Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[rafieh] 09/12/2019 20:28

You are not alone.

[bigger is better] 09/12/2019 20:14

it's not a mms stock

[norsewebster] 09/12/2019 20:12

I'm not 100% sure that meant to read.

[bigger is better] 09/12/2019 20:12

many guys man got hit today. Including me.

Tried to scalp and ended losing one arm. I am not sure, but I think some layering was in play.

Bids getting getting whacked.
Major IIs holders are clearing the deck.

[norsewebster] 09/12/2019 20:11

You 100% sure? How do you know. I'm sure that there is nothing untoward but I am not sure.Doesnt drop 70% for no reason in one day. mms taking advantage.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 20:05

Stupmy9 Dec '19 - 19:54 - 36504 of 36507
0 0 0
Norse, that also crossed my mind about the reasons for the hasty exit of the CEO and CFO.

Stumpy, The CFO has gone nowhere.... CEO and Explorations Director were pushed.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 20:02

thegreatgeraldo9 Dec '19 - 19:24 - 36500 of 36503
0 1 0
bones698
9 Dec '19 - 18:32 - 36478 of 36498
0 3 1
Current mkt cap 560m
2.9bn debts looks horrific given lack of profits in high production


....Small point, but the debt is in dollars

That will not suit their agenda... :-) :-)
Even though the market cap changes as the share price does it finished £575M with net debt at Sub £2.2 Billion.
With assets in the 10's £Billions and full year revenue expected at circa £1.4 Billion they need all the incorrect comparisons they can muster.

[sharekitchen1974] 09/12/2019 20:01

This is not Afren nor Enron so will people stop comparing them to Tullow who are in a completely different scenario

[dealy] 09/12/2019 19:39

one thing is for sure: margins at Cfd providers have to go up massively. 10% margin for a stock that falls 70% in a day

[knowing] 09/12/2019 19:36

Knowing9 Dec '19 - 17:57 - 36463 of 36500 Edit
0 1 0
amaretto spell it out with your simple math then please.

Still waiting !

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/12/2019 19:24

bones698
9 Dec '19 - 18:32 - 36478 of 36498
0 3 1
Current mkt cap 560m
2.9bn debts looks horrific given lack of profits in high production


....Small point, but the debt is in dollars

[elliotset] 09/12/2019 19:24

Same , paid 68 got stopped 42

[whites123] 09/12/2019 19:22

Not one to split hairs, but (We are still awaiting results from TLW after nearly 4 months in the case of Jethro.)

Its not actully... its 3 months next week... Although 3 months is 2 months to long..

[norsewebster] 09/12/2019 19:21

Feel sorry for the investors in here. Not invested here, but been in I3E lately.The 2 CEOs? Even though it says they have left by mutual consent they have been pushed.Now the questions is, is it on performance or gross misconduct. If it is performance then hopefully the share price will recover. If it is gross misconduct then anything could happen.With what happened to afren a few years back I believe this is the reason for a sharp fall today. Dorothy thompson seems respected in the city looking at sky news. So hopefully she can be trusted and got all of the fbad news out in 1 go. Might have a nibble on this tomorrow if it drops mid 30s.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 19:17

captain james t kirk9 Dec '19 - 19:05 - 36493 of 36493

Absolutely cant fault your post.
Joe and Jethro were factored in as non viable with a 25% drop in share price when announced Nov that it was heavy oil..
I agree fully the results should have been known and announced by now, but for the fact we do not know how long these particular tests are taking and have more samples been taken?
I may be overly optimistic regards Carapa in that if this hasnt already been priced in as a failure then todays drop has even more significance as being (IMO) overdone.
The bond holders clearly see no issue with servicing debt... If they had, then the bonds would be trading as junk, and far from junk they have reacted with what I would suggest was a warranted drop (12%)
There are numerous plays that come to light with reflection. You mentioned JOG, add PMO to that...
The Directors are damned if they do and damned if they dont.. I am hopeful (I would be downright surprised) if Ms Thompson CBE has not over emphasised the issues to ensure the new CEO starts with a clean slate on which to rebuild TLW fortunes.

[notimpressed] 09/12/2019 19:11

from the company website

"The Board remains focused on strong corporate governance and effective risk management. The Board is accountable to shareholders for sustainable financial performance and long-term shareholder value. It meets these aims by approving the Group’s strategy and ensuring that the necessary resources are in place to achieve the agreed strategic aims and objectives. It determines the Company’s key policies and reviews management and financial performance."

you could have fooled me

[captain james t kirk] 09/12/2019 19:05

I wouldn't normally post in circumstances like this as I'm not a holder and I really feel for the folks here. Some of us had a similar experience not so long ago with JOG but that was less complex than TLW and came back strongly on one piece of good news.
The main reason for posting is that Kibes earlier on (post 36455) seemed to be considering jumping on board, believing the debt to be $1 billion. It's actually $2.9 billion, with $300m maturing in 2021 and a further $650m in 2022.

whites 123
Most of your list are imminently achievable (post 36466). It's JOE/Jethro and Carapa that are the potential problem boys. Despite some of your earlier comments that the bad news on these is now baked into the price, I don't agree. They are both binary plays.
JOE and Jethro being commercial will boost the share price but it will head sharply south if not. The same I'm afraid applies to Carapa.
The worry for me on JOE/Jethro is that Hurricane recently announced a positive test on their Warwick West well: "Initial analysis of oil samples indicates a light, 43° API oil." The test took just under two weeks ! We are still awaiting results from TLW after nearly 4 months in the case of Jethro.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 19:04

BigSi29 Dec '19 - 19:00 - 36490 of 36491
0 1 0
For all the armchair no nothing commentators today - I’ve yet seen one mention the key issue. Oil price !!
$60+ sustained price and Tullow should limp on and restructure-

Currently not bust or going bust- bond prices highlights the confidence senior debt holders currently maintain -

HOWEVER- if Oil price drops significantly for a sustained period then Tullow is in trouble

Absolutely BigSi.... Absolutely... Oil would have to drop below $60 for a sustained period (Ignoring the fact TLW has hedged a fair amount at >$65 and has $1 Billion headroom)...
Add any positive into the mix and it all becomes different.
Sale of any assets:
Rising Oil price:
Increased production :
all adds up to an ability to satisfy debt and some.

[whites123] 09/12/2019 19:00

“There is a risk that the market will lose sight of the true value of our underlying assets,” interim Chairman Dorothy Thompson said by phone, insisting that the Jubilee development and Uganda reserves remain world-class oil fields. The company is conducting a review “to create a sustainable business, which we believe we can do,” she said.

Asked whether Tullow is actively seeking buyers, Thompson reiterated that the company would always be open to any offers that were attractive to shareholders.

The company will reduce capital expenditure, operating costs and corporate overheads, it said. It sees underlying free cash flow next year of at least $150 million at $60 a barrel after capital investment of about $350 million.

CFO Wood said that Tullow is in a “strong financial position” and that “reducing our debt pile will continue to be our priority.” He conceded that “in the short-term, it will be going a little slower

[bigsi2] 09/12/2019 19:00

For all the armchair no nothing commentators today - I've yet seen one mention the key issue. Oil price !!$60+ sustained price and Tullow should limp on and restructure-Currently not bust or going bust- bond prices highlights the confidence senior debt holders currently maintain -HOWEVER- if Oil price drops significantly for a sustained period then Tullow is in trouble

[amaretto1] 09/12/2019 18:59

Read the interim results.