Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[kulvinder] 31/1/2024 16:50

As usual just keeps dropping, what a sh*the share this is....there had my rant for the day.

[xxnjr] 31/1/2024 14:30

Hey! @bootycall,

I believe the TEN FPSO lease has a purchase option that will kick in sometime April 2024. Given the priority to pay down debt, it's probably safe to assume the company will be extending the lease at that time. The nature and scope of that extension probably in part depends of whatever an agreed future Plan of Development entails. Lower lease costs may arrive sooner than two years!

Jubilee Production :-

1 77,485
2 71,194
3 67,921
4 66,590
5 68,995
6 82,521
7 89,052
8 97,964
9 100,951
10 96,223
11 91,458
12 89,624
Full Year 2023 83,409 bopd

Reading between the tea leaves. The way I see it we are kind of at 90K now (based on recent tanker movements), the new well will take us to say 100K, the 2 new injectors will help mitigate decline, restored water pressure will mitigate decline (or even increase production a bit) and then the remaining 2 producer wells will hopefully provide a buffer to get us to the next wells in 2025 with the new rig. I imagine those will be drilled in the second half of 2025.

On TEN there are apparently some oil opportunities. Maybe an initial single well to test the waters so to speak? Well anyway let's see what they say on results call about TEN oil and gas development!

[bootycall] 31/1/2024 12:30

Well done @xxnjr . Now we have conformation that production recovered in December (post building up reservoir pressure with the water injectors online) to slightly under the average guided forecast for the year of gross 100kbpd for Jubilee. This is without any of the five wells being put onto production. That is proof, if ever we needed it, that the bears do not have a clue. Remember the analyst that claimed our gross production would fall to 80kbpd from natural decline this year. As i have pointed out previously, historically when some new well locations are put on stream they may not necessarily show much of a decline curve in the first few years. This was true of several wells in the main field that were originally put on stream at 15-17kbpd. Rahul, is not making it easy for shareholders to cope with bear raids on this share.
Lastly , one for you @xxnjr. You may be surprised what costs Tullow will be incurring on their Ten lease after expiry of the original lease. You may recall some analyst innocently (sic) suggested that this might increase. That, IMO, is very far from the truth. The current lease payments change materially in two years time. I will leave you to work out why most of the analysts have completely miscalculated their unit operating costs in the future on Ten. If you are a holder, I think you will be very pleased :) Booty

[badger36] 30/1/2024 08:41

So much for the market being forward priced

[subsurface] 30/1/2024 08:25

Saudi Arabia: Aramco receives directive to maintain MSC at 12 MMBD
30th Jan 2024
Aramco has announced that it has received a directive from the Ministry of Energy to maintain its Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) at 12 million barrels per day (MMBD), and not to continue increasing MSC to 13 MMBD.

[badger36] 29/1/2024 09:18

When your management sucks and keeps on diluting it's time to revolt on these greedy and self enriching executives

[s34icknote] 29/1/2024 08:21

Oil going up Tankers in fire and Jordan strike all adding to price of oil !

[mikezen] 27/1/2024 13:24

Well at least the management are getting a dividend in a round about way. Well deserved id say. Tounge massively in cheek

[kulvinder] 27/1/2024 08:48

Thunders, yes you may be right, having read the RNS relating to the 16,000,000 block listing of shares again.

I did not know the company can just magic shares as and when they like without prior agreement with other stake holders, or is this one of the conditions agreed as part the shareholder vote held each year?

[thunders] 26/1/2024 22:31

What will be the effext of A block listing application has been made for 16,000,000 ordinary shares of 10p each in the Company ? will this dilute the vlue of share? is this reason for the drop in price today?

[1224saj] 26/1/2024 19:47

I am a long term holder :-( I don't day trade, but this is a great stock to trade if you were active in that area

[kulvinder] 26/1/2024 19:04

This was the headline after the RNS, yet this drops back,. Yet any other share would have carried on going up with words like, "Revenue Grows", "Production Surges", "Outlook Strong"Tullow Oil annual revenue grows as production surges; outlook strongSource: Alliance NewsOil PLC on Wednesday said it has maintained a positive outlook for the year ahead, as higher production drove its annual revenue. 

[badger36] 26/1/2024 16:30

Well I'm sure the Africa Oil people would know the value of it. The market has given up on its ability to explore successfully. High sulphur seems to be all they can find

[hubshank] 26/1/2024 15:51

What would the t/o price be I wonder...

[badger36] 26/1/2024 15:47

We've been speculating for 20 years and never happened

[phillis] 26/1/2024 14:46

Typical UK niche company ripe for takeoit

[r9505571] 25/1/2024 19:59

Oil up 3% to $82.50

[katekat] 25/1/2024 17:36

better day today

[mariopeter] 25/1/2024 10:24

XxnjrMany thanks for the time you took to reply. Gone are the days when Tullow would walk away from gas!This Company will be great again when they have shifted more debt so is and always will be on my monitor.Government of Ghana doing the same as the Irish so far ....plans for floating LNG and imports from the North Sea seems better than indigenous, extremely low emission, gas production.Good luck with your investments and thanks again.

[s34icknote] 25/1/2024 10:23

Some big sells ? Or are these organised buys ? Judging by price movement ?What's likely target price before this slows down ?

[xxnjr] 25/1/2024 08:33

mariopeter,

wrt TEN

TLW increased equity from 47.2% to 54.8% on a part pre-emption of Anadarko exit. The issue with TEN is declining oil production associated with increasing GOR as you can see here

TEN Ave Gross Monthly BOPD and Gas Oil Ratio(%) for month of December

2018: 63.4K - 23.5%
2019: 54.1K - 31.1%
2020: 40.7K - 41.0%
2021: 26.5K - 50.3%
2022: 22.9K - 52.7%
2023: 18.5K - 58.0%
2024: 16.5K bopd mid guidance

Recent wells in Enyenra have disappointed with lower connected volumes and gassier than anticipated. N'tomme is a bit more predictable. The FPSO has a rated capacity of 80K bopd so OPEX will be going up.

In Dec/2023 TEN assoc gas production was 25,550 boepd. 80 to 100 mmscfd of that is sold to GNPC at about $2.90/mcf under a temporary pricing contract. There is supposed to be a new GSA at higher prices......if/when GNPC agree. This may lead to higher volumes of sales gas but the onshore receiving facility only has a capacity of 150 mmscfd. Most of the rest of the gas is re-injected. A lot of it used to be flared but minimal flaring now on ESG grounds.

Basically TEN is a declining oil asset in the tail of production afaics. And potentially a gas field producing at 60% higher volume than now if new gas pricing agreed.

Bizarrely GNPC are building an LNG import facility rather than using more of their own gas.

[hubshank] 24/1/2024 21:34

It does, however I'm optimistic that we may push this range

[mariopeter] 24/1/2024 19:10

XxnjrJust wondered since I was here is TEN depleting or did they sell part? In 2019 net to Tullow was 20k bopd now it's 9k. I note no plans for infill drilling to boost it. Just to say debt repayment looks painfully slow and hedging has been hampering that . Necessary hedging though. Jubilee going well.Always knew this business was more volume sensitive and much less oil price sensitive cause of hedging and volumes are a bit on the low side. Kenya still a pain . Much money locked there.

[r9505571] 24/1/2024 17:44

Seems to be in trading range of 30-38p