Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[alfiex] 07/12/2023 07:08

xxnjr thanks for the insight, it's more than we actually get from tullow

[xxnjr] 06/12/2023 22:23

Seriously though let's look at where we are. This is not to be read as investment advice, it's just 'guesstimates' on my part.

14/7/23 rns "The first JSE production well has been brought onstream and a further two producers and one water injector are expected onstream this year to help sustain gross Jubilee production over 100,000 bopd."

17/7/2023 rns "Gross production from the field has surpassed 100,000 bopd, after a second JSE production well was brought onstream. Both of the JSE wells are performing in line with expectations"

The recent trading update said "On track to deliver c.$800 million of free cash flow from 2023 to 2025 at $80/bbl, supported by a strong production outlook with Jubilee production expected to be maintained at around 100 kbopd gross.....Two Jubilee water injection wells brought onstream in October, three further wells (two producers and one water injector) expected to be drilled before year end, ready for tie-in during the first half of 2024."

however

".....net oil production is expected to be marginally below guidance of 58-60 kbopd, primarily due to Jubilee South East schedule delays and reduced water injection, which is being resolved with higher water injection rates anticipated by year end."

If we look at production data from Petrocom we can see actual Jubilee production by month up to Aug. We can also make an educated guess for Sept/Oct/Nov from observed tanker offloads noting this data may be misleading as just guesstimates. Have also added new well data so we can see impact from those wells coming online.

(1) 77,485
(2) 71,194
(3) 67,921
(4) 66,590
(5) 68,995 [new main field well 24/5]
(6) 82,521
(7) 89,052 [2 new JSE producers on stream]
(8) 97,964
(9) 98,000 approx [1 new well on stream]
(10) 98,000 approx [2 w/inj wells on stream]
(11) 95,500 approx
(Now) 90,000 approx based on 1 cargo that started loading this morning. This could be an aberration and the next tanker loading may suggest higher production.

6 wells then. 4 producers and 2 w/injectors.

The 1st well had a big impact.
2nd & 3rd wells had decent impact.
4th well seemingly little or no impact.
2 water inj wells will take a while before they have an effect (thats normal i believe)

Perhaps the company need to prove 2 things if the share price is to advance

1. Fully explain and demonstrably resolve the mysterious water injection issues.

2. Prove to investors that a >100K plateau is realistic and not a pipe dream by achieving solid production of >100K over a period and no slip ups.

And from a philosophical point of view; how about under promising and over achieving on production numbers?

[xxnjr] 06/12/2023 17:39

1 barrel of whisky may get you there.

[hubshank] 06/12/2023 15:49

Absolutely. It was muppet soup.So how many barrels do we need to hit some markers£1 a share£4 a share£9 a share

[pacsltd] 06/12/2023 07:18

@Hubshank - what kind of soup was it? Also, was it home made ?

[subsurface] 05/12/2023 22:15

Need to eat more greens Hubshank.

[xxnjr] 05/12/2023 21:57

Opec cuts completely ineffective. Maybe OP will revisit $72?

[hubshank] 05/12/2023 16:50

I had tea and toast for breakfast, soup for lunch, tea and cake at 4.30. I'm sure everyone on the TLW thread is really interested! ;-)

[badger36] 05/12/2023 16:30

Death by a thousand cuts on minuscule volume. Can't fathom why large holders are not topping up to thwart this attempt to destroy market cap

[xxnjr] 05/12/2023 10:40

Good for you! If you hadn't noticed this is the TLW board!

[blackhorse23] 05/12/2023 09:09

Added PFC today

[xxnjr] 04/12/2023 09:43

Brent a bit weak. The idiot in Saudi will be pulling his hair out.

[xxnjr] 04/12/2023 09:41

Not a surprise. Would you like a free share of 5 bn barrels, or whatever? of course we would. US.gov given exxon and now Chevron involvement probably won't concur.

[subsurface] 04/12/2023 09:11

Venezuelans have voted overwhelmingly in favour of claiming a disputed oil-rich territory long controlled by neighbouring Guyana.


did Tullow get out in time.?

[xxnjr] 01/12/2023 13:48

Venezuela making noises about reclaiming their oil patch that is currently next door in what is called Guyana.

