Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aqc888] 31/1/2024 08:57

Things not happening when management say things will happen is what erodes trust from investors. I find it very worrying they don’t seem bothered about meeting their own targets. My trust in them meeting whatever next target they set themselves has just reduced from 50% chance to 40% chance. The share price will corroborate with this doubt. Every investor in an AIM company expects this type of behaviour from an AIM company, all fears are being confirmed. I now aim to sell on the next spike. Whatever they say at the next announcement I will expect a 30-40% chance of it ever materialising, the discount people will apply to Trinity’s share price will correspond to this.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 31/1/2024 08:22

Ab76 - you really do not get it. If you want a BoD that is responsive to and aligned with shareholders, you have to get rid of the incumbents. Seriously, how many more chances are you going to give these guys? The time for constructive engagement has passed.I posted this a couple of weeks ago replying to a nocents post about the update that was promised by the end of this month:"...there will be nothing meaningful for weeks because, unbelievably, they want to know even more about zones that the last we heard were producing 10bopd.TRIN shareholders need a BoD that can admit failure, move on and regain some momentum.These guys have to go."And you wonder why the TRIN recovery has stalled in the 40s?

[aqc888] 30/1/2024 17:04

Hopes have been raised for an update before the end of January… surely they wouldn’t fail to update us tomorrow… after all the anger over failure with Jacobin communications?

[skyship] 30/1/2024 11:47

Still no "End Jan." RNS. Will have to be tomorrow if they are to deliver on their promise.

[andrewbyles] 30/1/2024 11:35

New tweet from Trinity: “Trinity is the proud recipient of the Trinidad and Tobago Energy Chamber’s 2024 Annual Award for Excellence in STOW (Safe to Work). Congratulations to Team Trinity for contributing to a positive HSE culture.”

This award is a reminder that Trinity is a well run company, which is especially important for oil companies - a serious health and safety disaster could bring ruin. Last year’s fire on Trintes could have been a real disaster, but fortunately, and probably because of this excellence, production was only shut down for a brief period.

[pavey ark] 29/1/2024 20:19

Once again if people would actually read and try to understand what is posted before responding things may move along a bit better
My point is that calls to do this or do that are premature when we are only a few weeks into the SPT reform..... we have not been given the promised update by JB....and on a slightly more personal basis Andrew has not yet received a response from Nick Clayton.

Huffing and puffing may be second nature to some and repeated regurgitation of perceived slights may give great joy but I prefer a slightly more nuanced approach.

If there is no detailed update and if the plans for Galeota are not set out then that will be the time to move.

On the subject of the value of just posting here I have already said that some collective approach from private investors may be required......hence the value of posting here.

I have read Andrew's letter to Nick Clayton and if a personal and detailed reply isn't given or at least largely incorporated into JB's response then we will know we have a problem.....problem with management ...not with the business.

[nocents] 29/1/2024 19:44

All shareholders who want something from Trinity should be actively putting their views to them-by email or letter- and not just saying what they want. Or it is circular wishing.
Andrew ..thanks for the info. Good that you respond to SR’s points I feel. I personally don’t know what’s right, but I have asked for a sale of Galeota. Not that my opinion is likely to make a difference but as part of a group , it holds more water. Shareholders can only lie idle for so long, and management have to -imo-make 2024 the the turning point that they promised 2023 would be and it backfired. Sale or partial sale . Proceeds to shareholders and its 4 obligatory BA wells.
Not that me saying it here makes a difference-just to encourage our communication of what we want.
[e-mail]
Patrick D’Ancona
Or write to Nick Clayton at the Trinity office or solicitors.
As always, just my opinion and how I strongly feel about being proactive. Take or leave.

[aqc888] 29/1/2024 19:26

That would be an “extra extra special dividend”.
Here’s a Ben Graham quote that is rather pertinent to Trinity at the moment after the Jacobin shenanigans…

“Experience teaches that the time to buy stocks is when their price is unduly depressed by temporary adversity.” - Ben Graham

[pavey ark] 29/1/2024 16:59

This is getting more and more like the "burn the witch" sketch from Monty Python.

It is less than a month since the shallow offshore fiscal reform came into effect and this renders everything that went before almost meaningless.
Rather obviously the FDP is very important and valuable as it was an independent review by a respected agent (just like a house survey).

The $200m drilling rig looks rather ridiculous now but there were other equally grandiose schemes about at the time and the current management weren't in anything like in full control when these were proposed.

