Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 08/3/2024 10:58

Probably sulphur and water going by our history

[subsurface] 08/3/2024 08:52

General interest

Cote d'Ivoire: Eni announces a major discovery in block CI-205, offshore Cote d'Ivoire


The Calao discovery was greeted as a significant one. Drilling operations took place approx. 45 kms off the coast in block CI-205, reaching a depth of 5,000 meters in water depths of around 2,200 meters. The well encountered light oil, gas, and condensates in various intervals of Cenomanian age




Tullow are in blocks CI 524 and 803 against the boundary line with Ghana

[adrian j boris] 06/3/2024 17:27

hojjat
6 Mar '24 - 17:25 - 4345 of 4345
0 0 0

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 17:25

hxxps://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/5.+Archive+2024/Tullow+FY+Results+2023.mp4

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 17:22

Watch the event today:

hxxps://lumiagmukstreams.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/5.+Archive+2024/Tullow+FY+Results+2023.mp4

[up just a little bit] 06/3/2024 16:01

With the write down and new projections this is a good entry point.

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 15:43

Ghana 2P Oil reserves

01/01/2023: 164.3
Revisions: -4.9
Production: -15.5
2023 y/end: 143.8

Note 3 Page 31 "Reserves and Resources revisions in Ghana relate to evaluation of the Jubilee South East (JSE) project, infill drilling and field performance in Jubilee during 2023, which is offset by the re-categorisation of the Tweneboa oil project from reserves to contingent resource.

OK.... you'd expect Ghana Contingent Oil Reserves to go up then. But no!

Ghana Contingent Reserves

01/01/2023: 185.0
Revisions: -32.0
2023 y/end: 143.8

meaning Ghana 2P + Contingent Reserves have fallen from 349.3m to 296.6m

a 53m barrels reduction!!!!

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 15:38

Given oil price above $83 and production 100k bpd, share price should be much higher. I predict well above 60p this year

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 14:11

Paying out debt and cost of development is not loss. That's why TLW is producing higher oil volume.

Production is 100k recently at the time oil price is higher than last year ($83.5 as I type).

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 13:48

Not sure I concur with slide 18 on TEN

"Reduced annual production decline to c.10%"

Dec 2022 gross was 22,869 bopd
Dec 2023 gross was 18,497 bopd, or 19.1% down

2022FY gross averaged 23,597 bopd
2023FY gross averaged 18,401 bopd, or 22% down
2024 Guidance is (9K/.5484) 16,411 bopd, or -10.8%

Yes 2024 guidance has been "reduced" to about -10%
but whichever way you look at it TEN production fell/declined by 19% to 22% in 2023!

[alfiex] 06/3/2024 12:04

Thats why share price is where it is.

[up just a little bit] 06/3/2024 11:57

Any broker predicted targets yet on the back of this news?

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 11:34

Anyone noticed we made a loss for 2023 of -$109.6m!

meaning our after tax loss over the last 5 yrs totals

-$3.05 billion!

[mccracken227] 06/3/2024 11:06

Guidance between 62/68k bpd for 2024 been saying that for years, looks like jam tomorrow again, same as last 10 yrs.

[subsurface] 06/3/2024 10:38

Just what I thought XX

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 10:17

Kenya morphing into a potential smaller scale trucking operation?

[badger36] 06/3/2024 09:34

Someone is lying as the market has spoken. Just incomprehensible that oil is at 82, debt falling, production rising and stock collapsing. They have no credibility now given the stock price

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 09:00

slide 17 of



suggests JUB 1H 2024 will vary between 75K and 105K?
And JUB 2H 2024 at slightly higher despite no new wells?
But guidance still 100K?

Edit..... although the orange line is above those levels!

That orange line does confirm production (so far) this year has been about 90K which is what tanker movements were suggesting. Now we are apparently around 100K which would be good if it lasts. It's an optimistic scenario on Jubilee. Will be interesting to see if that gets downgraded as year progresses.

[bootycall] 06/3/2024 08:56

Tullow was at 107k gross on Jubilee before the water injector failure with all the new wells yet to come on stream. If the equipment had not failed , they would probably have beaten guidance. Even now you cannot just re pressurise overnight, which is why they have slowly been rebuilding production levels. The rig is still in situ until mid year. Running production aggressively might damage the resevoir so engineers will be looking at optimised production over field life …averaging 100k to almost the end of the decade is the biggest jump in guidance for several years.

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 08:51

From reportthis morning, see Section Ghana, paragraph 5:

"Five new Jubilee wells (three producers and two water injectors) are scheduled to come onstream in 2024. The first water injector was brought on stream in January, and two producers were brought on stream in February, with gross production currently averaging over 100 kbopd."

Note: At one point the debt was about $4.8B, production around 87kbopd and the share price mostly between 170p - 230p.

Oil ptice is much higher now, over $82 .... and is stable

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 08:46

"These important facility upgrades put us in a strong position to maintain production in the range of 90-110 kbopd towards the end of the decade."

90K to 110K is quite a large range. But this is just an aspiration "a hope or ambition of achieving something". Wasn't the previous hope something like 100K to 115K?

[bootycall] 06/3/2024 08:34

According to the CEO statement, Jubilee will average gross 100k level until almost the end of the decade. It was always about insufficient well inventory to avoid lost production from mechanical failure which occurs pretty regularly in most large fields. The problems with the water injectors would have been a mere inconvenience under a scenario where other wells had been drilled and were ready online to replace the production. Going forward we will now be in that situation.
The revised guidance of average production being 90-100kbopd should result in analysts upgrades. Finally Rahul has got his butt of the fence. The drilling programme has finished 6 months of schedule and he feels able to make that statement….very encouraging. The writedown on Ten is temporary whilst the field development plan is approved ..then it could potentially be massively increased dependent on the new agreement .Booty

[xxnjr] 06/3/2024 08:33

"They reduced cost and increased production."

Not sure production has gone up!

2022 61.1K Oil
2023 62.7K but that included 5K of gas

i.e oil production has decreased from 61K to 57.5K?

Tullow spin!

[hojjat] 06/3/2024 08:22

I won't be surprised to see share price above 60p.

TLW share price was over 120 when debt was over $4bln.