Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[badger36] 15/2/2024 08:12

You having a laugh

[deltalo] 14/2/2024 08:15

Volume picking back up, Should increase a lot this year.

[badger36] 12/2/2024 10:29

What's up with volume?

[xxnjr] 09/2/2024 12:42

good luck deltalo

another possibility I suppose is Rahul gets bored and exits. Mr Samuel (16.7%) of Tullow engineers a merger with Seplat Petroleum where Mr Samuel's E&P (petrolin) has 13.77%, or even a 3 way merger Petrolin/Seplat/Tullow.

(In 1994, Samuel Dossou- Aworet approached Engen Petroleum , a predominant South African oil company, to form Energy Africa, the first pan African exploration and production company traded in the Johannesburg stock exchange. Ten year after its creation, the company was acquired[5] by Tullow Oil, doubling[6] the British oil company size in the process.)

Or TLW do a deal elsewhere to balance out high ghana asset concentration.

[deltalo] 09/2/2024 11:52

I have en entry price and that was 30.406p, 100k shares. I see that the share price is it's way back up now. Should be interesting.

[xxnjr] 09/2/2024 11:15

I don't have an exit target mcs. TLW will either wither on the vine or rerate on E&P's coming back into favour. At the moment there's a highly concentrated market in big name tech. That money has to go somewhere when the tide (hopefully) turns.

[mcsean2164] 09/2/2024 10:36

Do you have an exit target xxjnr?

[xxnjr] 09/2/2024 09:01

Quite a lot of oil off W.Africa.
Less competition on country entry in frontier regions.
Less regulation and oversight.
Apart from Nigeria/Angola the local NOC's (if there is one) aren't omnipresent.
It's dodgy, so easier to do entry deals..... but maybe complications down the road.

for starters

[badger36] 08/2/2024 17:37

Utterly corrupt country Why they concentrate in such places is unfathomable

[subsurface] 08/2/2024 12:35

Ghana in the news today

Ghana electricity: New power tax put on hold after public outcry

Ghana is currently going through its worst economic crisis in a generation, and the government is battling to increase its revenue.

Ghanaians are now required to pay an annual levy for the carbon emissions produced by their petrol or diesel-powered vehicles.

Tullow keen to stop emissions or perhaps pay a levy,

[subsurface] 07/2/2024 13:04

Wished they had remained in Kenya Tullow dont have the clout.
Thanks for your input XX

[xxnjr] 07/2/2024 12:16

According to Patrick P (he would know) Uganda still on track to deliver first oil by end of 2025. This will introduce a new revenue stream for TLW starting 2026. Probably at least $50m/yr which will drop straight through to bottom line?

Globally Total produce about 2.5m boepd. Breakeven price <$30/bbl. Net debt about $5bn.
Puts TLW's metrics into perspective.

[xxnjr] 06/2/2024 15:01

You never know our CEO may just get bored and fire himself ;-)

Probably not though as Rahul currently has 17.8m (potentially 19m after next AGM) shares or stock options.

Bought with own cash

11/5/2020 1.346m at 26p = £350,000
20/6/2023 0.361m at 28.5p = £103,000
Total cost approx £450,000

Options awarded on appointment

3m at Nil Cost
3m at 0.2566p
3m at 0.5132p (all 9m vest 1/7/2025)

Bonus Awards as part of annual compensation
2020 TIP 319,316 shares at 54.76p face value
2021 TIP 1,104,269 shares at 54.95p ditto
2022 TIP 1,104,269 shares at 32.45p ditto
(As part annual bonus awarded in shares, not cash)

In summary

The own investment of £450,000 although up hasn't performed well.
The 9m stock options aren't performing well (only real value at current share price is in the 3m Nil cost).
The 2020 and 2021 bonus shares have lost 47% of their face value.
The 2022 bonus shares have lost 10%.

Don't really understand the new LTIP but Rahul received another 4.6m Nil Price shares under that at approx 27.5p face value



Conclusion

Our CEO really needs to get the share price north of 60P. Or fire himself.

[subsurface] 06/2/2024 13:04

Do you think the big share holders should demand better? the management all get voted back in each year,perhaps time for a change.

[badger36] 06/2/2024 11:36

Well I made all my bank losses back and 300 percent on the present holdingRyanair has been magnificent. Even during Covid they out performed. Just shows what good cost control and active management can accomplish. Oil exploration and Biotechs are nothing but bottomless pits exploited by executives who enrich themselves, short their own stock off shore and do reverse split after split wiping out shareholders. Tullow is now just a vehicle for executives to extract cash under the guise of managing. Just look at the decisions to sell off assets or the hype to drive up the stock before they announced sulphur and water. The gas find was an

[badger36] 06/2/2024 09:45

Hard to justify buying more at this stage. It's amazing how small volume has wiped out gains made over the 24 months.Why no support or even a possible take out

[badger36] 01/2/2024 11:49

???. End of the decade now

[mccracken227] 01/2/2024 11:10

I think we are probably stuck in the 30,s until end of year when hopefully we should see more profit and less debt.

[xxnjr] 01/2/2024 09:39

Rahul was also awarded 9m share options on appointment.

(1)3m were nil cost
(2)3m were approx 25.5p cost (if memory serves)
(3)3m were approx 51p cost (ditto)

(1) are worth a lot less than he assumed.
(2) aren't worth much.
(3) have negative equity.

He needs to get the share price to 60p at the very least!
How long that will take remains to be seen.....

[xxnjr] 01/2/2024 08:51

"Executive pay should be linked to share performance"

It is. As 50% of the bonus is governed by relative shareholder return with a comparator group. IIRC Rahul has failed to qualify for TSR bonus every year since arrival. 2023 would seem to be another miss?

[subsurface] 01/2/2024 06:43

And worker performance should be assessed by AI

[badger36] 31/1/2024 17:14

Yes Executive pay should be linked to share performance

[alfiex] 31/1/2024 17:11

Nevet fails to disappoint