Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sirrux] 15/1/2020 07:30

Sounds like it's being tidied up for a sale. Aiden Heavey's vehicle might be interested paying upfront for a share in future cashflows, if the majors will take some of the operating interests. It's very speculative right now, institutions will be focussed on the debt and know only too well how cruel lenders can be but they know very little about the oil business itself and can underestimate that side.

[bigsi2] 15/1/2020 07:29

Impairment - decommissioning cost 100m and a drop to 150m free cash flow... nothing meaningfully positive in that RNS

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:29

Are people forgetting the 1.4 billion value of the Uganda stake? Farm down further percentage talks underway with Ugandan government after years of fading accepting compromise on CGT bill. Decision expected by end of this quarter on FID

[wildsheroo] 15/1/2020 07:27

Hello 45p!

[sharekitchen1974] 15/1/2020 07:27

70,000 to 80,000 bopd. If at the higher end of production with a sleeker business model could significantly surprise to the upside, I think it's quite a positive update. Sale of stake in Uganda is also good to hear as this will reduce debt, another production well coming in soon. Not the horror RNS some were expecting that's for sure.

[stupmy] 15/1/2020 07:26

Well 30 mins time we'll start to see market reaction, first hour maybe less important that what happens a bit later. Out of interest, were the infra-structure problems in Kenya (weather related road damage) highlighted in the previous RNS or is that new?

[pro_s2009] 15/1/2020 07:24

They paid down a small amount of the debt...... now tell me, when does the debt have to be repaid ?

They have no chance of paying off a major part of it before......the wolves are at the door.

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:22

The debt was 4.8 billion back in 2016. Debt was already known to be 2.8 billion before this update. No matter how the shorters and FOMO brigade try, this is a decent in line RNS

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:21

Big money was waiting on sidelines I'd expect analysts to be mildly positive compared with December shock

[pro_s2009] 15/1/2020 07:20

2.8 billion debt and gearing up to 2 times.

Going to vultures circulating before too long to make the most of when the debt deadline nears.

[upwego] 15/1/2020 07:20

they have tried to just send an rns out with no negativity and tried to paint a lovely picture that all is well hiding the bad news that`s not good.

Anyway good luck to all

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:19

That was in the December update and is known news. As regards the forward looking production targets, that will be updated in the full year update . It's highly dependent on gas offtake but reserves unchanged.

[wodahsnoom] 15/1/2020 07:18

Upwego??? - all flagged in December though an underwhelming rns today

[yidarmytom] 15/1/2020 07:18

SentimentRules15 Jan '20 - 07:13 - 39899 of 39902
"39p in a week to 10 days max"

Hilarious, I'll remind you of that post in the next 48 hrs

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:17

60 ISD is quite conservative. I'd expect FCF therefore to exceed 150m USD and that's before proceeds of any farm down on Uganda.

[upwego] 15/1/2020 07:16

production to drop 10 to 15,000 barrels this year free cash flow to drop $200m

Jethroe and joe are dead in the water expect a massive drop today!

They have not mentioned all the bad stuff! crooks!

[sbb1x] 15/1/2020 07:16

We will see 120 in 2020.Bagger from.this level chaps

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:14

Reserves largely unchanged despite 10 downgrade. That means that even if future production a bit lower, it's all still there. So reset debt in couple of years over longer timeframe. BOOM!Group reserves and resourcesIn late 2018, Tullow appointed TRACS as its independent reserves auditor. Over the course of 2019, over 95% of the Group's reserves and resources have been audited and the results underpin the quality of the asset base. Group net 2P reserves at year-end 2019 are 245 mmboe (2018: 280 mmboe). Excluding the impact of 2019 production (31 mmboe), reserves are largely unchanged year-on-year and reflects an increase in reserves at the Jubilee field and non-operated assets, offset by a reduction in reserves at the Enyenra field at TEN. Group net 2C resources have increased to 1,102 mmboe (2018: 874 mmboe), largely driven by additions in Ghana. Tullow will publish its full audited reserves and resources with its 2019 Full Year Results.

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 07:13

Market was dumping current line. It ain't changed.

39p in a week to 10 days max

[leoneobull] 15/1/2020 07:11

2020 outlook-- In 2020, capital expenditure is expected to be c.$350 million, with an additional c.$100 million expected to be spent on decommissioning. Tullow expects to generate underlying free cash flow of at least $150 million from 75,000 bopd at $60/bbl.-- Operations across the Group's production assets have started the year in line with expectations and 2020 Group average production guidance remains unchanged at 70,000 to 80,000 bopd.-- In Ghana, recent activity at Jubilee includes the tie-in of the J-54 water injector well and planning for a maintenance period at the end of January to increase gas processing capacity. At TEN, the drilling of a production well on the Ntomme field has commenced and the well is expected to be tied-in by the end of the first quarter.-- In Kenya, the early oil pilot scheme (EOPS) is suspended due to severe damage to roads caused by adverse weather in the fourth quarter of 2019. Trucking remains on hold until all roads are repaired to a safe standard. Work continues with Joint Venture Partners and the Government of Kenya to progress the development project.-- In Uganda, Joint Venture conversations with the Government are ongoing. Tullow remains committed to reducing its equity stake in the project ahead of FID.-- Tullow recently announced the results of the Carapa-1 exploration well offshore Guyana, which proved the extension of the Cretaceous oil play into the Group's Guyana acreage. Next steps will include the integration of the Carapa result into geological and geophysical models and high-grading of the Cretaceous portfolio across both the Kanuku and Orinduik blocks.-- The Marina-1 well offshore Peru is due to spud at the end of January 2020 and is expected to take around 60 days.

[sentimentrules] 15/1/2020 07:10

Don't know what you are reading lads. Shorting first market price today if it's last close or slightly higher

[stupmy] 15/1/2020 07:10

Looks in-line to me, no surprises and no clarity on the areas that trouble me. Hard to see how that would justify a rerate in either direction. Will be an interesting start to the day.