Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 16:41

Wasn't many shorters in. Low short interest

Wonder are they ordering ?

[master rsi] 02/1/2020 16:37

THE ORDER BOOK WAS ON FIRE ....
... during the last 30 minutes,
it went from under 58p to over 60p
But the UT came out @ 59.66p

note
I wonder if some shorters were closing?
I know some will say... naturally

[bootycall] 02/1/2020 16:15

xxnjr. I am slightly oversimplifying my answers. In reality IOCs are likely to buy individual assets rather than the “job lot”. Tullows assets are likely to be more desirable where they act as operator. Comparing gas assets in Algeria on a BOE basis never really does it for me. I recall that there have been four version of PSCs used in Algeria...the latest version EPSA IV has been used since 2005 and the terms are not particularly attractive for an OPEC country. Leaving aside for the moment the issue of field relinquishments (probably 30 year license duration including exploration on award of licence?),I recall reading an analysis by Rystad Energy and Boston Consulting Group which calculated the average for the Algerian government’s ”take“ was 88% of revenues on average between 2009-2014...with less favourable terms for the larger fields.
I like to look at the attractive netbacks and cost recovery terms which Tullow enjoys in Ghana. What most people miss is that Tullow enjoys even more attractive cost recovery terms than Kosmos in its key production asset. I think the armchair scribblers are beholden to analysis of 1P and miss proper evaluation of the 2P and 3P upsides which should be sensibly risked and added to the equation. The Ivory Coast assets are very attractive as is the potential deep water opportunities on their existing blocks. Exiting Uganda is a “gimme” if Tullow roll over and take a small haircut on the previous offer which had been tabled.

As the oil price has firmed and further hedging becomes possible the Tullow management can effectively marginalise much of the short term debt issues. I actually think most of the bond holders will opt to extend their debt maturities if the coupon is still as generous as before. If the oil price rises $5 to say $72, the net back will only rise a further $1 so much of the value is already there regardless. At the end of the day its all about fiscal terms, well productivity, cash flow yield, sovereign risk etc. If production returns to 90kbpd at Jubilee which i think is plausible after Tullow has deployed its budgeted $175m in a revised field development plan (which deals with gas reinjection issues)AND the Ugandan assets are sold/sold down, my valuation will probably rise to nearer £2.80 based on $65 oil. Wood Mac had a $6.5bn enterprise value on Tullow’s assets a few months ago...before they chopped off the odd $2bn for the forecast reduction in production profile.
Boost power production and processing facilities on the Jubilee FPSO over the next 3 months, reset the field development plan, sell off some peripheral assets such as Uganda and farm down both Guyana blocks and credibility will return. Private equity many not give the Company the breathing space.

[akmal101] 02/1/2020 15:55

Took profits and into UFO

[yidarmytom] 02/1/2020 15:55

big buys from me today, this is going north

[teamwork1] 02/1/2020 15:54

85k just went through

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:54

Can only ssume your piling into gold now with the US repo market state? Gonna be a big payer in next downturn

Not sure if you hedge the currency gbp to dollar yourself or via hedged etf but either way...

Few more properties on the way lol

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:34

Property. I've got a fair bit. Markets paid them . Sold off gold in recessions and profits bought the hard hit properties

Many ways to skin cats.

Granted mostly cheap ones but the turnover is good and maintenence little

[whites123] 02/1/2020 15:30

SentimentRules2 Jan '20 - 15:22 - 38874 of 38875
0 0 0
My friend. .

Instead of trying to find an APPL in one stock which rarely happens,

Rubbish... When I started I spread my money around (And I owned my money, not like you using borrowed money) and I struggled to bank and maintain profits.
Eventually I researched and researched and researched some more..

Essentially myself and a colleague both had circa £10k in stocks..
He played the research and invested in 2... by year end of the second year he was sitting on a portfolio value of over a 1/4 Million...
By that same year end 2 i was sitting on same £10k.

It was a big wake up call... Research, research and research...
That was over 15 years ago.
He now owns 2 hotels abroad (Barbados of all places), and over 20 properties in the UK.
He doesnt get involved in stocks these days other than to collect divis on hios portfolio. He will drop a 100 into a stock if I tell him its solid.

I am playing catch up in terms of wealth but own a fair few assets which mean I dont have to work.
I have an allure for stock picking though and researching to keep the brain cells ticking over.

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:25

£50000 Is for bluechip

As you go down the grading ladder, so should monetary risk

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:24

All about managing aggregate anyway

No one stock should make you rich. ..because it can make you poor

Very simple

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:22

My friend. .

Instead of trying to find an APPL in one stock which rarely happens,

Build lots of APPL returns over time, without the need of finding one.

If I had 10 billion today. No stock is worth a million..

That's for institutions whom risk YOUR money

[whites123] 02/1/2020 15:19

SentimentRules2 Jan '20 - 15:09 - 38872 of 38872
0 0 0
Onehanded

Normally don't touch such spread but il fire a grand at it for fun if it looks like closing above 12 8 mid.


Why not £50k as its borrowed money..
What on earth are you expecting to make on a grand to make any risk worthwhile?
Even a grand profit which would require you needing 100% isnt worth it surely?
Whereas you stick £50,000 in, if you make 10% then at least you get £5,000 which is a weeks money for most workers.

Perhaps I got you right when i made my assumption, you really are a small player but with a dirt great gob.

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 15:09

Onehanded

Normally don't touch such spread but il fire a grand at it for fun if it looks like closing above 12 8 mid.

Certainly got the right volume keys at Base see can it double up

[billy_buffin] 02/1/2020 15:06

Re Carapa: Comparison to of Liza 216 crude assay:

API Gravity: 32.1 (SG 0.865)
Pour Point: 37.4 (F!)
Sulphur Weight%: 0.510
Viscosity at 20C cSt: 14.1
Hydrogen Sulphide ppm: Nil

Note TLW Sulphur quotes'less than one' what is it 0.9%? - 0.5% max to aim for. Nothing wrong with API 27.

[onehanded] 02/1/2020 15:02

large spread and up 40% in last 7 trading days, worth waiting for any profit takers.

[sentimentrules] 02/1/2020 14:26

Interesting gap bowl. What's the spread on it ?

[onehanded] 02/1/2020 14:24

Sold my last lot at 10am for small profit. Can't see this recovery in the medium term. Hoping to get a bigger return on Fireangel FA. the stockpick for recovery AIM stock 2020. Started well and will break 20p resistance and then new later this month to push on to 30p.IMHO. Worth a £600 punt. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

[xxnjr] 02/1/2020 14:16

The "negative" comments from analysts are just stating the facts that are glaringly obvious.

[master rsi] 02/1/2020 14:16

At the moment there is some Resistance at around 60p on the upside,
while the lows are higher the last 2 times.

[wodahsnoom] 02/1/2020 14:13

200mln + carried cost in Uganda

[leoneobull] 02/1/2020 14:12

Plugged and abandoned. Loada Carapa.If sell Uganda stake 900 m usd plus get Ghana gas sorted with government being fairer between Eni and Tlw different ballgame

[master rsi] 02/1/2020 13:58

Slowly the negative comments from analysts come along and some may be trying to help some shorters.....



"The thinness of the oil column, combined with no information on the quality of the reservoir, suggests to us this is not commercial," Canaccord analysts write.
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"Job Langbroek, an analyst at Davies stockbrokers, described the oil quality as “very acceptable” but that the reservoir thickness was “sub-optimal and not commercial”.