonus just for that category. Strangely there is no mention of Namibia in the calculation rationale for "Unlocking Value"

"Progress in 2022 against the 6 critical actions:
1. Deliver Kenya License extension and farm-down: Engagements to secure a strategic partner for the development project in Kenya are ongoing
2. Resolve GRA exposure: Tullow continues to engage with the Government of Ghana, including the GRA, with the aim of resolving these disputes on a mutually acceptable basis
3. Deliver O&M transformation: Successful transition to self-operate on the Jubilee FPSO in July 2022
4. Implement Ghana gas commercialisation plan: An Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19bcf of Jubilee gas was executed in December 2022
5. Complete Ghana pre-emption: Deal completed in March 2022
6. Optimise non-op and exploration portfolio: Targeted resource addition achieved through securing new licences in Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire and portfolio prospect maturation."

ref 4. above the gas was sold at 50 cents/mmbtu!

"Gas Commercialisation
In December 2022, an Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf gross of Jubilee gas was executed, utilising the price for TEN associated gas referenced in the 2017 TEN Gas Sales Agreement which was $50c/mmbtu. The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, adding c.7 kboepd net production during the first half of the year. Further gas export will be contingent on reaching agreement on acceptable commercial terms for
future volumes."

ref ghana tanker cargos

none of them go through Suez Canal. They generally go NW to Europe/Canada/USA or round southern Africa to SE Asia and very occasionally W to Brazil.

[subsurface] 24/12/2023 02:58

Should apply the Tullow Mantra Every Dollar counts when talking of renumeration.
I dont know why they did not sell the interest in Namibia PEL90,they just walked away as far as I can see.


I also note that Glencore will be involved in Tullow, Oil marketing as per the loan agreement facility Roald Goethe Ex Trafiguria Oil trader,all worth doing some research and if its a positive for Tullow?

Ten good they managed an offload. shipping generally is under pressure


Also Iran making threats to close the Med though not clear how this could be done.
dont know any of this impacts on shipping arrival times but Tullow shipments have a clear path to Europe.

kenya June 2023 Report
Pertamina - Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Affairs, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, on Friday, June 23, announced plans to set up an oil refinery in Kenya.


Even Santa is feeling the pinch!



Best wishes to all for a happy Christmas and New year!

[xxnjr] 23/12/2023 23:40

It's complicated. For 2023 the CEO bonus is calculated according to actual performance versus targets in various categories "TIP Award for Rahul Dhir with a maximum opportunity of 400% of salary based on: Safety (7.5%), Financial Performance (5.0%), Production (10.0%), Business Plan Implementation (7.5%), Sustainability (5.0%), Unlocking Value (10.0%), Leadership Effectiveness (5.0%) and Relative TSR (50%) for the 2021-2023 performance period."

RD's base salary for 2023 is about £614,000
which means if everything went perfectly his bonus could potentially be 4X of base, or £2.45m

In 2022 the performance category weightings were the same as for 2023 and last year RD only achieved 30% out of a possible 100% score, where the opportunity 4X base salary = £2.37m

meaning his bonus was only 30% of the maximum 4X opportunity
or 30% of £2.37m = £711,000

the main miss in 2022 was on total shareholder return (TSR) versus the comparator group which accounted for 50% of the bonus weighting.

For 2023 bonus; TSR (50% weighting again) is calculated over a 3 yr period 2021 to 2023, and over that period to date share price performance of comparator group without dividends has been

Africa Oil +124%
Capricorn -79% (but returned 100's of millions of cash)
Energean +39%
Enquest +36%
Harbour Energy -20%
Kosmos Energy +229%
Pharos Energy +21.6%
Seplat Energy +92.3%
BW Energy $650m -35%
Diversified Energy $1.1bn -52%
Maurem et Prom $735m +253%

Some of the above pay dividends which will increase their TSR's.

Over the same 3 yr period TLW TSR has been + 33.7%

Gut feel if you include divi's/returned cash/buy backs we may have underperformed most with the exception of Diversified Energy and BW Energy. Both of which are newly into the comparator group! And Harbour Energy.

Don't think it's fair to have BW Energy in the comparator group as it was newly delisted from it's parent and will be bringing new fields online from scratch which entails a lot of CAPEX relative to existing revenue.

As for Diversified Energy words fail me. Why is that there? Nothing in common with Tullow.

Despite all that TSR 50% of the bonus may be another miss this year.

In fact since Rahul arrived TSR pay outs have missed 'trigger' every year meaning no pay out under that category.

If like me you didn't/don't understand any of this maybe familiarise yourself with TIP and LTIP awards to our executive officers as laid out in the Annual Reports?

One thing that appears to be a mystery. Although we know the weightings each category has in determining the bonus - we don't in advance know what the targets set for each category are. We only learn about them when the annual report for that year is published afaics. Strange.

Apologies for all of above but if the share price is going nowhere as the year comes to a close I begin to wonder if our execs are overpaid! We'll find out when they publish the next Annual Report.

[xxnjr] 23/12/2023 13:18

Ah there's a comparator group (mcap at time of AGM)

These were thrown out for this year

Aker BP $15.9bn
APA $11.2bn
DNO $940m
Genel Energy $385m
Santos $15.4bn

These came in for this year (Maybe the aspiration is to get smaller?)

BW Energy $650m
Diversified Energy $1.1bn (why? it's rust belt oil wells churning out 10 bbls/well)
Maurel et Prom $735m


Meaning the comparator group is now
(2023 ytd share price performance %)

Africa Oil +5.3%
Capricorn -80.1% (CNE also returned a lot of cash 100's of £millions)
Energean -19.3%
Enquest -29.5%
Harbour Energy -6.2%
Kosmos Energy -8.7%
Pharos Energy -2.6%
Seplat Energy +21.1%
BW Energy $650m -26.1%
Diversified Energy $1.1bn -53%
Maurem et Prom $735m +53%

Hmmmm! TLW 2023 YTD +6%
Crikey! Based on that looks like Rahul will get a TSR award for 2023.

But reading further the TSR element is based on "The current CEO is eligible to receive a TIP award, subject to performance, for 2023 (for the 2021-23 period)"

Hmmm! is that a rolling 3 yr period and how do they adjust that for the outgoing or incoming companies? It's more complicated than I thought. Thats it for now. Time for a bike ride :-)

[xxnjr] 23/12/2023 12:55

Our CEO's bonus for this year aiui will be formulated under the old TIP rather than the new LTIP agreed at last AGM iirc. Dunno much about either but will have a look sometime. I imagine there will be various comparative Total Shareholder Return (TSR) targets and some soft targets like

Only using 1 tea spoon of Sugar, not 2 in your coffee
Riding a bicycle to work, not using underground.

etc etc that guarantee some sort of bonus even if TSR is negative!

More to follow in time.

[xxnjr] 23/12/2023 12:14

Deal or no deal?

Little old Maurel et Prom (about 25K net boepd and one of our partners in Gabon)
are in the process of acquiring Assala Energy Gabon (about 45K net boepd) from Carlyle Energy.

YTD stock performance

TLW: + 6%
MetP: + 53.7% (on a deal)

[xxnjr] 22/12/2023 10:13

Deal or no deal?

5 day stock performance

TLW: + 7.7% (no deal)
CNE: + 14.4% (on a deal)
ENQ: + 36.0% (on a deal)
HBR: + 37.0% (on a deal)