Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[umitw] 10/12/2019 09:59

Ted baker cuts divi, CEO walks! Similar scenario.

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:59

market makers all moved up

[mariopeter] 10/12/2019 09:59

$60 oil ..might be a big ask although 51000 barrels are hedged at $54.
How much of cap-ex really op-ex is a good question
Reduced debt headroom will cause stress.
Uganda less liquid than other assets as government want many JV partners
Ghana needs much work and hope the new lady has been pessimistic (wasn't on the oil price)
Kenya seems the low hanging fruit for a sale and sell assets they must as bank debt will be reduced now that the debt to equity is so much. Sale for cash needed.
Cost of some debt will likely rise with downgrades from credit ref agencies.
How committed are the remoter drills?
Just how worried are Total about their joint licenses. Will they bid?
Much will depend on Total and government relationships. Tullow is distressed and needs support.
Still a question over whether they continue to drill in Guyana/Peru after the latest well result due soon. The result is not known but a find could release some fast cash.
Immediately they need to cash in reduce debt,sell the Company or pray for some good luck....very very sad.
My thoughts are a turnaround will likely depend on a sale in Kenya which is huge but onshore.Total must be the first phone call. Bid most likely however as asset values are unchanged. Uganda might make a Total bid a bit trickier but needs must.

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:58

fasten your seat belts folks

[middlesboroughfc] 10/12/2019 09:58

Next leg up to 60

[phillis] 10/12/2019 09:48

so who then are the most likely suitors
a sale is the most probable outcome

[givememymoneyback] 10/12/2019 09:43

stupmy, there is no barrier on these BBs. Anyone can join. I reckon a lot of these braying posters are kids randomly trolling. No money involved. They just like trying to annoy the adults. I've complained in the past but ADVFN does nothing.

[deltalo] 10/12/2019 09:38

FUM is on the move back up now.

[stupmy] 10/12/2019 09:38

Thanks, it's not easy to make money from the markets, but it's possible. For sure you won't do it by reading bb's or listening to others. You have to find something that works with your own personality. This is actually all I do, my job if you like. Most of my job is working hard to do nothing. To ignore the failings in my human nature and not to buy or sell or whatever. I didn't do succeed yesterday and got stung for a few pence. Good luck with it Whites. No reason that you won't end up being right.

As an aside, I did find it very odd yesterday to see all those posters arrive, with no rational view. They're mostly on filter now, but why are they here? It doesn't seem that they have an interest in investing, trading, discussing. What is their motivation. That, I cannot fathom out.

[wodahsnoom] 10/12/2019 09:36

If the risk of default in 2021 was real, tlw would have the option of hanging on to the 350 Ml fcf for this year and use it in 2021 instead of paying down debt immediately so what do the doomsayer say about that possibility

[nw99] 10/12/2019 09:36

Remember too that the prospective pared down FCF yield even at $60bbl over 2020-2030 on consensus analytsts estimates is approaching 50%. Not seen anything like this value in the sector for a major before

[billthebank] 10/12/2019 09:32

Well said that man!!!

[whites123] 10/12/2019 09:30

Lovely reply Stumpy and well thought out and certainly reasoned.
It is very strange for me to have to to sit in front of a pc monitoring chat forums all day.. :-)
Its a luxury I can seldom do... As an Investor, using funds which are mine and never leveraged I never set a stop loss. Madness I hear many shout, whilst I equally hear many shout, thats the way to do it.
The market is fraut with dangers and automated BOTS are the Achilles heel (IMO)
To often there is carnage one minute met with re-adjustments the next which will have the effect of stopping many people out.
I am old school... I invest and sit back and wait for fruition.
It doesnt often give me the 10% gains many crave, but as in the case of PMO it provided many hundreds of %.
My arithmetic is not that bad that I cannot work out that assets exceed liabilities here.
My average is now under a £.
When do I see it above a £? I would love for it to be tomorrow, but even a year will mean from todays point in excess of 100% gain is possible (I actually mean probable). But many will have been in out shaken it all about in constant chase of the next few percent...
Modern technology has made every single one of us experts and traders.
In the older days where you used to have to use money we were an army of investors. :-)

[teamwork1] 10/12/2019 09:29

Tomorrow will be important as how this share progress,it was always going to go up today after a massive drop yesterday.i think it will go back to 40p.

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:23

The buys are relentless.

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:22

They need to take this up to balance the books.

[umitw] 10/12/2019 09:20

The pivot is 54p, if the share price passes this, it's a good news will likely to go up to 60p.Eagerly watching.

[stupmy] 10/12/2019 09:19

Whites, to a certain extent it was possible to see that there was good risk of the share price dropping from 145 area. That risk forced me to stay out. Although I'm the first to admit that no-one can see into the future so it's just personal judegement of whatever information you're researching. For me it was primarly technical analysis, with some knowledge of the expected newsflow and fundamentals. I could have been wrong and price could be 400 now and I'd be fine with missing the rise. It's more important to miss the losses, 70% down requires 300% up just to get your money back, that's a big ask. There will be some here who even bought above the 145 area. If you believe that this is fundamentally a good investment, then you must stick with your research. But if you'd had guaranteed stops you'd have made a small/moderate loss and been able to re-invest what was left of your allocated money in TLW at 30% or so of the price, in other words, you'd be sat on 3 x the number of shares with the sort of moderate loss all of us have to suffer from time to time.
As far as the future is concerned, no-one can see it. But possibilities e.g. POO, asset sales, Uganda resolution, TEN improvement etc are just that, they are 'ifs' and with enough ifs you could put paris in a bottle, it doesn't mean it will happen. That means there has to be significant risk now to TLW. Sure it can service it's debt for the moment, but can it do that and service it's contractual comittments to it's allocated blocks over the relevant time frames? Maybe it can, but if POO drops, can it do it. Geting that debt down is clearly now going to be a massive issue. I think in the past at estimates of production of 93,000 with Guyana 'transformational' discoveries etc, the market was more sanguine about TLS potential. It's suddenly become an acute issue. Despite bb chater about wanting shot of the CEO and exploration chappie (not CFO), for it to have happened in such a precipitous manner raises a few doubts in my mind about whether we have more to learn. In a better world, those departures would have been via an orderly transfer of responsibilities. Time is a factor that most don't think about with these things. TLW is not going bust in the next few months. So, you can involve yourself if you can work out good entries etc. The chances of it going to 0 before feb are very small. But Feb's announcement might not be pretty.

[givememymoneyback] 10/12/2019 09:17

Totally agree with you whites123. NAV is good. Keep trades unleveraged, unstopped and manageable to avoid being part of the circus.

[bootycall] 10/12/2019 09:15

Numis EV/EBITDA of 1.2X for calendar 2021. This is “marketing communication” dated 10th December ... after all expectations have been reset. If a major was to buy this and refinance debt you could see EV/EBITDA under 1. FFS this is giving it away. I have bought more shares this morning.

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:15

strap in

Im in profit so no worries there

[whites123] 10/12/2019 09:14

Hawkind10 Dec '19 - 09:08 - 36710 of 36713
0 0 1
Late afternoon this will br 10 -12 % down IMO. People buying our outright gamblers.


So you dont think its because its an Oil producer chucking out over 80,000 bopd presently.
Generating FCF in the region of $350 Million presently.
With Assets which dwarf the debt buy in excess of a Billion
With great licenses.
etc
etc
etc.

Its because you think that whilst sitting on the edge of your bed typing furiously away on your laptop that people are gamblers you deserve what??? Applause? Credibility? A standing ovation? What is your motive... I am guessing you must have one?

[datait] 10/12/2019 09:13

All market makers moving up now folks.