Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[wodahsnoom] 14/1/2020 13:25

One question for DT - if the operational performance was that bad that TLW sacked their CeO and Exploration Director, how come the board is still intact? The only conclusion you can draw is that the board didn't know how bad things were - and if they didn't, why didn't they??

[stupmy] 14/1/2020 13:22

In all probability the published (3rd party) details on the Jethro/Joe oil is ok, but I'd like to see it from the company itself. I don't like making assumptions on what I consider incomplete information.

Like you, I'm more interested in the rapid expulsion of the CEO/Explorations officer. I find that odd. Often there are reasons for that kind of oddness and from my point ov view it is not necessarily that case that we can assume it's to do with performance issues already communicated with shareholders. I worry there could be more. I don't take the view that 'at this price' things are fine as over time you'll get your money back. I don't want to drop 25% or more of an allocation and spend stressy time hoping I'll get it back. I prefer to enter as close as possible to the bottom. Happy to miss out as well as it's just a share, there are many others like it ......

[yidarmytom] 14/1/2020 13:07

would wanna be out of this overnight when it gaps up mega tomoz, fact, nuff said

[wodahsnoom] 14/1/2020 13:06

Stupmy, I'm less concerned about the Jethro/Joe oil quality - Pro200Xx seems obsessed with it. If they announce tomorrow that the sulphur content is 70% with an API of 1 it won't make any difference. The market has Jethro/Joe as uncommercial - full stop.

Now if there is more drip feed of bad news tomorrow as has been the case with Tullow over the last 2-3 years there is no way back. The market (and me) don't trust the management and the first step to rectifying that is a bit of honesty and timely comms.

The reason I'm still long is that there an opportunity for a new beginning - we'll see if that is about to start tomorrow.

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 12:58

All macro variables limit upside to small percentage. Not sure why any hold into data

98% risk to the buyers here

[jimarilo] 14/1/2020 12:57

Your slipping or are you accepting it now lol

"This will bounce on decent news"........despite Brexit ;-))

[stupmy] 14/1/2020 12:55

wodahsonoom, I have exactly the same worry about the outgoing CEO/explorations officer. In most cases changes like this are orderly, this was, as you say, an ousting. And it has not yet been explained, just like the detail of the Jethro/Joe oil quality, nothing from the company yet. There is still considerable risk here in my view. I'm hoping that will be completely behind us after the February annoucements. Tomorrows, will be interesting, just to see if they deal with any of this or just stick to the trading statement/Operational update.

[leoneobull] 14/1/2020 12:50

How come declared shorts at 1.3% last time I checked?

[wodahsnoom] 14/1/2020 12:45

Can't see any good news materializing 5 weeks since the rns sacking of Ceo/COO. Incidentally, they both went very quietly - more to this than meets the eye. Any more bad news tomorrow and TLW will be consigned to basket case rating.

[leoneobull] 14/1/2020 12:36

It's risky holding into any major RNS. However, look at long term chart. This will bounce on decent news. whether it comes in jan or feb immaterial if you own the shares.E.g. Uganda, Ghana, Guyana, Etc. New CEO.

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 12:25

Would think so

Needs serious stuff to happen pre close from the city , else its just a tanker

[sbb1x] 14/1/2020 12:25

Lots games being played here, a whale keeping this in a tight trading range

[auson1] 14/1/2020 12:25

SentimentRules,

Yeah dip buying HUR could have worked as well but that ones not for me.

[stupmy] 14/1/2020 12:23

Extend it rather than pay for it SR?

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 12:21

Auson Leonobull had a battle with me on HUR in the 41 to 50p range

I think thats why leaving the country today

TLW will just extend the trip

[auson1] 14/1/2020 12:19

Leoneobull,

What you think its going to be that bad you are leaving the country ? Get a hold of yourself man !

[stupmy] 14/1/2020 12:18

Leoneo, I agree, but I'm bored. Price is waitinng on news. If it's good (or at least neutal) then long positions benefit. If isn't then those on the sidelines can decide whether and when to enter. Just a waiting game, really nothing interesting happening. There maybe some selling into close to cover risk agaisnt out of hours bad news. But you could also get some buying on the FOLO trade. I'd have guessed buying into the close would be PI's/Retail.

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 12:15

Hope so SBB

Last thing a short wants to see is 50p today

be no 39p then

[sbb1x] 14/1/2020 12:14

60s incoming

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 12:14

Leone Analyse HUR?

[sbb1x] 14/1/2020 12:14

Bounce off 58.02

[leoneobull] 14/1/2020 12:13

Stumpy. Holding for tomorrow. At airport now. No point over analysing couple of pence down

[auson1] 14/1/2020 12:11

SentimentRules, Whites123,

I don't believe you are short here for one moment, more likely a dip buying day/ 3-5 day trader, shaking a few more shares from weak hands.

Whites123 is completely correct if you are short, you are actually a retail CFD or Spreadbet punter and have not really borrowed any stock to do with as you choose.

There is a BIG difference in the connotations and the market moving power attached to true shorting.

[stupmy] 14/1/2020 11:53

oooohhhhh dear whites/leoneo, no-one likes to see that when we all know a share price can only go oen way 'to infinity and beyond'. Leoneo, do you also use 'the method' when investing.

[sentimentrules] 14/1/2020 11:51

More important is how you think the funds are positioning prior to data

what you reckon?