[subsurface] 01/12/2023 13:15

Guyana ECO Atlantic report

On 10 August 2023, the Company signed a Sale Purchase Agreement for its wholly owned subsidiary, Eco Guyana Oil and Gas (Barbados) Limited to acquire a 60% Operated Interest in Orinduik Block, offshore Guyana, through the acquisition of Tullow Guyana B.V., a wholly owned subsidiary of Tullow Oil Plc. in exchange for a combination of upfront cash and contingent consideration (the "Transaction").
Post-period end:

On 15 November 2023, Eco announced that the Company had received Government approval for the transfer of 60% Working Interest and Operatorship in the offshore Orinduik Block in Guyana from the Minister of Natural Resources, Cooperative Republic of Guyana.
On 21 November 2023, the Company announced completion of the Transaction, upon which Eco became the designated Operator of the Orinduik Block and increase its aggregate Participating Interest to 75%, held via Eco Orinduik B.V. (60%) and Eco (Atlantic) Guyana Inc (15%). TOQAP Guyana B.V continues to hold a Participating Interest of 25%.
A formal farm-out process for the Orinduik Block has commenced and the Company expects to provide further updates in due course.

not sure what will happen with Kanuku block Repsol were planning to do a survey. and possible new terms.

[xxnjr] 01/12/2023 08:45

According to the Guardian "Global richest 1% account for more carbon emissions than world's poorest 66%". Strangely quite a few of the elite perpetual jet setters in this category are at COP lecturing us on the need to reduce our emissions. What hypocrisy!

[xxnjr] 30/11/2023 15:50

That is a good Q. wrt the 2026's the answer is no

"Tullow will use approximately $102.5 million of cash on balance sheet to fund the purchase of $114,755,000"

The 2025 offer is still open. We'll find out in due course if any of that is paid from the new $400m facility which afaik is undrawn at the moment? But suspect you ultimately could be right as there may be an element of robbing Peter to pay Paul when Tullow eventually repay these bonds in full in 2025.

The total amount of bonds owing has come down in steps since Rahul's $1.8bn bond and existing $800m facility; i.e

$2,600m reduced to $2,500m, then $2,400m, $2,235m and now $2,120m (2026's today) plus at least another $130m from the 2025's before end December taking it down to $1,990m.

$2.6bn has reduced to $2bn meaning less interest going ahead.

And TLW are forecasting net debt of $1.6bn at year end which might suggest they'll have at least $300m cash at that point. I'm not an accountant so don't buy or sell based on my non-expert ramblings!

[controlledmadness] 30/11/2023 15:02

Isn't this all financed by the debt facility for $400 million announced at the same time as the bond buy back.
I realise that is for 4 years but is the debt actually reduced or just reported in a different way?

[xxnjr] 30/11/2023 12:29

"Through this transaction [on the '26's] we are reducing gross debt by $114.8 million and we will be saving $28.9 million on coupon payments. Together with the $100 million annual repayment of 2026 Notes in May and the purchase of $166.5 million of 2025 Notes in June this brings our total debt reduction this year to $381.3 million and marks the next step in our objective to be a low-debt business by 2025."

Odd they forgot to add in the further gross debt reduction of $130m today on the 2025's!, although that offer is still open

Taking bond debt reduction this year to at least $510m?

[xxnjr] 30/11/2023 11:48

The most likely answer is there isn't a larger enough resource 2164

Mozambique is what, 50 TCF?
Tanzania is >30TCF?
Mauritania-Senegal is 30 to 50 TCF?

TLW Ghana is 2 TCF?

Bootycall will know more but I'd suggest you need about 20 yrs of gas supply at nominated throughput level to get an LNG facility off the drawing board. Ghana doesn't have that afaik.

Bizarrely ghana + private equity have spent ($600m?) building a far cheaper to build LNG regas facility to import LNG at Tema Port.

link didn't work. google: Helios Tema LNG Terminal

Having said all of that Marathon Oil successfully constructed a smaller scale LNG plant in Equatorial Guinea at about the same time Jubilee was discovered. But even that requires 500 mmscf/d of gas.

[xxnjr] 30/11/2023 11:12

2025's

"As of the Early Tender Deadline, U.S.$130,086,000 principal amount of Notes were validly tendered. The table below identifies the principal amount of Notes validly tendered and accepted as of the Early Tender Deadline"

@92%

So payments will be approx $120m for the 2025's