Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 21/1/2024 11:35

Kenya

Kenya announces an end to G2G oil supply deal

The Kenyan Government is set to exit its Government to Government (G2G) deal that it launched in April 2023.

The G2G oil supply deal agreed between Kenya and three national oil exporters from the Gulf was launched by Kenya's president William Ruto last spring in a bid to stop the free fall of the Kenyan Shilling against foreign currencies.

In a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Treasury said that the scheme has not worked as it hoped.

"The government intends to exit the oil import arrangement, as we are cognizant of the distortions it has created in the FX market, the accompanying increase in rollover risk of the private sector financing facilities supporting it and remain committed to private market solutions in the energy market," the Treasury is quoted as saying.

[hubshank] 19/1/2024 14:14

technical trading I recon! Not advice from meAnd let's hope I am right! :-)

[zingaro] 19/1/2024 13:38

Mous(e): what hole did you creep out of ?

[anony mous] 19/1/2024 13:32

Looks like will test year low of 22pWill need to hold otherwise into the teens imo.

[xxnjr] 19/1/2024 07:32

How can you determine that?

[s34icknote] 18/1/2024 18:22

Looks like a sell 500 k There were a couple of late 500 k sells

[xxnjr] 18/1/2024 17:27

the maximum bought by a director in recent times in one go was 200,000 shares and even that was broken down into 4 or 5 separate trades on the day.

[s34icknote] 18/1/2024 16:30

This has dropped back from 38p to 31 p500 k buy late afternoon ? More director buying ?

[subsurface] 17/1/2024 22:52

Thanks XX
Also talk of new expansion on the Bonny Nigeria LNG trains debottlenecking and new Trains may be added
As Nigeria require more Gas to process they could draw on WAGP pipeline system which helps Ghana Gas who have gas available,which ensures Gas availability when Nigeria has internal problems onshore.









Nigeria LNG Train 7 hits 52% but concerns remain over future feedstock

Following completion, Shell will retain a role in supporting the management of SPDC JV facilities that supply a major portion of the feed gas to Nigeria LNG (NLNG), to help Nigeria achieve maximum value from NLNG.

[xxnjr] 17/1/2024 17:02

SS - there are a couple of offshore packages in the works coming out of Nigeria.


Equinor have agreed a deal with local player Chapall on Agbami but Prime (owned 50% Africa Oil/50% BTG Pactual) have a pre-emption right and it's possible they exercise that.

I forget the other slice of an fpso developed oil field that's doing the rounds.

Also ExxonM have been trying to offload Equatorial Guinea for a while but I believe the government there are holding things up. The Zafiro fpso also apparently is a bit leaky inwards!

Must be more deals up for grabs. Dunno if TLW are in the running? But at least they know how to run fpso's these days :)

[xxnjr] 17/1/2024 16:32

Interesting comments from Occidental badger36.

[xxnjr] 17/1/2024 16:26

thanks for response @bootycall.

Interesting. You have come up with a fairly conservative number.

JUB 106K @ .3898 is 41,319 which kind of points to 65K as follows

TEN I'm guessing you would say about 19K @ .5484 = 10,420?
Non-op about 13.5K?

so kind of 41,319 + 10,420 + 13,500

or say about 65K?

[subsurface] 17/1/2024 13:35

Nigeria: Shell agrees to sell Nigerian onshore subsidiary, SPDC


Renaissance is formed of ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith and Petrolin

Samuel Dossou-Aworet founded Petrolin, a company he created in London in 1992 and ... In 2012, a joint venture including Dossou's company Petrolin Trading Ltd.




interesting times perhaps? though Tullow were in a different team.

[badger36] 17/1/2024 12:57

One has to wonder when you look at Tullow and this headline "The global oil market could be heading for a supply crunch starting in 2025 if exploration activities continue to fail to keep up with demand, Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) CEO Vicki Hollub said Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.According to Hollub, U.S. oil companies in particular have shifted away from exploration since 2012 and focused on tapping shale oil reserves, which have a much shorter lifespan than conventionally produced oil.The market will move from near-term oversupply to a long period when the world will need more oil, Hollub warned.ING analysts said that increased Middle East tensions pose supply risks for crude oil and liquefied natural gas, but "we are not seeing any fundamental impact on supply yet," analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote. "In order to see oil prices breaking significantly higher, we will need to see even further escalation and/or a meaningful loss in oil supply."

