Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[royalles] 11/1/2024 12:36

pearljamz - nearly all oilers are being downgraded by the lovely brokers at moment for Wokey PR reasons above everything else.

The key chart indicator is that 23p low from may 2023 ,so far Tullow has stayed above it although it has not broken through the key 40p level to break the down-trend.If i were to hazard a guess i would say the next push down could take it around 26p-27p and then push back out to 37.75p over a 3 month timescale.

[pearl jam] 11/1/2024 12:08

It would be a positive sign from a TA point of view if our 30p support can hold today,wider market falls later when the DOW opens though may test that resolve again.

[badger36] 11/1/2024 11:56

Well downgrade away as it's been kicked since the self inflicted Capricorn farce

[pearl jam] 11/1/2024 11:47

It looks like many games being played on this share lately and actually much of the sector too,however they are still producing good numbers at the sharp end.

[alfiex] 11/1/2024 11:25

68kbpd and 63-65p

[ctc1] 11/1/2024 11:03

70kbpd & 90p

[hubshank] 11/1/2024 11:01

One of the brokers - think Barclays but cannot recall off top of head, said 79p last April. I assume that was their 2 year mid term target

[bootycall] 11/1/2024 10:13

Around 75p if the oil price stays north of $75. The years of high capex, abandonment costs and paying down debt are almost behind us. Existing investors are too beaten up to realise IMO.
Let’s face it, two broken injectors knocked production back temporarily and sentiment has been caned. The caveat to this speculative figure is if Rahul bottles it in negotiations with the Ghanians on taxes, to let them save face. I dont see branch profits tax as a concern but they may squeeze the odd $50m out of us on some technicality. Booty

[xxnjr] 11/1/2024 09:36

All

- what 2024FY production guidance will be given in the upcoming Jan Trading update?

- what will the TLW stock price be end of 2024?

Not many prepared to give a prediction!

SS: 55p and 64K to 69K bopd.
MCS: 50p
badger36: holding out for 46p
Hubshank: "Be strong and hold on (not advice)"

Thank you for the above.

I'll go for: share price anywhere between 40p and 65p, oil production 61K to 66K bopd

Anymore more takers?

[dealy] 10/1/2024 15:46

every small cap I follow has experienced the same sell off this month

[xxnjr] 10/1/2024 15:41

Now GALP appear to have made a huge discovery in Namibia!

[alfiex] 10/1/2024 13:02

Even the world's strongest man is wavering here!!!

[hubshank] 10/1/2024 12:26

We touched 40p a couple of times in most recent bull run but it didn't close at 40p. Be strong and hold on (not advice)

[bobex] 10/1/2024 11:46

If an investor loses their 💰 money on the stock market by selling at loss that money lands in someone else’s pocket I guess; it doesn’t disappear into the air… or is it that it just hangs around and nobody wants it? With that in mind falls in share prices like this make sense. Part of the game.

[badger36] 10/1/2024 10:35

Well the 20s are much closer. Wish the hell it was bought out and end this misery. 46 cents and I'm even and glad to be finished with African corruption

[subsurface] 10/1/2024 10:28

Tea leaves say 55p and production guidance 64 to 69

[mcsean2164] 10/1/2024 10:18

My target is 50p. Im beginning to wonder if we'll ever break 40p😞

[xxnjr] 10/1/2024 08:38

All

- what 2024FY production guidance will be given in the upcoming Jan Trading update?

- what will the TLW stock price be end of 2024?

[ctc1] 10/1/2024 08:25

I think the company have achieved a massive amount given where they have come from in a relatively short time. I am looking forward to the future and recognise things do not always turn out as they were planned, especially in east and west Africa. On the whole the leadership at tlw agree doing great.

[xxnjr] 09/1/2024 23:29

Xx...What would you have done in Rahul’s position?

Heck I'm not qualified to run the company. I have no training whatsoever in oil and gas. Yet despite that it's probably fair to say my production commentary (so far) is generally more reliable than the company provide. And I haven't benefitted from being issued 9m share options to join the company, nor received £4m in remuneration including bonus's for my first 2.5yrs (2020/21/22) plus another 4.6m LTIP(?) shares as Rahul has! (see rns at bottom)

One of the things I wouldn't have done is exit our position in Namibia in the middle of a high profile 90 day well on a giant prospect on the block next door!

One thing I would do is be more open with communications so investors don't unwittingly get the wrong impression. for example this recent rns on the '26 bonds said



“Deploying cash from our balance sheet to buy back the 2026 Notes demonstrates our confidence in the business and our ongoing cash flow generation. Through this transaction we are reducing gross debt by $114.8 million and we will be saving $28.9 million on coupon payments. Together with the $100 million annual repayment of 2026 Notes in May and the purchase of $166.5 million of 2025 Notes in June this brings our total debt reduction this year to $381.3 million and marks the next step in our objective to be a low-debt business by 2025.”

A few weeks later the '25 bonds rns said



“2023 has been a transformative year for our balance sheet. Following the start-up of the Jubilee South East project earlier this year, we are now in a period of material free cash flow, with approximately $800 million expected to be generated between 2023 to 2025. This free cash flow, together with cash on balance sheet and the $400 million notes facility commitment from Glencore, will allow us to fully address all outstanding 2025 Notes and puts us in a strong position to successfully refinance the remaining 2026 Notes. We have reduced gross debt by almost $400 million this year and we remain on track to becoming a low-debt business with a sustainable capital structure.”

Sounds good but analyse these rns's and you'll see Tullow have borrowed about $120m to repay the 2025 bonds at an interest rate of SOFR + 10% = 15.31% p/annum = $18.3m interest on an annualised basis to cover that loan amount if not repaid. Maybe it will function like a bridging facility and be repaid sooner when cash is available but even so none of this was spelt out in their second rns. And if it's not repaid within one year the extra interest on that loan cancels out pro-rata 12 months of the coupon saving highlighted in the first rns.

One thing I would try not do is set the bar so high that you miss the lower range of your production forecast or future year projections (easier said than done!).

And if there is a problem with the water injection tell us about it when it happens not slip it out months later lacking the detail to enable investors to judge how serious/long lasting the issue is.

And on the TIP/LTIP as CEO I'd lead by example and migrate to the latter scheme on inception considering the original TIP was deemed out of sync with current good practise and not aligned to shareholders interests. Incidentally does anyone know why Rahul received these as afaics he's not entering the LTIP scheme until 2025?



Does this mean he's getting 4.6m shares for 2023 LTIP and will also get 2023 TIP award as well? Seems odd but I'm not familiar with the new scheme yet.

[subsurface] 09/1/2024 22:13

Phillis,Rahul and Investors need to

Sharpen up on the Foresight as opposed to the Hindsite as BOOTY said look forwards
improve on news flow would also help.

[mcsean2164] 09/1/2024 21:41

Gadzooks! What is happening to the SP?

[phillis] 09/1/2024 19:37

Xx
What would you have done in Rahul’s position

[badger36] 09/1/2024 13:29

Who is responsible for making a market in the share. The volume is pathetic vs the outstanding share count. It's one of worst performance ever for the past five years