Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 11:13

Tullow Oil PLC (TLW.LN) said Wednesday that it expects lower revenue and gross profit in 2019 compared to the prior year, and reiterated its production guidance for 2020.

The oil-and-gas company said total revenue is expected to be around $1.7 billion with a gross profit of approximately $700 million for the year ended Dec. 31. This compares with last year's revenue of $1.9 billion and gross profit of $1.1 billion.

The company's working interest in oil production averaged 86,700 barrels of oil per day, in line with expectations, Tullow said.

"Tullow expects to report pretax impairments and exploration write-offs of around $1.5 billion, primarily to a reduction in long-term oil price assumptions as well as a reduction in TEN 2P reserves.

Free cash flow for the full year is expected to be around $350 million, down from $411 million in 2018.

Looking forward to 2020, capital expenditure is expected to be $350 million, with an additional $100 million slated for decommissioning spend. It expects to generate $150 million of free cash flow.

Operationally, group average production guidance remains at 70,000 to 80,000 barrels per day, it said. "

Its a debt monkey with little hope

[pro_s2009] 15/1/2020 11:09

Nicholas Hyett, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said 2020 will be a tough year for Tullow.

“In the short term the focus is on increasing efficiency, both at an operating level and in capital expenditure, as the group looks to conserve cash and reduce a still considerable debt pile,” he said.

“Current forecasts still have the group generating positive free cash flow next year, but that’s based on an average oil price of $60 a barrel – a price the market has struggled to achieve at times over the last year.

“With a new CEO yet to take the reins Tullow is a little adrift at the moment, and while production continues to struggle and debt stays stubbornly high it’s at the mercy of an oil price which has not always been friendly.”

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 10:58

Anyway - who are 90% of you guys giving me a lecture if a holder pre mid december?

haha

[costax1654x] 15/1/2020 10:52

orm mcap 3 mil,cash 6 mil,no Debts!Plus Gold assets!Distressed Seller due to the sale of tungsten mine(clear our debts and we received 6 mil extra) need shareholders approval

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 10:49

Only short what cant be shorted much higher

battle on

[sbb1x] 15/1/2020 10:45

Only sell what you can buy back cheaper. 68/69 target this week

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 10:45

Sector down

Commodity down

SUb sector down

Only teletbby's buying here , soooo obvious

SP will show you this week

[dickiebird2] 15/1/2020 10:45

This will be back in the 70's before you know it !!!!

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 10:43

Teamwork , did i not state what was a simple fact?

Market dumped out the data at open

Muppets buying it due to running heavy losses and feel forced to average down

Fact.. nuff said lol

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 10:35

Market dumped it out early morning... that was the reaction to the data

Didnt see it open but 10%or something dump out?

That was the reading or data. The buying is the falling knife and forced buyers

Its screwed

[sbb1x] 15/1/2020 09:51

This should attack 68/69 this week

[stupmy] 15/1/2020 09:48

Makes sense Booty and I also think we need to wait for the March full year announcement until share price starts to look safer (barring downside surprises).

[florenceorbis] 15/1/2020 09:45

2020 outlook

-- In 2020, capital expenditure is expected to be c.$350 million, with an additional c.$100 million expected to be spent on decommissioning. Tullow expects to generate underlying free cash flow of at least $150 million from 75,000 bopd at $60/bbl.

-- Operations across the Group's production assets have started the year in line with expectations and 2020 Group average production guidance remains unchanged at 70,000 to 80,000 bopd.

-- In Ghana, recent activity at Jubilee includes the tie-in of the J-54 water injector well and planning for a maintenance period at the end of January to increase gas processing capacity. At TEN, the drilling of a production well on the Ntomme field has commenced and the well is expected to be tied-in by the end of the first quarter.

-- In Kenya, the early oil pilot scheme (EOPS) is suspended due to severe damage to roads caused by adverse weather in the fourth quarter of 2019. Trucking remains on hold until all roads are repaired to a safe standard. Work continues with Joint Venture Partners and the Government of Kenya to progress the development project.

-- In Uganda, Joint Venture conversations with the Government are ongoing. Tullow remains committed to reducing its equity stake in the project ahead of FID.

-- Tullow recently announced the results of the Carapa-1 exploration well offshore Guyana, which proved the extension of the Cretaceous oil play into the Group's Guyana acreage. Next steps will include the integration of the Carapa result into geological and geophysical models and high-grading of the Cretaceous portfolio across both the Kanuku and Orinduik blocks.

-- The Marina-1 well offshore Peru is due to spud at the end of January 2020 and is expected to take around 60 days.

[bootycall] 15/1/2020 09:44

I am hearing a message that sensible and effective cost reduction is already underway regarding central costs which are not charged back to partners. Tullow will wait for its annual redetermination with the banks in early March before outlining its new exploration and appraisal programme. The latest reserve report mean this is highly unlikely to be a problem . After capex Tullow has $600m of cash flow so control of costs is an easy way of raising the share price...because cash flow yields make the world go round. They were so tight lipped in the conference call about Uganda it makes you think that something is being actively considered....
My take, is that by the end of this current year, free cash flow projections for 2021 will rise to nearer $300-350m based on improved production from Jubilee and Ten and straightforward cost reduction. Peru is a high risk well so unlikely to come in but Guyana has mouth watering potential. I believe there may be a commitment well on the Repsol block this year so not sure why the Board is guiding for no wells at this stage. I think the message is...lets wait until the March update when all the variables can be nailed down and then we can start to emerge from the doghouse !

[stupmy] 15/1/2020 09:40

For me price rise so far is simply a relief rally. Nothing new in the RNS. Also IMO there are still things to be dealt with and I guess from the above post that that will now become clearer in March rather than February. I stick with my view that we will see 41 p area. Might rise first of course, but I'm not wildly optimistic about big share price rises for the moment.

[sbb1x] 15/1/2020 09:31

Because its undervalued and Uganda could be explosive for the share price upwards!

[wildsheroo] 15/1/2020 09:29

Why this sudden rise?

[jimarilo] 15/1/2020 09:28

From the Eco bb on LSE

Tullow just said on investor call that they will integrate the data from 3 wells but is unlikely to drill in Guyana in 2020

[eodfire] 15/1/2020 09:19

Hasn't been the norm yet. Is this what you are hoping for?

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 08:54

Been a traders share a while now Mick

But if you mean a range? 20 to 45p imo will be it's norm until has to raise cash

[stupmy] 15/1/2020 08:53

Also looks as if they are not intending to deal with SH concerns about the precipitous exit of the CEO/Expl officer. There is still the Feb announcement pencilled in as planned news. I found the RNS neutral and very much in line with DT's previous RNS. I'm being lazy, but is the Kenya issue new?