[bootycall] 17/1/2024 11:28

@xxnjr We have some major wells coming on stream this quarter ..so no need to jump the gun on forecasting. I believe Tullow will produce from Jubilee on a range of 100-115k bpd gross.There is always variability owing to technical issues but if you wanted me to make a stab in the dark right now , i would say 106 kbopd as an average stabilised rate as a forecast made by the Company at its full year results. If the Ghanians agree a gas deal including Ten and Jubilee, this may rise to 110 kpbd gross for Jubilee. The situation at Ten is very frustrating as opening up reserves at Tweneboa would most likely reverse production declines and allow considerable reserves to be accounted for.
This Company badly needs a capital markets day ! Gabon has plenty of potential but production depends on the level of investment for short term paybacks. The IRRS for regional projects are exceptional for this Company which is why it has the ability to surprise on the upside. I think people are blinkered by the debt levels and one sensible strategic move by this company may result about a complete revaluation. Personally I would like some capital discipline and use some of the cash flow to make share buy backs. The bonds were unloved…but post our tender over and a subsequent price surge…no one wants to sell now . Funny that !

[subsurface] 17/1/2024 10:09

Dont mind being wrong if ctcl is correct,should be an e mail in your box XX

[xxnjr] 17/1/2024 09:36

hey bootycall,

I tend to agree with your observation above "The key reason why everyone is so apathetic towards Tullow, IMO, is that they have not properly updated the market on FUTURE GUIDANCE…but will do so in a few weeks."

I may have missed yours but what do you think 2024 FY production guidance will be in next weeks trading update?

So far we have

Jan Update 2024FY Prod'n Guidance

xxnjr: 61K-66K = 63.5K
SS: 64K-69K = 66.5K
alfiex: 68K
ctc1: 70K

END 2024 share price Prediction

badger36: 46p (holding out for)
Hubshank: 49p
MCS: 50p
xxnjr: 40p-65p (somewhere in that range)
SS: 55p
alfiex: 63-65p
bootycall: 75p
ctc1: 90p

Anyone else prepared to throw their hat in the ring?

[joek1] 17/1/2024 09:22

And the 7% bonds are now at 93.18 with a yield of 14.29%! So the people with the biggest stake in the company (by value) believe that this is no longer a junk bond - in spite of the rating agencies. There seems to be a disconnect between what is happening to the bonds and what is happening to the shares

[badger36] 17/1/2024 09:09

2024 sure has started bad for most stock. Hard to understand the constant downward spiral and not one bit of positive news on exploration. Oil steady but nobody is interested in Tlw

[subsurface] 13/1/2024 14:37

Hi Waldron
Ruto seems to change like the wind, hope Tullow dont get too involved in a refinery
there to be shot at.or are they wanting Tullow to walk away without spend recovery..


June 2023



Sept 2023



Dec 2023

[hubshank] 13/1/2024 12:22

Maybe they have done better than expected hence all the director buys ahead of closed period! We can hope. I was hoping for 45p for Xmas! Looks like I am here for a bit longer yet. ;-)

[waldron] 13/1/2024 10:01

Upcoming events



24 Jan 2024

Trading Statement and Operational Update



06 Mar 2024

2023 Full Year Results

[waldron] 13/1/2024 09:53

Kenya

Ruto calls on Tullow Oil to build a refinery

Kenya's oil minister has approached the British oil company about the possibility of processing future crude from the Turkana fields to supply domestic consumption.

However, the project promises to be complex and costly

[bootycall] 11/1/2024 12:56

@PearlJam

Many analysts will be trimming their oil price forecasts. Standard Chartered, most recently, had average oil prices a little higher than current levels being an example. Tullow has been holding up from upgrades because they temporarily lost approx 8-9k bpd (resulting in a minor downgrade for 2023) from two malfunctioning pumps and they wanted to see how three new wells came on stream early in the year. The key reason why everyone is so apathetic towards Tullow, IMO, is that they have not properly updated the market on FUTURE GUIDANCE…but will do so in a few weeks.
Maybe they didn’t want to frighten all those poor bondhodlers from selling their bonds back to us :)
Some might say that this is too optimistic an appraisal but this outcome has been confirmed by partners (Kosmos Energy) and those monitoring the monthly production numbers coming out from Government sources locally.
I would speculate that we are currently experiencing a few index changes and shorters are trying to exploit the opportunity by spreading BS theories during a close period…(when directors are probably restricted from dealing) . So Pearl Jam, I have to ask you, what is an appropriate cash flow yield for Tullow ? Do you realise that gross Jubilee production should increase considerably this year with the additional JSE wells DO you have a clue ? Booty
STOP PRESS Barclays today lowered its oil forecast by $8 to $85 for 2024. I don’t think the sector will have any problems surviving…hahahahaha ! Tullows cash operating cost per barrel is $12.4 as of June 2023. The shorters are basically shaking the tree.



Please do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed by this stale old bull in Tullow Oil when making an investment decision… but check to see the veracity of the claims !

[royalles] 11/1/2024 12:36

pearljamz - nearly all oilers are being downgraded by the lovely brokers at moment for Wokey PR reasons above everything else.

The key chart indicator is that 23p low from may 2023 ,so far Tullow has stayed above it although it has not broken through the key 40p level to break the down-trend.If i were to hazard a guess i would say the next push down could take it around 26p-27p and then push back out to 37.75p over a 3 month timescale.