Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[xxnjr] 22/12/2023 08:59

Good news of sorts SS. TEN starting an offload. Bit difficult to judge as cargoes are infrequent these days and tend to vary between 950K and 995K bbls (which would kind of suggest about 18,300 to 19,100 bopd), "broadly in line with expectations" as per the last trading update. Also this offload possibly could have been delayed a day or two as Jubilee finished offloading manoeuvres on the 20th and that would have literally tied up the tugs - if that was the case production would have been slightly higher. Touch and go whether we get another JUB cargo b4 year end. Imagine they will attempt one even if it means sucking all the sediment out of the tanks!

[subsurface] 22/12/2023 06:57

Debt has been a huge factor in holding Tullow back its a hard slow recovery program Tullow must remain focused until its well within target.
Only low Risk activities is the plan when we recover they may look at higher Risk /Reward so the share price is very slow to gather momentum.
Work hard for your money and work 2 times harder to look after it.

[xxnjr] 21/12/2023 15:32

Shows it can be done. Little old Harbour Energy just bought Wintershall Dea for $11bn! Deal announced at 14:05 hrs today. 10 yrs ago TLW Mcap was >$7bn(?) and Harbour Energy didn't even exist.

Also demonstrates we've been largely addicted to the the wrong basins. Most of the recent value creation has happened in US Permian Shale, Norwegian North Sea and Ultra Deepwater Guyana. Aidan Heavey once attended a US Conference on Shale Oil but clearly didn't see the potential there. We exited UKNS and Norwegian North Sea when exploration success went to their heads. Recently we inexplicably exited UDW Namibia which is the next value creation hotspot.

[xxnjr] 21/12/2023 13:15

Jbl a bit under at the moment but assuming it was at 100K gross our 38.98% = 39K.

We have too much asset concentration in Ghana. Ghana is not 'easy Africa' as some would maintain. Many decisions appear to be made in the interests of a few wealthy and politically connected individuals rather than stimulating inward E&P investment. And payment collection in the energy space can be problematic, for example



Above doesn't apply to offshore fpso cargos as all go to international buyers.

Beats me why we haven't spread the risk by acquiring assets elsewhere. Deals have been done by others (like Afentra) where the deal is backdated 12, or 18 months meaning proportionally less borrowing on completion. Jadestone recently did a back dated deal in Australia where they will likely receive a payment on completion but will assume the DECOM liabilities which will be covered from future cashflow.

Having 3 of your 4 eggs in one basket is not good if the receptacle (ghana.gov) is a basket case.

[ctc1] 21/12/2023 10:12

McDade = £600m rights issue 2017.

Currently, 50kpd Jbl, 10kpd Ten, 15kpd non-op, gas 7kpd bbl equiv. = ?

[mcsean2164] 21/12/2023 10:02

I don't think it's a badge of honour rather reflects how useless our current team are. Look at the price of oil and our share price I think if we still had McDade and didn't go bust we'd be back over £1

[xxnjr] 21/12/2023 00:49

hmmmm! this year to date we would all have been better off investing in our ex-CEO's new home. Price now/YTD increase:-

TLW 36.83p +1.83%
Afentra 37.63p +40.4%

Maybe Paul McDade wasn't so bad after all?
Or maybe he's learnt from past mistakes?
He who laughs last laughs loudest?
Maybe but he sure left a mess here.

[xxnjr] 19/12/2023 01:02

No. But sad news for those affected. Hope the families get compensation.

[badger36] 18/12/2023 21:26

Are we affected?

[subsurface] 18/12/2023 21:08

Large Explosion reported at Guinea Oil Terminal
A huge explosion at the main oil terminal in Guinea's capital Conakry has killed at least eight people and wounded dozens, officials say.

[mcsean2164] 18/12/2023 15:38

Just noticed above. So basically looks like oil prices will hit 100 in 2024 because analysts say it won't.

[xxnjr] 18/12/2023 14:40

OP back to $79. Handy if it lasts as the only OP that matters is the OP when a cargo ships not what the OP may have been between cargoes.

[xxnjr] 18/12/2023 12:47

Bp has temporarily suspended oil shipments via the Red Sea.

[xxnjr] 18/12/2023 12:31

3.7m at 34.04p.

also an >20m UT on friday at about 36p from memory.

[xxnjr] 18/12/2023 09:34

Maybe it's temporary SS. Hopefully water injection issues on the fpso getting sorted? Something partially offline? Anyway tanker about to start loading now. Takes about 2 days. Thx - walk was great. Lot's of pheasants here. Enjoy your swallow fest :)

[hubshank] 18/12/2023 08:23

Wait I read added to fts 250

[subsurface] 18/12/2023 07:04

hope not Ariane?

Tullow Oil plc(LSE:TLW) added to FTSE 250 Index December 18, 2023 at 05:00 am

[hubshank] 18/12/2023 07:00

That enables some institutional buyers. Can only be a good thing

[ariane] 18/12/2023 05:55

Tullow Oil plc(LSE:TLW) added to FTSE 350 Index
December 18, 2023 at 12:00 am EST

[subsurface] 17/12/2023 23:53

Disappointing if production has dropped XX,POO at $77 at the moment.
Hope you enjoyed your Trek,The Swallows have arrived back in Thailand.

[xxnjr] 16/12/2023 16:33

So, a VLCC left CLOV in Angola the other day headed for Jubilee to collect a cargo. But as still over 300 miles to go now, unlikely to arrive b4 tomorrow evening, which means unlikely to start an offload until 08:00hrs on the 18th at the earliest, all of which suggests recent production may have dropped further to somewhere between 80K and 85K bopd.

[xxnjr] 16/12/2023 10:45

Some shipping lines like Maersk have temporarily suspended transits via the Red Sea following Houthi attacks, however it's believed the US and partners may soon announce plans for a task force to escort ships for safe passage whilst off western Yemen.

"Oil prices were little changed on Friday, with the international benchmark Brent crude up 0.3 per cent at $76.84 a barrel. Mærsk’s share price jumped 7 per cent on expectations that the crisis would cause freight rates to rise."

[badger36] 15/12/2023 16:47

DAVY VIEWTullow has announced the final results of its recent tender offer for its 7% March 2025 notes. $141m was validly tendered at a price of 92%, with Tullow previously offering to buy back up to $300m. Bondholders are clearly now comfortable holding on to get par at maturity and this is very positive to see.