No matter what is done with Galeota everything changes with the SPT reform.
If things work out and they do get 7000 bpd (even for the first year) this involves a saving of $25m - $30m in SPT payment.
Even if Galeota is a large and valuable asset and even if all sorts of deals and arrangement had been previously envisaged the figures involved as a result of the fiscal reform makes these plans redundant.

Can't say the management have covered themselves in glory but they have not had anything like a reasonable amount of time to show us what they can do with the excellent hand they have now been dealt ........but I must stress that the clock is ticking.

just to remove any doubt.... I want all of Galeota (including Trintes) sold for much gold.
$15m-$20m retained for development of onshore drilling and everything else returned to shareholders.....as a special dividend.

[nocents] 29/1/2024 16:06

Does this FDP with a $200m albatross around its neck make Galeota far less attractive then?
Surely Trin would have to apply for an alternative FDP with different terms in order to have something sellable?

[strathroyal] 29/1/2024 15:28

Thanks Andrew,

Regarding Galeota, I think most of us who contribute to this thread would prefer an outright sale but I'm assuming at the moment that a farm-in is more likely or what was the point of the expenditure on the Galeota survey as surely an outright buyer would prefer to do their own research?

I've thrown in the argument about the large shareholders as I feel that this possibility is largely being overlooked. There does seem to be an assumption that these shareholders can change management fairly easily but if that was the case, why haven't they already done so? The recent woeful share price performance has occured in a period of relatively high oil prices so there is little excuse for management's inability to massage this higher.

[nocents] 29/1/2024 14:32

An interesting post SR

[strathroyal] 29/1/2024 13:45

AB - An excellent presentation as usual but I do find it somewhat lopsided as though you have only completed the left hand side of a SWOT analysis. The assets may well have a value somewhere around your estimate but that does not mean that a bidder would pay that price. A few of us on here have been invested in REITs and we have seen a number of bids, all well below NAV largely because of weak management and an inability to sweat their assets, two failings shared with TRIN.

It seems to me that they are at least 3 weaknesses/threats apparent with TRIN which would reduce the value of any bid. Firstly you've got Galeota, definitely not a Hummingbird, more of an Albatross. I imagine that there are drilling obligations with the licence and possibly performance guarantees. I don't recall seeing any details of these but as they are included with BA (obligation to drill 4 wells), surely they are present in Galeota? Having decided that they can't develop this themselves, presumably the Petrofac study has been completed with a view to a farm in so that a sale remains the least likely outcome. The T & T government will no doubt consider that they have done their bit with SPT reform and will now expect TRIN to get this project underway.

Secondly, there is the abysmal drilling record. Nocents can recall the Eldorado failure, the three conventional wells drilled previously produced sod oil, and every time Jacobin is updated, it's downgraded. JB's claim that the seismic investment has been justified is difficult to accept, albeit didn't cost a fortune.

Thirdly, you've got the large shareholders who basically control the eventual outcome. It would be surprising if they were not as dissatisfied with events as the smaller shareholders and pondering a change of management. Whilst it would be very surprising if they were to accept a low cash offer, it is far more conceivable that they would look to introduce new management by facilitating an all share takeover by a medium sized oil company with respected management. This would entail a comparatively low initial bid with the prospective of getting their investment back over a period of time as the new management successfully exploits the obvious potential.

[pavey ark] 29/1/2024 07:36

I've posted this link as there was some sort of block on Andrew posting it.

[pavey ark] 27/1/2024 11:11

A couple of dull, boring, non emotive bookkeeping points.

1 . I've been looking at the price of Brent last year Vs the realised price to TRIN.
Q2 looks a bit strange with a very large discount.
Reasons for the large discount were mumbled but things seem to have returned to an average of c. 15% both onshore and Trintes in Q3, Q4.

2. The H1 figures last year would have included an onshore SPT for Q4 in 2022.There will be an offshore SPT sum in Q1/H1 figures as these payments are three months retrospectively applied.

3. The "capital allocation policy" is based on operational cash flow and that looks like reaching C. $12m ( guided by management and H2 looking better than H1.

Note: The "written in stone" remark related to the second dividend payment of 1p
By my calculations if the "capital allocation policy" is fully enacted then a c. 1p additional payment is due in respect of 2023 .....we will see !!??

Brent is on the up and now at $83.5 ....An average of $80 gives a realised price of $68 to Trin.
The H1 2023 figure was $65 with offshore SPT to pay.

[nocents] 27/1/2024 09:47

Andrew. Do you know when the 1p dividend is due? Thanks.